The Houston Rockets outlasted the Golden State Warriors in perhaps the most memorable game of the 2018 NBA Playoffs to take a 3-2 lead in the Western Conference finals. But they will be short-handed without injured point guard Chris Paul for Game 6 on Saturday (9 p.m. ET), when they will have an opportunity to eliminate the Warriors in Oakland. The Warriors are 12-point favorites and the over-under for total points scored is set at 212.5.

Before you lock in your picks, see what SportsLine senior analyst Josh Nagel has to say. The Reno-based handicapper uses a combination of relevant data, eye tests and betting-market knowledge to form winning NBA picks.

His expertise has paid off in the 2018 NBA Playoffs; he has posted a 15-4 mark in spread picks. He also has been zeroed in on these clubs, with an record of 10-3 in ATS plays when either Golden State or Houston is involved.

Nagel knows the key question is whether the Rockets have the personnel and ability to avoid an emotional letdown following the loss of Paul in order to stand a chance in Game 6.

The veteran point guard has come up huge down the stretch in the past two games. He scored 18 of his 20 points in the second half of Thursday's 98-94 home victory, including two long 3-pointers as the shot clock expired to deflate Golden State's defense. He also had 27 points and four assists in Houston's 95-92 Game 4 upset in Oakland.

James Harden has missed 20 consecutive 3-point attempts and finished with 19 points Thursday. The MVP front-runner will undoubtedly have to give a big performance Saturday and get help from Houston's role players. Eric Gordon picked up the slack with 24 points in Game 5.

Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson combined for 74 points in Game 5, but the Warriors got only four points from their reserves. 

Nagel knows the line in this game is way off. He's sharing why, and which side to back, exclusively at SportsLine.

Will the Warriors regroup and roll to a blowout win to force a Game 7, or will the Rockets find a way to fight until the final buzzer? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of Warriors-Rockets you should be all over, all from a seasoned analyst on a 15-4 roll.