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The Week 17 NFL schedule brings some crucial matchups on Sunday afternoon, including Bills vs. Eagles at 4:25 p.m. ET. Two of the league's premier quarterbacks will go head-to-head when Josh Allen (Bills) faces Jalen Hurts (Eagles). Allen, who has thrown 25 touchdowns this season, is +139 to throw at least two touchdown passes in that showdown. SportsLine's proven computer model is taking the Over for Allen, and it also revealed prop picks for Hurts and Patriots quarterback Drake Maye. 

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 17 on a 53-37 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Top Week 17 NFL quarterback props

  • Drake Maye, Patriots, Under 249.5 passing yards (-111)
  • Josh Allen, Bills, Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+139)
  • Jalen Hurts, Eagles, Over 32.5 rushing yards (-109)

Drake Maye, Patriots, Under 249.5 passing yards

Maye is coming off a monster performance against Baltimore last week, completing 31 of 44 passes for 380 yards. However, he only had 155 yards against Buffalo in his previous game, and the model does not expect him to need a big performance against the lowly Jets on Sunday afternoon. The Patriots are 13.5-point favorites in this matchup, so they can likely take control of the game early and coast to a victory. New York has the fifth-worst run defense in the league and has been much better against the pass, which is why the model is projecting 240 yards for Maye on Sunday.  

Josh Allen, Bills, Over 1.5 passing touchdowns

The Bills and Eagles square off in one of the top games on Sunday afternoon, and Buffalo will need a big performance from its star quarterback. Allen finished with zero touchdown passes against Cleveland last week, but he had six total touchdown passes in back-to-back wins over the Bengals and Patriots in his previous two games. He also had three touchdown throws against Tampa Bay in November, so he has a high ceiling. DraftKings is offering +139 odds on this prop, providing value given the model's projection of 1.61 passing touchdowns.   

Jalen Hurts, Eagles, Over 32.5 rushing yards

Hurts also needs a strong performance on Sunday to keep pace with Allen and the Bills. The Eagles quarterback is only averaging 27.7 rushing yards per game, but he tends to step up and run the ball more in crucial moments. He had 40 rushing yards on seven carries against the Commanders last week, averaging 5.7 yards per carry. The model has a similar projection for Hurts on Sunday, as he is finishing with 37 rushing yards on 7.7 carries in the latest simulations.