Corner Picks: Best bets for Premier League weekend as Manchester United host Arsenal and Chelsea visit Burnley

Corner Picks looks to keep the ball rolling this weekend.

By Tom Fornelli

Oct 30, 2020 at 11:43 am ET • 3 min read

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If this column were a club in the Premier League, it would be staring relegation in the face. I've somehow managed to go 0-6 over the last two weeks, and I'm not sure I could do it again if I tried.

I'm running so cold that when I bet both teams to score in a match between two of the most potent attacks in the league, it ends in a scoreless draw.

But, the worst thing I could do at this point is to change my approach. The reasoning behind my picks has been solid, even if the results haven't been lately. So I'm heading into the weekend fully expecting to have a winning week, but if you're not as confident, you can always fade me! All that matters to me is that you win.

1. Burnley vs. Chelsea: Over 2.5 (-160)

It might seem somewhat crazy to be taking an over in a match involving Burnley. After all, there aren't many attacks as feeble as this Burnley side so far this season. Burnley have scored three goals, tied with Sheffield United for fewest in the league. Of course, Burnley has played one fewer match, but it doesn't excuse their poor performance.

I think we're due for a course correction, though. Burnley have only 2.98 xG through five matches, but they have gotten off 55 shots, more than four other teams despite playing one less match, and the same as Leicester. More importantly, Burnley's on-target rate of 32.7% ranks 14th in the league. Yet, despite all of this, they have a shot conversion rate of only 5.5%. Only Sheffield United's 5.4% is worse. This is because too many of Burnley's shots are fired from outside the box, and they don't have players who can score from there consistently. This is a team that needs to get crosses in and get its head on the ball (25.5% of Burnley's shots are headers, the second-highest rate in the league, behind only West Ham's 27.3%). I think Burnley will start getting a bit luckier soon, and it could be this weekend. That doesn't mean they're going to win this match, but I do believe it can get on the scoresheet. And, if it doesn't, there's still a good enough chance Chelsea scores three on its own to make this play worth your time.

2. Newcastle vs. Everton: Newcastle (+270)

Newcastle has been a side defying their numbers for a while now. Even last season, this was a team that finished with an xG differential of -25.2, which was the second-worst mark in the Premier League, and still managed to comfortably finish 13th, a full 10 points outside the relegation zone. It's a team with a style of play that cedes possession and is comfortable taking on shots but is also efficient with the limited opportunities it gets. Last year Newcastle scored 38 goals on only 33.1 xG (the lowest mark in the Premier League). This season, Newcastle's 6.05 xG ranks 17th in the league, but they're outperforming that mark again, scoring eight goals, thanks to a shot conversion rate of 16.3% (13.9% is league average). At some point, it stops being luck, and it's just a product of the way a team plays.

We've reached that point. But the price on Newcastle in this spot? The price reflects the underlying numbers. Everton, meanwhile, have performed exceptionally well, but there are signs of regression in their future. So taking a flyer on a Newcastle team that has consistently proven it can outperform its metrics against a team that hasn't is an excellent value play.

3. Manchester United vs. Arsenal: Manchester United (+101)

It's difficult to keep track of when Manchester United are good again or when they're a disaster, so I've stopped trying. The Red Devils are coming off a 5-0 romp over RB Leipzig in the Champions League that has everybody feeling great about themselves, and I think that confidence could carry over here. United have not been great to start the season in the Premier League. They've picked up only seven points in five matches and allowed three more goals than they have scored. At the same time, they are also creating more chances to score than most other clubs, and they're getting plenty of shots on net.

The dam has to break at some point, and it might have against Leipzig earlier this week. Arsenal, meanwhile, have looked like a team capable of beating the sides they're better than, but that's it. Their three wins have come against Fulham, West Ham and Sheffield United. Their losses have come to Liverpool, Manchester City and Leicester City. Manchester United are much closer to the latter category of opponent than the former.