Fantasy Football: Biggest Week 12 takeaways

Doug Baldwin and Markus Wheaton were the surprise contributors Sunday, but Scott White and Chris Towers have more to say about C.J. Anderson and Lamar Miller.

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One of the most frustrating aspects of Fantasy Football is the amount of randomness that goes into it. Do any of the 31 percent of CBSSports.com owners who started Doug Baldwin really deserve an automatic victory because of it? Their rationale for the move was probably something along the lines of "well, he's better than Pierre Garcon."

That's not meant as sour grapes. Anyone who has played Fantasy Football for more than a couple seasons has hit the jackpot with a desperation play at one time or another, so having it work against you now and then is just a part of the game -- an ugly, deplorable part of the game.

The question to ask now -- particularly in a takeaways column such as this one -- is can we take anything away from the performance? You can make a stronger case for Baldwin than any of the other unlikely receiving leaders for the week. He had a 134-yard, touchdown-scoring effort just two weeks ago, after all, and quarterback Russell Wilson has one less alternative with Jimmy Graham sidelined by a knee injury. But Baldwin's fate is so closely tied to Wilson's that first we need to know what to make of Wilson's changing production, and Chris Towers has something to say about that just a littler further down.

So what about the others? It'd be easier to buy into Markus Wheaton's 201 yards as a sign of the Steelers souring on Martavis Bryant if he and Bryant didn't tie for the team lead in targets. More likely, it was just the natural result of Ben Roethlisberger throwing for 456 yards on a day when top receiving threat Antonio Brown was going up against Richard Sherman, neither of which will happen every week. And who really believes Alex Smith is capable of sustaining Jeremy Maclin? I fell for it when Maclin had back-to-back 140-yard games in Weeks 3 and 4, but after four straight with less than 50, Sunday's 160-yard performance doesn't move the needle.

So let's tune out the noise of their Week 12 performances, loud as they were, and share what we learned otherwise.

1. You never sit Tom Brady

Maybe we should have already learned this lesson by now, but Brady's worst game of the season -- the only one where he didn't throw for multiple scores, as a matter of fact -- just so happened to come before his worst matchup of the season Week 12 at Denver, throwing his normally anxiety-free owners into a world of doubt. So naturally, he was one of the six highest scorers at the position, reminding us that even against a historically dominant defense, some players really are matchup-proof. True, five quarterbacks did outscore him, but not the ones you would have considered starting instead. Must-starts are must-starts as much for their reliability as anything. You better know what you're getting from your backup if you're going to bench a week-in, week-out stud like Brady. Just something to keep in mind in Week 14, when the Patriots face a Texans defense that has shut down Drew Brees and Andy Dalton two of the last three weeks. -Scott White

2. Believe in Touchdown Regression

Last week, I said Calvin Johnson, A.J. Green and Demaryius Thomas, despite being disappointments, were actually likely looking at better days ahead of them with just natural regression to the mean. All three were more or less on pace for career-norm production in most relevant categories, except for one -- touchdowns. The argument wasn't that touchdown production is random, because that obviously isn't true. Some players really do have specific skills that make them more or less likely to score at a higher rate than most NFL players. However, when touchdowns come tends to be pretty random, which is why players who are scoring less frequently than their career rates would suggest are typically pretty good targets for positive regression moving forward. Thomas had a miserable performance in Week 12, catching just one of the 13 passes Brock Osweiler threw his way, but Johnson and Green both scored multiple times in their games. Regression typically doesn't work that neatly, and the football season is short enough that sometimes you run out of games before numbers get a chance to normalize, so it isn't a surefire thing. However, Johnson and Green were just the latest examples of why betting on regression is a smart thing to do. -Chris Towers

3. C.J. Anderson may have second life

Maybe it's the fact he played 56 percent of the team's snaps to Ronnie Hillman's 34 percent or the lasting image of him breaking free for a 48-yard touchdown run to put the Patriots away in overtime Sunday night, but Anderson looks like he could become a major part of the Broncos offense again. It's pretty clear the renewed threat of a passing game with Brock Osweiler under center has opened up the running game, and it's becoming increasingly clear that, while Hillman is a perfectly serviceable runner, Anderson has the greater capacity for game-changing plays, as he showed down the stretch last season. He isn't someone you should trust across the board just yet, but he's back ahead of Hillman in the Fantasy pecking order and is probably must-start next week against a Chargers defense that has allowed the most Fantasy points to running backs this season. -Scott White

4. Can Russell Wilson carry you down the stretch?

Speaking of touchdown regression, holy Russell Wilson! He was one of the more disappointing players in all of Fantasy for the first half of the season, having scored just 10 touchdowns, all through the air, in the first nine games. This despite putting together by far his most productive season to date otherwise, averaging 235.3 passing yards and 39.4 rushing yards per game. He still hasn't found the end zone on the ground -- despite having rushed the ball 77 times -- but Wilson's touchdown rate has jumped from 3.7 percent in the first nine games to 5.5 percent overall, after tossing eight scores in his last two games. Given the state of his receiving corps and offensive line, it made sense to be down on Wilson, but it wasn't far fetched to expect improved play even given thsoe issues. And more good things might just be in the future for him, as he averaged one rushing touchdown every 170 rushing yards and 28 attempts in his first three seasons, making him more than overdue for a score on the ground. There is plenty of reason to believe Wilson can be a QB1 through the end of the season, though Jimmy Graham's injury in Week 12 might be a big hurdle to overcome. -Chris Towers

5. Philip Rivers is still an asset in Fantasy

What was that I said about Rivers just last week? Oh yeah: He doesn't have the weapons to make a significant Fantasy impact anymore. Four touchdown passes later, I'm wondering how I could have been so dismissive of Antonio Gates and Steve Johnson. Of course, it's easy to reshape the narrative to fit the results, and maybe Rivers' success Sunday was more a reflection on the Jaguars defense, which has been putrid against the pass all season. Truth is you won't have much incentive to start Rivers over the final five weeks because two of those games are against the Broncos' top-ranked pass defense and another is against the same Chiefs team that shut him down last week, but you'd hate for someone else to hit the jackpot with him during the Fantasy playoffs. His two favorable matchups, the Dolphins and Raiders, are at the height of them in Weeks 15 and 16. -Scott White

6. Andy Reid is going to keep feeding whoever his RB is

After years of watching him freeze Jamaal Charles out for key stretches, it has been pretty frustrating watching Reid ride Charles' unheralded backups into the ground. Charcandrick West had 77 carries and 18 targets in three and a half games before getting hurt last week, and Spencer Ware has 30 carries and four targets in one and a half games as the featured back. In other words, over a five-game stretch, Ware and West have had 129 plays designed for them, compared to just 100 for Charles in five games before his season-ending injury. It helps that the Chiefs have won all five games, and it is hard to say whether the running back usage has led to the winning or vice versa, but it is clear that Reid plans to keep using his running backs heavily, regardless of who it is. At least until Charles is healthy enough to get frozen out next season. -Chris Towers

7. The Lamar Miller ride is over

When Dan Campbell took over as interim coach for the Dolphins prior to Week 6, he stressed the need for balance on offense, which led to Miller rushing for 100 yards in back-to-back games. Problem solved, right? Unfortunately, Miller has averaged just 29.6 rushing yards in five games since, getting a total of 12 carries in the last two combined. Granted, offensive coordinator Bill Lazor was since fired in part for his failure to achieve balance on offense, but it doesn't change the fact that the Dolphins are bad defensively and will have to chase points as a result. Plus, they've taken a liking to Jay Ajayi since the rookie returned from a rib injury in Week 9, giving him 57 percent of the snaps compared to Miller's 32 percent in Week 12. Single-digit carries may well be the norm for Miller even with he change in coordinator, so you shouldn't put too much faith in him going forward. -Scott White

8. Sammy Watkins might be in for a huge second half

Watkins gets the benefit of the doubt based on his draft stock and pedigree, but the early returns in his career have left plenty to be desired. Injuries have given him valid excuses this season, but even as a rookie, he caught barely 50 percent of the passes thrown his way and missed a lot more than he hit for Fantasy owners. We aren't a particularly patient bunch as a collective, so it's not terribly surprising that many in the Fantasy community have written him off. Of course, the talent and skill set that made him the No. 4 overall pick just last season haven't gone away, and he proved that in resounding fashion in Week 12, as he hauled in six of 10 passes for 158 yards and a pair of scores. Consistency remains an issue for Watkins, but he does have two 100-yard games in his last four since returning from injury in Week 9, and is showing off that tremendous upside. On the whole, he has been a much more productive receiver than his rookie season, and if you take out his invisible Week 1, he is on a 71-catch, 1,200-yard pace, and could be in line for a huge run down the stretch, with games against the Eagles, Redskins and Cowboys from Weeks 14-16 looking especially appetizing. -Chris Towers

9. The Colts still have a passing game

You'd think the Colts would be lost without star quarterback Andrew Luck, who just missed his second straight game with a potentially season-ending kidney injury, but 40-year-old backup Matt Hassebeck has gone 4-0 as a fill-in starter this year and had the numbers to match Week 12 against Tampa Bay. He made T.Y. Hilton look like a star again, connecting with him on two touchdown throws, and also got Donte Moncrief back on track with 114 yards through the air. He has thrown multiple touchdown passes in three of those four starts, averaging 255.8 yards, and while he has varied his targets for the most part, he reminded us what two of his best can do just in time for the Colts to visit the Steelers, who this week allowed 345 yards and five touchdowns through the air to the previously underwhelming Russell Wilson. You wouldn't dare sit Hilton after what Doug Baldwin just did, and Moncrief deserves a long look as well. -Scott White

10. Texans' defense might be real

The Texans were one of the most popular DST units for Fantasy entering the season, with the third-highest ADP at the position. Unfortunately, they were a great example of why investing heavily into a defense just isn't worth it, because they allowed 20-plus points in six of their first seven games, with just one double-digit Fantasy game in that span. After shutting down the Saints in Week 12, however, the Texans have now scored in double figures in each of their last four games, while holding the Titans, Bengals, Jets and Saints to just 35 points total. The pass rush is starting to get going and, after struggling early in the season, they have completely shut down opposing running games during their four-game winning streak, allowing just 70 yards per game. With the exception of Week 14 against the Patriots, the Texans' schedule down the stretch is uniformly excellent, and they might be the top DST unit in the game from this point on. More importantly, they might be the type of unit you avoid with marginal options. Take note Watkins and Tyrod Taylor owners in Week 13 and Frank Gore and Donte Moncrief owners in Week 15. -Chris Towers