Draft Prep: Breakouts 1.0

Which players are ready to go to the next level? Al Melchior highlights the dozen whom he thinks have the greatest potential to increase their Fantasy value.

Finding value in drafts and auctions never gets old. It's nice to find under-appreciated players who wind up making a contribution -- in other words, it's good to hit the mark on some sleepers. It's even better when you wind up with players who bust out to a level far beyond anyone's expectations, regardless of whether they are under the radar or not.

These are the breakout players, and if you drafted Manny Machado, A.J. Pollock or Dallas Keuchel last season, you know what I'm talking about. Keuchel required a modest investment in most leagues; Machado and Pollock could be had with a mid-round pick in standard mixed leagues. All three wound up producing like first- or second-round talents.

One doesn't have to be a top 20 player to be a breakout. Chris Archer was one. So were Adam Eaton and Brandon Crawford. At an even more modest level, there was Welington Castillo and Justin Turner.

Accordingly, not everyone who made the cut for my top dozen breakout candidates is destined for an early-round level of production. Most of these players are likely to fall short of that echelon, but the ones who have not been relevant to standard mixed league owners have a chance to become staples in that format.

So exactly how good can these 12 players be in 2016? I'll break their upsides down, one by one.

Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber made bigger splashes, but Addison Russell -- another of the Cubs' talented rookies -- made some impressive progress of his own. The 21-year-old shortstop had an up-and-down year, but he started to shine after the All-Star break. Over the first 34 games of the second half, Russell slashed .294/.336/.471, as he cut back on strikeouts and made harder contact. Over his final 37 games, the strikeouts started to mount (41 Ks in 127 plate appearances), but he maintained his gains in power, bashing four home runs and six doubles.

Russell hit flyballs 16 feet farther on average after the break (per BaseballHeatMaps.com), so his increased power numbers were no fluke. Now he needs to sustain those gains while making more frequent contact, and he has shown at various times throughout his young career that he is capable of it. In taking the next step, Russell could couple 15-to-20 home runs with a batting average in the .270s, and at shortstop, that could launch him into the top seven at the position.

Jose Ramirez was given the chance to hold down the starting shortstop job to begin the 2015 season, but in reality, he was a placeholder for Francisco Lindor. He didn't do anything to slow down Lindor's arrival, batting .180 with one home run and eight stolen bases before getting optioned in early June. With Lindor firmly in place shortly thereafter, it was easy to forget about Ramirez, who resurfaced after the July trade deadline. He got 40 starts over the final two months, mostly splitting time between second and third base.

Given a second chance, Ramirez did more than play out the string. He chased pitches outside the strike zone less often, but when he did swing at those offerings, he had the second-highest contact rate in the second half, just behind Erick Aybar (min. 150 plate appearances). Ramirez also added some thump, posting a .179 Isolated Power after his callup, as compared to an .059 mark in the first half.

Ramirez was also better defensively when he returned, so he could be a fit at second or third base in 2016. He could also fill in as an outfielder, at least during Michael Brantley's (shoulder) absence. Though Lindor stole his thunder, Ramirez himself is still a prospect (albeit a lower-ceiling one), as he is just 23. With the potential for a real chance to play a full season at the major league level, Ramirez could arrive as a source of steals, a high batting average and mid-range power.

One has to wonder what could have been for Jake Lamb if he hadn't injured his foot a dozen games into the 2015 season. Starting off with a .414 batting average before his injury, Lamb had set himself up to regress, but from the time he returned in June until the season's conclusion, he showed little power. Rookies have been known to need to time to adjust to the majors, but Lamb's minor league résumé -- including 37 home runs and 84 doubles in 931 at-bats -- created the expectation of some power right away.

Lamb has profiled as more of a doubles hitter than a home run slugger, but even his 15 doubles and five triples in 350 at-bats was a bit disappointing. That overshadowed the things that went well. Lamb's combination of a high line drive rate and a low popup rate shows that he was making good contact, and they fell in line with his minor league trends. He also had the 13th-lowest soft contact rate (per FanGraphs) among qualifying hitters in the second half, ranking just behind the likes of Paul Goldschmidt, Mike Trout and Bryce Harper. Somehow that translated into only 16 extra-base hits in 225 at-bats.

By all indications, Lamb's process was good last season, and the signs are there that he could be a more prolific power hitter. It's unlikely he will be drafted in standard mixed leagues, but he is good candidate to stash as a reserve round pick or to claim off waivers at the first sign of a good start.

Like Lamb, Nick Castellanos had a very good second half in terms of minimizing soft contact. In fact, only five hitters had a lower rate after the break. Whereas Lamb's second half was surprisingly void of power, Castellanos saw a payoff in the form of nine home runs and 20 doubles in 245 at-bats. Because his strikeout-to-ratio was still a dismal 0.27, Castellanos barely cracked the top 30 in Fantasy value among second basemen for the second half.

He may never be much for taking walks, but Castellanos hasn't always been a big strikeout hitter, at least not in the minors. Fewer Ks could be mean a big jump in Fantasy value, and Castellanos should be guaranteed to improve on the 42 runs he scored last season. It would be a reach to take Castellanos late in a standard mixed points league draft, but he could be relevant in Rotisserie formats. He's worth a late-round flier there.

The big questions surrounding George Springer heading into 2015 were about whether he was ever going to be a stolen base threat and how much damage his batting average would do to his Fantasy value. Despite missing more than two months with a fractured right wrist, Springer silenced his skeptics but dramatically reducing his strikeout rate, raising his batting average by 45 points and becoming relevant in the stolen base category.

However, Springer was not only hurt by the missed time but also by a decline in power. Coming off a wrist injury didn't help his late season numbers, but even before that, Springer was hitting line drives to all fields rather than pulling flyballs over the fence. Springer's new approach did wonders for his batting average, but limited him to 16 home runs in 388 at-bats.

After having the offseason to further heal his wrist, who's to say that Springer can't have the best of both worlds, using his raw power to hit 40 home runs while maintaining a respectable batting average? Even if he were to remain on a similar pace to that of 2015, Springer would likely be a top 15 outfielder this season, but it wouldn't take much for him to break out as a true elite.

If you compare Christian Yelich's stat lines from the last two seasons, he appears to have hit a plateau. In reality, Yelich had two seasons in 2015, and from this perspective, it was a year of tremendous growth. The first quarter of the season consisted of two deep slumps bookending a stint on the disabled list for a lower back strain. Yelich spent the rest of the season doing nothing but getting on base.

The Marlins' outfielder has always been good at getting hits on balls in play, but for most of last season, he was even better at spraying line drives. (He also popped out one time all season, further highlighting his ability to make solid contact.) Once Yelich was healthy, he parsed his strikeout rate. Over his final 102 games, he struck out at a 17 percent rate, as compared to 21 percent the previous season.

Yelich did flat line as a home run and stolen base producer. As long as he puts more than 60 percent of his hit balls on the dirt, he will have trouble advancing as a power hitter. He did show some pop three seasons ago in Double-A, but owners shouldn't count on a power explosion. Yelich is an efficient base stealer, so there is clearly room for him to improve on last season's 16 swipes. Add that to the possibility of a full season of health and a lower K-rate, and Yelich could be ready to bust a move into the top 20 outfielders.

Taijuan Walker didn't exactly set the Fantasy world on fire over the last three months of 2015. In fact, his mediocre showing down the stretch was particularly disappointing given what he did just before it. Between May 29 and July 1, Walker reeled off seven consecutive quality starts with a combined ERA of 1.68, limiting hitters to a .539 OPS in the process.

While Walker's results over his final 13 starts were far less impressive, there was some carryover from his dominant midseason stretch. Control had never been Walker's strong suit, and it was an issue for him early in 2015, when he walked 23 batters over his first 43 innings. From his May 29 start forward, Walker threw 67 percent of his pitches for strikes and issued 17 walks over 126 2/3 innings.

Then again, he allowed as many home runs over those innings as walks. Walker also saw his strikeout and whiff rates droop over the season's waning weeks. A slight drop in velocity hinted at possible fatigue, but regardless of the reason for Walker's late-season troubles, he gave us a glimpse of his potential to dominate back in June. Walker has already kicked his walk habit, and his dip in strikeouts looked like an aberration. Could a reduction of his home run rate be next? That may be all that stands between Walker and Fantasy ace status.

With the Dodgers and Marlins, Nathan Eovaldi had gained a reputation for not being able to harness his mid-t0-upper 90s fastball for great results. He lived down to that reputation during his first three months with the Yankees, as he rolled into the end of June with a 4.81 ERA.

Then something notable happened in July. It wasn't until the ninth inning of Eovaldi's fifth start of the month until he gave up an extra-base hit. He finished the month with a 3.09 ERA and a .326 slugging percentage allowed. In June, Eovaldi started employing a splitter more often, and by July, it had started to pay dividends in a higher ground ball rate. Better yet, Eovaldi increased his fastball velocity as the season wore on, and he notched seven or more strikeouts in each of his last four starts.

Eovaldi missed the final month with elbow inflammation, so we will have to wait until this spring to see if he continues these trends. He had already become a mixed league-relevant pitcher with his surging ground ball rate, but his final starts from last season might portend an even bigger change down the road. It's time to start thinking of Eovaldi as a top 40 starting pitcher with the chance to be something even greater.

Eovaldi wasn't the only pitcher who got help from ground balls late last season. Rick Porcello spent six seasons with the Tigers, and much of his success there was due to his ability to induce grounders. In his first four months with the Red Sox, Porcello's sudden lack of ground balls was a major factor in his 5.81 ERA. He induced grounders at a 45 percent rate and yielded 20 home runs in 114 2/3 innings.

In early August, the Red Sox placed Porcello on the disabled list with a triceps injury, but when he returned, he was a markedly different pitcher. He threw his sinker more often and with more sink, and accordingly, he allowed only five home runs over 57 1/3 innings. Porcello also approached the strikeout-per-inning threshold over these starts, but not because he substantially improved his swing-and-miss rate. Instead, he became adept at getting called strikes, particularly on his sinker.

Not many pitchers can sustain a called strike rate above 20 percent, but if Porcello can, we could see a better version of him than we ever saw when he was with the Tigers. For the first time in his career, Porcello could be more than just a streaming option for standard mixed league owners.

Let's take a look at one more pitcher who might be saved by his sinker. Robbie Ray barely threw his during the first half of 2015, and despite a measly 37 percent ground ball rate, he didn't seem to need it. Through eight starts, Ray had a 2.16 ERA, as he reaped all of the benefits of a flyball-heavy approach (.259 BABIP) with none of the hazards (two home runs in 50 innings).

Beginning with the first start after the All-Star break, Ray started fixing what wasn't broken, introducing his sinker as a major part of his arsenal. He saw only modest improvement at first, but by mid-August, Ray was starting to look like a ground ball pitcher. Over his final 10 starts, Ray induced grounders on 54 percent of hit balls, as he was not only throwing his sinker 30 percent of the time (per BrooksBaseball.net), but he was now getting grounders on his slider at a 52 percent rate (as opposed to a 35 percent rate over his previous 13 starts).

Not only was Ray getting more grounders as a result of using his sinker and slider, but he was getting more swings and misses, too. Yet, even with high ground ball and strikeout rates, Ray could only muster a 4.14 ERA over those 10 starts. He could stand to throw more strikes, but Ray's biggest obstacle to better performance was a .353 BABIP during that stretch. Nothing in Ray's batted ball profile suggests that he should be that bad at hit prevention. Coming off a year in which Ray increased his velocity and became a ground ball pitcher, it looks like 2016 could be an exciting year to be a Ray owner in Fantasy. I don't expect he'll be drafted in standard mixed leagues often, but I do expect that he will have at least low-end value in those formats.

Kevin Gausman is the lone holdover from last season's breakout list. I was fully prepared for Gausmania to sweep through the Fantasy community in 2015. Instead, he started the season in the Orioles' bullpen, and then spent a month-and-a-half on the disabled list with shoulder tendinitis. Gausman made a few starts before the All-Star break, and finally, he settled into the rotation in the second half.

It wasn't just an unclear role and injury that put Gausman's breakout on hold. He did a fair job of minimizing contact, but when batters got ahold of his pitches, they typically cranked them. Flyballs hit off Gausman during his starts traveled 296 feet on average (per BaseballHeatMaps.com), which would have been one of the longest distances on the leaderboard, if Gausman had pitched enough to qualify. As a starter, he allowed 15 home runs and allowed opponents to slug .441 against him.

On a positive note, if Gausman can limit extra-base hits, he could take a big step forward, since he was neither wild nor contact-prone. As recently as 2014, opponents slugged a mere .368 against him, offering hope that Gausman can recover. He profiled as a breakout candidate a year ago because he had shown the ability to strike batters out, pitch with control and limit hard contact, but just not simultaneously. The same holds true now, and Gausman will still be just 25 on opening day. At least for one more season, he is worth a speculative late-round pick in standard mixed leagues.

Anthony DeSclafani entered 2015 with considerably less fanfare than Gausman, but over the last two months of the season, he cut a similar profile. As he pitched more in the center of the strike zone, DeSclafani drew more swings -- and got more whiffs on his fastball. That enabled him to exceed the strikeout-per-inning threshold as well as reduce his walks dramatically. The long ball was DeSclafani's biggest problem, and aside from a pair of homers allowed at Dodger Stadium, the rest over that period were at Great American Ball Park.

That could be a hard problem for DeSclafani to overcome as long as he is a Red. Then again, he could be relevant in standard mixed leagues just the way he is. A strikeout pitcher with elite control who has issues with home runs at his home venue ... that sounds a lot like Michael Pineda. The Yankee righty was a popular breakout candidate a year ago, and DeSclafani does have much in common with him, but he doesn't share his health concerns.

Neither DeSclafani nor Pineda had a good 2015, but in his first two healthy seasons, we saw how good Pineda could be. If DeSclafani can maintain his late-season strikeout rate, he could sport a mid-3.00s ERA with a WHIP below 1.10. He deserves standard mixed league consideration and should be available in the later rounds.