2016 Fantasy Football Draft Prep: Is this the best third-year receiver class ever?
Odell Beckham is already a star, but what about the rest of the wide receiver class of 2014 and their breakout potential? Jamey Eisenberg looks at the outlook for this year's third-year receivers in 2016.
The Class of 2013 wide receivers was one of the worst in recent memory, and we only had a couple of third-year breakouts last season. But the Class of 2014 might be the best of all time, and it will be exciting to see what happens in their third years in 2016.
Led by Odell Beckham, the receivers drafted in 2014 have already been dominant on some level through their first two seasons in the NFL. Combined they have 11 1,000-yard seasons and five have double digits in touchdowns of the 33 who were drafted and two prominent undrafted free agents in Allen Hurns and Willie Snead.
But there is still a chance several of these receivers can improve in their third year. At least that's the hope for Fantasy owners.
The third-year receiver theory is something that some Fantasy owners still buy into but others ignore it. And this class is a big reason why some don't believe it matters anymore after Beckham, Mike Evans and Kelvin Benjamin were standout Fantasy options in their rookie season, and Beckham, Allen Robinson and Brandin Cooks were awesome in their sophomore campaign as well.
But even among last year's terrible group we still had DeAndre Hopkins and Tavon Austin make a significant statistical leap in their third season, and Keenan Allen was headed there as well before a kidney injury in Week 8 forced him on injured reserve.
This season, the players who could follow suit with breakout campaigns are Evans, Benjamin, John Brown and Donte Moncrief (more on them below). It's hard to expect Beckham to get better given what he's already accomplished, and someone like Robinson could see a decline in production even though this is the year when receivers tend to "get it" based on the interviews I've done over the years on this topic.
Some of the best receivers in the NFL, past and present, have had a breakout year in their third season, including T.Y. Hilton, Roddy White, Reggie Wayne, Cris Carter, Terrell Owens and Keyshawn Johnson. Hall of Famers like Carter and Jerry Rice are among those who told me they agree that the third season for a receiver is important because of development.
Now, this doesn't mean a rookie or second-year receiver can't be a star. Baltimore receiver Steve Smith was one dissenter who told me he doesn't believe it takes three years for a receiver to develop. But the consensus is a receiver's third season is when a certain comfort factor develops with understanding routes, reading defenses and getting a rapport with his quarterback, among other things.
We hope that natural maturation happens this season with several of the players listed below. And it would have been great to have Martavis Bryant (suspended) as part of this group, but he's out for the season. Instead, hopefully someone else steps up his place because the more breakout candidates we have the better Fantasy rosters will be.
Editor's note: The players are listed in order of their Average Draft Position on CBS Sports.
- 2014 stats: 132 TAR, 91 REC, 1,305 YDS, 12 TD
- 2015 stats: 159 TAR, 96 REC, 1,405 YDS, 13 TD
- Breakout potential: Slim to none. He's already a stud.
It's pretty impressive that Beckham has played 27 games in his two-year career so far and scored 25 touchdowns. In a standard league, he has scored double digits in Fantasy points 19 times. There's obviously a chance he could improve and go over 100 catches with 1,500 yards and 14 touchdowns, but you know what he is already -- a star. It's hard to call him a breakout candidate, and he should only continue to dominate in his third year. Beckham should be drafted in the first three overall picks in all formats.
- 2014 stats: 81 TAR, 48 REC, 548 YDS, 2 TD
- 2015 stats: 153 TAR, 80 REC, 1,400 YDS, 14 TD
- Breakout potential: Minimal. He might even regress.
Robinson should have the chance to increase his reception total in 2016, but don't be surprised if his yards and touchdowns come down, even slightly. He was great in his sophomore campaign, but the Jaguars passing game isn't expected to be as prolific this year with an improved defense and running game. That said, Robinson should still have the chance for a great season in his third year, and he's worth drafting in the second round in the majority of leagues.
- 2014 stats: 128 TAR, 65 REC, 982 YDS, 6 TD
- 2015 stats: 95 TAR, 60 REC, 1,047 YDS, 9 TD
- Breakout potential: Minimal. Offseason foot surgery could be a problem.
I was hoping what we saw from Watkins in the second half of the season in 2015 (49 catches for 900 yards and seven touchdowns in his final nine outings) would carry over to this season, and he would be a third-year breakout. But after offseason foot surgery, it will be hard to trust him, especially since in the beginning of June he didn't have any idea about a timetable for his return. Now, he could be fine for Week 1 and turn into great value on Draft Day, but he shouldn't be drafted before Round 4 in most leagues.
- 2014 stats: 70 TAR, 53 REC, 550 YDS, 3 TD
- 2015 stats: 129 TAR, 84 REC, 1,138 YDS, 9 TD
- Breakout potential: Likely. Expect a small uptick in production.
Cooks got off to a slow start in 2015, which was likely because Drew Brees was dealing with a shoulder injury, but he closed the season with double digits in Fantasy points in a standard league in six of his final nine games. The Saints added Coby Fleener and Michael Thomas this offseason, but Cooks should continue to lead New Orleans in targets. He has the chance for 100-plus catches this season with more than 1,200 yards and double digits in touchdowns. and he should be drafted in Round 2 or 3.
- 2014 stats: 124 TAR, 68 REC, 1,051 YDS, 12 TD
- 2015 stats: 147 TAR, 74 REC, 1,206 YDS, 3 TD
- Breakout potential: Expected. This will be his best season to date.
Evans had a disappointing season in 2015 with his decline in touchdowns, and he also led the NFL with 11 drops. He spent this offseason working with Jameis Winston to improve their rapport, and it should pay off with another year in Dirk Koetter's system after he was promoted from offensive coordinator to head coach. We expect Evans to set career highs in catches and yards this season, and if he can get back to double digits in touchdowns like his rookie season, he should be a star. He's worth drafting in Round 2.
- 2014 stats: 146 TAR, 73 REC, 1,008 YDS, 9 TD
- 2015 stats: DNP (torn ACL)
- Breakout potential: Likely. He's healthy and ready to go.
We hope Benjamin doesn't regress after missing last season with a torn ACL, but all reports are he's healthy and ready to return as Cam Newton's No. 1 weapon. Ted Ginn just scored 10 touchdowns for the Panthers in 2015 with Benjamin out, and he has the chance for double digits in touchdowns as well. If his catches and yardage rise as expected then he is well worth drafting in Round 3 in the majority of leagues.
- 2014 stats: 111 TAR, 84 REC, 758 YDS, 5 TD
- 2015 stats: 165 TAR, 110 REC, 1,157 YDS, 4 TD
- Breakout potential: Minimal. His second-year stats are what to expect.
Landry played well as a sophomore, but his stats from 2015 might be his ceiling. He would need an increase in touchdowns for a breakout performance to happen, and he only has nine touchdowns in two seasons in the NFL. With DeVante Parker expected to take over as the No. 1 receiver for Miami this year, Landry could take a backseat with his production. He's better in PPR leagues than standard formats, but he's a solid receiver to target in all leagues this year.
- 2014 stats: 103 TAR, 48 REC, 696 YDS, 5 TD
- 2015 stats: 101 TAR, 65 REC, 1,003 YDS, 7 TD
- Breakout potential: Possible. He continues to progress in the right direction.
Brown made steady progress from his rookie season to his sophomore campaign, but he might never become a Fantasy star while Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd are healthy. He should be drafted after Floyd this season and ahead of Fitzgerald. In 2015, he tied Floyd with seven games of double digits in Fantasy points in a standard league (Fitzgerald had six). Brown is an excellent No. 2 Fantasy receiver to target in Round 5 or 6.
- 2014 stats: 105 TAR, 67 REC, 872 YDS, 8 TD
- 2015 stats: 127 TAR, 85 REC, 997 YDS, 8 TD
- Breakout potential: Unlikely. Change in offense could hurt his production.
Matthews had some slight improvements from his rookie year to his second season, but he could see a downturn in production in his third year. He has to prove he can play more on the outside for new coach Doug Pederson, and the reports this offseason have not been encouraging. As a result, he could see a decline in playing time, which would obviously lead to a reduction in his stats. We still think he's worth drafting as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver with a mid-round pick, but a breakout performance does not seem likely.
- 2014 stats: 97 TAR, 51 REC, 677 YDS, 6 TD
- 2015 stats: 104 TAR, 64 REC, 1,031 YDS, 10 TD
- Breakout potential: Doubtful. He should see his stats decline.
Hurns has played well through his first two seasons, especially as an undrafted free agent. He earned a nice four-year contract extension for $40 million in June, but his stats should decline this season from his 2015 production. He scored a touchdown once every 10 targets, and that's not sustainable. I would anticipate Hurns being around 65 catches, 800 yards and six touchdowns this season, and he's only worth drafting with a mid-round pick in most leagues.
- 2014 stats: 49 TAR, 32 REC, 444 YDS, 3 TD
- 2015 stats: 105 TAR, 64 REC, 733 YDS, 6 TD
- Breakout potential: High. He's the definition of a breakout candidate.
You need to look at what Moncrief did last season when Andrew Luck was healthy to see what he's capable of this year. Of the seven games Moncrief played with Luck, he scored five touchdowns and had at least nine Fantasy points in a standard league five times. The Colts also have to replace Andre Johnson and Fleener, who combined for 162 targets, 95 catches, 994 yards and seven touchdowns last season. Hilton, Phillip Dorsett and Dwayne Allen will help pick up the slack, but so will Moncrief. He's a solid mid-round pick in all leagues as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver with Top 20 upside.
- 2014 stats: DNP (not on active roster)
- 2015 stats: 102 TAR, 69 REC, 984 YDS, 3 TD
- Breakout potential: Maybe. Addition of rookie Michael Thomas could hurt.
Snead could end up as the best value of this group based on where he's being drafted in Round 12, which is behind Thomas, and what he should be able to produce. The addition of Fleener could also impact Snead, but we still expect him to start opposite Cooks and again see at least 100 targets. He was upset that he fell short of 1,000 yards, and that's his motivation for this season. He also is trying to prove himself as an undrafted free agent. I love drafting Snead with a late-round flier in all leagues.
Best of the rest (undrafted guys based on ADP): Marqise Lee, Davante Adams, Cody Latimer, Josh Huff, Bruce Ellington, Ryan Grant and Jeff Janis




























