Fantasy Baseball Prospects Report: Here comes the Judge?
Aaron Judge's power binge has him closer to the big leagues than ever, but he still isn't one of Scott White's top five prospects to stash.
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The minor-leaguer gaining the most traction right now is Aaron Judge.
And it makes sense. He's having the most productive stretch of his career, homering nine times in his last 16 games to more than double his season total, and even though Carlos Beltran's hamstring injury turned out to be more of a cramp than a strain, it still served as a reminder just how close Judge is to breaking through.
All he needs is for a 39-year-old to pull something -- or not even that, really. It's not like the 40-year-old Alex Rodriguez is setting the world on fire at DH, after all. Sooner or later, the sub-.500 Yankees will look toward the future, and when that happens, Judge figures to be the first man up.
So he's surely one of my "five on the verge," right? I mean, with A.J. Reed and Lucas Giolito getting the call in the last week, you'd think I could find a spot for him. But just because he's arriving soon doesn't mean I'll want him when he does.
Truth is I'm still underwhelmed by the overall production, from a 24-year-old especially. Yes, with this recent home run binge, he's finally looking like the power hitter he was billed to be. But what if it's just a hot streak? After all, his seven home runs in his first 228 at-bats were more in line with the 20 he hit in 478 last year.
And then there's the issue of him striking out more than once every game. Granted, he wouldn't be the first minor-league slugger to struggle with strikeouts -- Kris Bryant and George Springer come to mind -- but Bryant and Springer both also hit well over .300, giving reason to believe their strikeouts wouldn't be their downfall. Judge is hitting .266.
He's also 6-feet-7, which gives him an especially large strike zone that minor-league pitchers, still honing their control, presumably haven't exploited to the extent major-league pitchers will. It doesn't mean Judge is doomed to failure, but again, I'd feel better if he dominated for more than just a two-week stretch.
Maybe he will have by the time he's called up, and maybe he'll go on to be the next Adam Dunn (in a good way, I mean). It's a matter of perspective, too. If Tyler Glasnow was the one called up to start Saturday instead of Chad Kuhl, Judge would be one of my "five on the verge," and this intro would have a decidedly different tone.
But for now, I'll take this opportunity to express that my interest in him is only a few degrees above lukewarm -- basically just in five-outfielder leagues.
Five on the verge
(These are the prospects most worth stashing in redraft leagues.)
Tyler Glasnow, SP, Pirates
2015 stats: 7-5, 2.39 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 109 1/3 IP, 43 BB, 136 K
2016 stats: 7-2, 1.70 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 90 IP, 51 BB, 105 K
That's right: The prospect I've recommended everybody stash since the start of the season was passed over again, this time for little-known pitch-to-contact type Chad Kuhl, and with his walk rate climbing -- he's at 7.6 per nine innings over his last four starts despite allowing a total of six hits during that stretch -- I can't say I'm terribly surprised. What can I say? I backed the wrong horse, albeit one still worth backing. My only solace is that Lucas Giolito, the more popular draft-and-stash, won't be sticking around for the Nationals.
Trea Turner, 2B, Nationals
2015 stats: .322 BA (454 AB), 8 HR, 29 SB, .828 OPS
2016 stats: .299 BA (250 AB), 5 HR, 22 SB, .831 OPS
How satisfied are the Nationals with the .228-hitting Danny Espinosa at shortstop? So satisfied that they're now in the process of transitioning Turner to center field. Great idea, guys! It's not like Turner's viability is tied to his shortstop eligibility or anything -- which, by the way, he doesn't have yet in CBSSports.com leagues thanks to his brief stint in the majors last year. He's a good enough hitter and base-stealer to factor anywhere and would still become dual-eligible as an outfielder, but here's hoping this is only a short-term measure.
Alex Bregman, SS, Astros
2015 stats: .294 BA (272 AB), 4 HR, .781 OPS, 29 BB, 30 K
2016 stats: .297 BA (236 AB), 14 HR, .975 OPS, 42 BB, 26 K
Word is Bregman is finally moving up to Triple-A following his appearance in the Texas League All-Star game Tuesday, and it's long overdue. Hopefully, the same won't be said for his move up to the majors if and when he proves too good for this level, but with Luis Valbuena's recent resurgence, he might be just as blocked at third base as at shortstop. It may not last, though, and it may not matter. As advanced as Bregman's approach is, I'm expecting him to put up silly numbers in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.
Jose Berrios, SP, Twins
2016 majors: 1-1, 10.20 ERA, 2.13 WHIP, 15 IP, 12 BB, 20 K
2016 minors: 7-3, 2.62 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 68 2/3 IP, 27 BB, 73 K
In case you missed it, the Twins have resorted to Tommy Milone in their starting rotation again, and their list of possible alternatives is shrinking. They've already tried the pedestrian Pat Dean, and now Phil Hughes has succumbed to season-ending shoulder surgery. It's only a matter of time before they go back to the most talented arm in the organization, and Berrios appears to be up to the challenge, allowing one hit over seven innings in his latest start Tuesday after allowing three hits over eight innings in his previous start.
Hunter Renfroe, OF, Padres
2015 stats: .272 BA (511 AB), 20 HR, .783 OPS, 37 BB, 132 K
2016 stats: .325 BA (320 AB), 18 HR, .942 OPS, 10 BB, 60 K
Jon Jay's broken forearm may not have immediate Fantasy implications, but it could hasten the arrival of Renfroe, who's doing a pretty good job of hastening it himself with a .351 batting average and 13 home runs in his past 185 at-bats. The 13th overall pick in the 2013 draft doesn't walk much but has cut down on his strikeouts enough that a lack of plate discipline may not be a major hindrance to him, especially given the surplus of power. The Padres might have a second Wil Myers in their lineup pretty soon here.
Five on the periphery
(These are some other players doing something of note.)
Amir Garrett, SP, Reds
2015 stats: 9-7, 2.44 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 140 1/3 IP, 55 BB, 133 K
2016 stats: 5-4, 1.81 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 89 2/3 IP, 36 BB, 87 K
In an organization with two legitimate top-of-the-line pitching prospects (Cody Reed and Robert Stephenson), it's Garrett who has put up the eye-popping stats. The former St. John's basketball player has made sweeping progress since turning to baseball full-time in 2014. He has some control issues to iron out, but honestly, what hard-throwing left-hander doesn't? He was recently promoted to Triple-A after mastering what's widely considered to be the most difficult transition up the minor-league ladder.
Ian Happ, OF, Cubs
2015 stats: .259 BA (251 AB), 9 HR, 10 SB, .822 OPS, 40 BB, 67 K
2016 stats: .322 BA (207 AB), 9 HR, 10 SB, .947 OPS, 49 BB, 70 K
The Cubs never seem to run out of hitters, do they? Their first pick (ninth overall) last year didn't receive much fanfare because ... well, there's only so much to go around. But particularly now that Willson Contreras has graduated to the majors, Happ has taken center stage, batting (ahem) .690 (20 for 29) with three homers and just one strikeout in his past nine games. And that's with a promotion to Double-A mixed in. He's 11 for 15 (.733) at that level. It gets better, too: While he's listed as an outfielder on CBSSports.com, second base is the position he's playing the most.
"Oh, what a player," teammate Billy McKinney told MLB.com. "I'm extremely impressed with him. The guy is just a great player, has a lot of feel for the game, plays great defense, and he's been swinging it. It's incredible how well he's been hitting the ball. What a steal the Cubs got getting him where they got him. It's a lot of fun to watch him play."
Phil Bickford, SP, Giants
2015 stats: 0-1, 2.01 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 22 1.3 IP, 6 BB, 32 K
2016 stats: 4-4, 2.54 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 71 IP, 18 BB, 89 K
The Giants may have another burgeoning ace in Bickford, a pitcher who was twice selected in the first round (most recently 18th overall by the Giants last year). His short-arm delivery gives his fastball added quickness and movement, which has helped him pile up strikeouts without sacrificing control. Seriously, his strikeout-to-walk ratio looks like the kind Noah Syndergaard used to put up in the minors. Through two starts at high Class A San Jose of the heavy-hitting California League, Bickford has 16.4 strikeouts per nine innings.
Chris Paddack, SP, Marlins
2015 stats: 4-3, 2.18 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 45 1/3 IP, 7 BB, 39 K
2016 stats: 2-0, 0.95 ERA, 0.39 WHIP, 28 1/3 IP, 2 BB, 48 K
Talk about under-the-radar. Baseball America didn't rank Paddack among the Marlins' top 10 prospects coming into the season, and that's considered to be one of the worst farm systems in the game. Perhaps it's not surprising given that he was only an eighth-round pick last June, but he wouldn't be right now, not after three straight hitless outings in which he recorded 28 strikeouts over 15 innings. Oh, and he issued just one walk during that stretch. Scary.
Rhys Hoskins, 1B, Phillies
2015 stats: .319 BA (498 AB), 17 HR, .913 OPS, 55 BB, 99 K
2016 stats: .289 BA (287 AB), 20 HR, .920 OPS, 27 BB, 78 K
Hoskins hasn't gotten much prospect hype either, in part because pure first basemen have so much riding on their bats, but he's not exactly caving under the pressure, already exceeding last year's home run total in 200 fewer at-bats. And he has been especially hot this month, batting .356 (36 for 101) with 11 home runs. If Tommy Joseph continues to slide, the 23-year-old could be a candidate to debut in the second half, having spent all of this season at Double-A.
















