16 Fantasy Football numbers to know for Week 12: Kirk Cousins opening it up
What are the most relevant numbers to know for every game going into Week 12? Chris Towers breaks them down game by game.
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Chris Towers
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Week 12 Rankings: Standard | PPR
Keeping up with 13 games in a week is a lot for your average Fantasy player to handle, so here is one key number to know for every game in the NFL in Week 11.
(Numbers from ProFootballFocus.com)
6.2
Matthew Stafford's average depth of target since Week 5
Even early in the season, Stafford wasn't exactly airing it out. His average depth of target was just 8.1 yards, 24th deepest in the league. However, the Lions have withdrawn even more, trying to make up for a sub-par defense and middling running game by slowing the game down and focusing on short, high-efficiency passes.
This can work, but Stafford needs his receivers to make big plays after the catch to pick up big chunks of yardage, and that's a risky proposition, especially against a defense like this one that has been so good at slowing down passing attacks. The Lions have become a bit too one-note in the passing game, and it would be nice to see Stafford try to air it out -- for Marvin Jones' sake if nothing else.
122.8
Kirk Cousins' passer rating on throws 20-plus yards down field
The most striking thing about last week's win over the Packers was just how dominant the Redskins' deep passing game was. He completed 3 of 4 passes 20-plus yards down field for 167 yards and a pair of scores, continuing a theme that has emerged all season long for Cousins. He ranks ninth in deep passing accuracy at 48.8 percent, after ranking 19th at 36.1 percent last season.
Cousins has already surpasses his total number of touchdowns on deep passes as well, and has increased his passer rating from 89.5 a year ago. The Cowboys' game plan is all about limiting the exposure of their relatively middling defense by dominating time of possession, so if Cousins is going to succeed against this defense, he'll probably need to hit on a few of these deep passes.
44.5
Percentage of Andrew Luck's dropbacks on which he is pressured
This could be a long day for the Colts' offense if Luck's concussion keeps him out of Thursday's game, as seems likely. As frustrating as he can be from time to time, more often than not Luck is making the most out of every pass attempt. An errant pass here and there is forgivable when you've got 300-pound men bearing down on you nearly every other time you drop back.
Luck's singular ability to make plays out of dire situations helps keep the Colts' offense afloat, and allows guys like T.Y. Hilton to make plays down the field they might not otherwise have had a chance at. With Scott Tolzien under center, it's going to be a lot harder for this offense to keep that up.
110.3
Marcus Mariota's passer rating under pressure since Week 5
The Titans have done a pretty good job keeping Mariota's jersey clean, but even when they haven't, he has continued to make big plays in the passing game. He has the fifth-highest passer rating in the NFL overall when pressured, averaging 6.8 yards per attempt with six touchdowns and only two interceptions, and he has been even better since really finding his form in Week 5.
Mariota leads the NFL in passer rating when pressured since Week 5, and that has helped explain his strong play in that stretch. The Bears' defense has actually been decent this season, but with the way Mariota is playing right now, it might not matter.
2.17
Chris Ivory's yards per carry after contact
Ivory is a violent runner who seeks out contact, and he ranked sixth in the NFL in yards per carry after contact a year ago and his 47 missed tackles ranked fourth. The Jaguars' sub-par offensive line assuredly holds some blame for Ivory's struggles, but he also just isn't making players miss these days either, ranking 43rd out of 47 running backs in yards per carry after contact, with only 10 missed tackles forced on 84 carries.
Even if T.J. Yeldon is forced to sit out this week, it's going to be hard to view Ivory as much more than a low-end Fantasy option for this week and moving forward.
10.1
Percent of Andy Dalton's non-A.J. Green targets thrown 20-plus yards down field
Dalton-to-Green has been one of the most productive downfield duos in the league this season. Dalton completed 10 of 20 deep passes to Green for 379 yards, and he looked his way often. The loss of Green is going to be felt in a lot of ways for Dalton and the Bengals' offense, but the lack of a home run threat might be the biggest way they miss him.
Brandon LaFell and Tyler Boyd are going to be asked to step up, and they have enough talent to at least be worth a look in Fantasy, but neither is likely to even come close to replicating Green, and the lack of a deep threat is just one way they will feel his absence.
155.8
Passer rating when Julio Jones was targeted vs. Patrick Peterson in last meeting
These two haven't locked horns since 2014, but Jones definitely got the best of his fellow Pro Bowler that time. Jones torched the Cardinals for 10 receptions and 189 yards, and was especially unstoppable when matched up against Peterson. He hauled in all eight passes thrown his way for 171 yards, including his lone touchdown of the day.
Peterson is one of the best in the business, and just held Stefon Diggs to 35 yards on five catches in Week 11, but as Jones showed him in 2014, he's a whole different beast.
90.3
Passer rating given up by Joe Haden in coverage
I point this out not because this is an especially good number for Haden -- it's the 40th-best among 81 qualified corners, which is to say, average. What is noteworthy about this number is that, among the four Browns' cornerbacks with at least 200 snaps played this season, that is the lowest passer rating any has allowed.
The Giants' passing game has been a disappointment this season, with Odell Beckham on pace for the worst numbers of his career. He has failed to top 50 yards in three of his past four games, but he shouldn't have much trouble getting going against this motley crew. If he can't, well, it might actually be time to start panicking.
2
Runs of 15-plus yards by Todd Gurley in Week 11
Gurley's success as a rookie was largely built on his ability to hit on big plays, something that has largely eluded him this season. That changed just a bit in Week 11, as he was able to rip off runs of 24 and 18 yards, his longest of the season. He has just six runs of at least 15 yards, with only 21.7 percent of his yards coming on such runs; he had 16 for 45.9 percent of his yards a year ago.
We saw signs of life from Gurley last week, and if he is going to close this disappointing season on a high note, this is as good an opportunity as any for him to build on it.
-29.4
49ers' pass blocking grade this season
This is an example of one team's greatest strength meeting the other's biggest weakness, and the Dolphins' defensive line should end up living in the backfield this week. That could make life tough for Colin Kaepernick and Carlos Hyde, who will have to create with Cameron Wake and Ndamukong Suh breathing down their necks.
The one thing to keep an eye on is whether the 49ers can take advantage of Miami's aggressiveness in the pass rush with read-option and play-action concepts. If not, it should be a long day for the 49ers.
-2.7
Texans' run defense grade
The Texans have been decent enough on defense in spite of the loss of J.J. Watt, but they may be feeling his absence against the run, where they rank just 25th per PFF. Those numbers may be skewed by a few bigger games earlier in the season, however, because the Texans have buckled down over the last three games, holding the Jaguars, Lions, and Raiders to just 168 yards combined over the last three games. That isn't exactly a murderer's row of rushing offenses, though holding the Raiders to only 30 games in Week 11 counts as a pretty big win at this point.
However, it is worth noting that the Raiders did gash the Texans with catches out of the backfield, as Latavius Murray and Jalen Richard hauled in eight catches for 109 yards in Week 11. The Texans are allowed 10.7 yards per catch to opposing running backs, and Melvin Gordon could continue to find success there, even if they keep him in check on the ground.
18.7
Mike Evans' slot snap percentage
The Seahawks' defense isn't exactly vulnerable anywhere, but you have to attack them somewhere, and you generally aren't going to do it on the outside of the field. Richard Sherman remains one of the best defensive backs around (59.1 passer rating in coverage), and DeShawn Shead has more than held his own so far this season. Those two play almost exclusively on the outside of the field, so if you're going to attack anyone on the Seahawks, it should probably be Jeremy Lane, who sports a 113.8 passer rating in coverage.
Evans plays most of his snaps on the outside, but the Buccaneers have shown a willingness to move him around the field when they need to. They might need to make that a bigger part of the offense if they want him to get going this week, but don't be surprised if Adam Humphries has a surprisingly productive week either.
Panthers at Raiders
-9.5
Panthers' pass coverage grade
The Panthers still grade out as an above average defensive unit overall, largely thanks to their strength in the front seven. They have stopped the run and rushed the passer well, but have the eighth-worst pass coverage grade in the league.
The run defense will take a hit from the potential absence of Luke Keuchly too, but they'll especially miss him in coverage because he and Thomas Davis are two of the best in the league at handling the middle of the field. Throw in an inexperienced core of corners that sports negative grades nearly across the board, and Derek Carr should once again be able to find Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper for a big day.
1.73
Martellus Bennett's yards per route run in games Rob Gronkowski has missed
Bennett did have the one huge game without Gronk around, when he hauled in five passes for 114 yards and a score in Week 2, but his other games have been duds. He has just 28 yards in the other two games Gronkowski missed, and was targeted just twice in Week 11's win over the 49ers.
Bennett obviously benefits from the attention Gronkowski draws, so he might actually benefit from a speedier return for the big fella.
23.9
Devontae Booker's elusive rating
Fantasy players love the backup running back, but for every Rob Kelley or Jordan Howard, there's a Charcandrick West -- or a Devontae Booker. C.J. Anderson wasn't exactly lighting the world on fire, but after watching Booker rush for just 2.9 yards per carry in his first three starts, it hardly looks like Anderson's struggles were all on him. The surprising thing here is, the Broncos actually grade out as a pretty good run blocking team overall this season, but Booker and Anderson have just 21 missed tackles forced on 214 carries between them. For comparison's sake, Jonathan Stewart has 21 on just 110 tackles on his own.
Booker did show flashes before being thrust into the starring role, so maybe he can get going come off the team's bye week, but things haven't gone well so far.
Packers at Eagles
70.6
Aaron Rodgers' passer rating when pressured
The Packers have done a pretty good job keeping Rodgers' jersey clean as he has been pressured on just 28.1 percent of his dropbacks this season, just the 23rd-highest rate in football. That's a pretty good thing, because Rodgers has the second-lowest completion percentage in football when pressured, at just 39.8 percent, but it might be an issue against this Eagles' defense.
The Eagles have been powered by their pass rush this season, ranking fourth in points allowed per game, despite grading out as average in every aspect of defense except pass rush. Powered by Brandon Graham and Fletcher Cox, the Eagles have the second-best pass rush grade as a team in the league. Rodgers is going to need to rely on his improvisational skills to keep up his recent run of hot Fantasy play up.
