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Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks (9-14) host Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors (12-10) on Saturday evening. The game is a rematch from Thursday's tilt, which Golden State won 147-116. Dallas is a dismal 2-7 at home this season, with Golden State entering at 4-5 in road games. The Mavericks will aim to snap a losing skid of seven of the last eight games overall. Kevon Looney (ankle) and James Wiseman (wrist) are out for Golden State, while forward Eric Paschall (knee) is questionable. 

Tip-off is set for 8:30 p.m. ET at American Airlines Center. The latest Warriors vs. Mavericks odds from William Hill Sportsbook list Dallas as a four-point favorite. The over-under for total points is set at 231.5. Before making any Mavericks vs. Warriors picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it returned over $5,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks last season. The model is up nearly $8,100 over the past two-plus seasons. Dating back to last season, it is also on a stunning 73-44 roll on top-rated picks against the spread. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Warriors vs. Mavs. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are several NBA odds and betting trends for Mavs vs. Warriors:

  • Warriors vs. Mavericks spread: Mavericks -4
  • Warriors vs. Mavericks over-under: 231.5 points
  • Warriors vs. Mavericks money line: Mavericks -175, Warriors +155
  • GSW: The Warriors are 6-4 against the spread in the last 10 games
  • DAL: The Mavericks are 3-7 against the spread in the last 10 games

Why the Warriors can cover

Curry remains an elite offensive force, shooting 41 percent on 11 3-point attempts per game and averaging 28.2 points and 6.1 assists per contest. He is the centerpiece of Golden State's attack, though Andrew Wiggins has taken a step forward, averaging 17.7 points per game. The Warriors are a top-eight team in turnover rate (13.7 percent), assist rate (66.4 percent), assist-to-turnover ratio (1.91) and free throw rate offensively, utilizing a varied attack. 

On the defensive end, Golden State is a top-10 team in points allowed per possession (1.09), and the Warriors rank near the top of the league in shooting efficiency allowed and turnover creation. Dallas is a poor defensive team that struggles to rebound, and the Warriors can draw from the experience of bludgeoning the Mavericks on Thursday.

Why the Mavericks can cover

Dallas is undoubtedly struggling, but the team has a lofty baseline. Doncic is one of the best offensive creators in the NBA, averaging 27.2 points and 9.4 assists per game, and the Mavericks have strong secondary options. As a team, the Mavericks commit a turnover on only 12.2 percent of possessions, top-three in the NBA, and Dallas also has a top-10 free throw creation rate. 

In this matchup, Dallas is facing a team in Golden State that is strongly below-average on the glass, ranking in the bottom three in both offensive rebound rate (22.8 percent) and defensive rebound rate (71.6 percent). Finally, Golden State is last in the NBA in preventing its opponents from shooting free throws, and the Mavericks should be able to exploit that weakness.

How to make Mavericks vs. Warriors picks

SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, with the simulations projecting 224 points. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can get that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Mavericks vs. Warriors? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks.