Corner Picks: Best bets for Napoli-Crotone, Leicester City-Manchester City and Aston Villa-Fulham

Corner Picks looks to keep the ball rolling this weekend.

By Tom Fornelli

Apr 2, 2021 at 1:24 pm ET • 3 min read

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The international break is finally over, and we can get back to good old league play. Don't get me wrong, I don't have anything against international play on its own. I like it. It's just, it's difficult to bet the matches, and as Bayern Munich fans can attest to, you spend a lot of time worrying about one of your star players getting seriously hurt in a match against some tiny nation you can't point to on a map.

Also, I have selfish reasons for not liking this international break because I was hot going into it. Now we're entering the weekend with some teams having more players returning from international duty than others, and you don't know how that will impact a team. Toss in a pandemic that adds another layer of question marks to everything, and handicapping matches becomes even more difficult than it already is.

So my official advice is as follows: although I believe in these picks as much as I do any pick I publish in this column, maybe only bet half of what you'd usually bet this week. Give yourself, as well as the players, a chance to get their bearings back.

1. Napoli vs. Crotone, Saturday, 9 a.m, ESPN+

Another reason I wasn't thrilled with the international break? Napoli had been playing its best soccer of the season. Napoli were knocked out of the Europa League embarrassingly and immediately responded by winning four of their next five in Serie A, with a crazy (in the fun sense) 3-3 draw with Sassuolo mixed in. It's a team that was finally approaching full health for the first time since winning five of six to open the season. The good news for Napoli is they're now back in the Champions League race in Italy, and the team gets back another of their attacking options in Hirving Lozano after he missed time with an injury.

The Napoli team that takes the pitch on Saturday morning should be full strength, and they'll be facing a Crotone team that's been the worst in Italy all year long. It's also a Crotone team that's been especially horrific on the road, allowing an average of 2.02 expected goals (xG) in 14 away matches. I can see Napoli hitting four on their own, but I could also see Napoli allowing a goal, as they've shown weakness at the back all season. The Pick: Over 3.5 (+120)

2. Leicester City vs. Manchester City, Saturday, 12:30 p.m, NBCSN

This is a bit of a shift considering how I've been betting Man City matches lately, but I have a gut feeling that City could be more impacted by the break than other Premier League teams. Not only do they return to league play with the Champions League quarterfinals looming, but they do so with a commanding 14-point lead in the table. It won't shock me if Pep Guardiola puts a bit more emphasis on his UCL match against Borussia Dortmund than Leicester.

Also, we have to consider how City are basically an entire roster of players returning from international duty. Leicester have their own internationals as well, but they're still likely to be the better-rested team on Saturday. Plus, while Man City essentially has the Premier League sewn up, Leicester still has to fight to hold theur place in the top four. I don't know if that alone will be enough to win this match -- it's still Man freaking City, after all -- but I do think it'll be enough to get Leicester on the score sheet. The Pick: Both Teams to Score (-105)

3. Aston Villa vs. Fulham, Sunday, 11:30 a.m, NBCSN

There are two Aston Villas. There's the Aston Villa with Jack Grealish, and there's the Aston Villa without Jack Grealish. The Villa with Grealish picks up 36 points in 22 matches and averages 1.56 xG per match. The Villa without Grealish picks up only five points in six matches while averaging 0.92 xG. Well, Jack Grealish is set to return on Sunday, which means that Villa's attack is likely to come back with him. That's great news for a Villa that once dreamt of finishing in a Europa League spot. It's not great news for Fulham, which still find themselves fighting for their Premier League life at the bottom of the table.

For a while, it looked as if Fulham had turned a corner, but recent results have dipped again, and the team's attack has never looked fierce. As long as we're getting Aston Villa at +110 or better, I think it's a terrific play. The Pick: Aston Villa (+128)