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I do not enjoy uncertainty in Fantasy football, and we have a whole lot of it in Carolina. Cam Newton's shoulder is still healing; Greg Olsen hasn't ruled out a holdout; and the Panthers draft indicated a change in offensive philosophy. 

I'm assuming Newton's shoulder will be fine and any holdout from Olsen will just be a break from the first few weeks of camp (that a veteran doesn't need anyway). I'm far more interested in the acquisitions of Christian McCaffrey and Curtis Samuel, and what it means for the Panthers in terms of gameplan. 

McCaffrey and Samuel both possess an ability after the catch that has been missing from the Carolina attack. That could be great for Newton, except in the past, he's rarely thrown short passes to players out of the backfield, and he typically hasn't been very accurate on them. Is that because of his past personnel, or is it a skill deficiency? 

Answering that question is the first step towards projecting this offense correctly, and I think it's more the former than the latter. However, I also believe McCaffrey and Samuel could get overdrafted while people forget about Jonathan Stewart.

*Rankings expressed below are in terms of expected Fantasy points. This is a part of our actual Fantasy Football rankings but not a direct correlation to my rankings. Things like injury risk, upside, etc. factor into rankings but they're not being talked about here. This is simply an expectation as the team is currently constructed.

Carolina Panthers
Player Name Expected FP Position Rank Expected PPR FP Position Rank
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Greg Olsen CAR TE
131 #3 207 #3
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Christian McCaffrey CAR RB
128.7 #27 176.7 #20
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Cam Newton CAR QB
352.4 #6 352.4 #6
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Kelvin Benjamin CAR WR
128.8 #32 190.8 #36
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Jonathan Stewart CAR RB
124.2 #31 138.2 #39


Breaking down the touches

The main change we're expecting out of the Panthers offense is more targets for running backs. The position has seen right around 12 percent of the team's targets over each of the past three seasons. Figuring out where those targets come from isn't all that hard, assuming Olsen stays healthy. Carolina has given their tight ends a minimum of 25 percent of the team's targets since 2014. Considering Olsen is arguably their best offensive weapon I wouldn't expect that to change. In other words, we're either taking targets away from the wide receivers, or adding more passes.

It's quite possible that you could replace some Newton's run plays with dump offs to backs. Newton averaged 120 rush attempts per year from 2011-15, but saw that number fall to 90 (in 15 games) last season. I'm expecting he's between 90-100 this year which should either mean more carries or more receptions for Stewart and McCaffrey. 

Panthers touches
Player RuSHARE RuATT ReSHARE TGT REC TD
Jonathan Stewart 44% 196 4% 24 14 7
Christian McCaffrey 28% 128 12% 64 48 6
Kelvin Benjamin 0% 0 20% 112 62 7
Devin Funchess 0% 0 12% 80 40 5
Curtis Samuel 4% 20 12% 80 56 4
Greg Olsen 0% 0 22% 120 76 6

Of note: 

  • This is still more of a shift in offensive philosophy than an overhaul. An overhaul could mean a lot more McCaffrey and Samuel in the passing game, and would likely come at the expense of Funchess.
  • Stewart is not going anywhere. If anything, he could see an expanded role in the red zone if Carolina tries to limit Newton's rush attempts.
  • Stewart is also injury prone, of course. I have little doubt McCaffrey can fill his role (and be a borderline No. 1 running back) if Stewart succumbs to injury once again.

The Leftovers

We've covered most of the possibilities for the Panthers, but in a deep dynasty league Keyarris Garrett is someone to keep an eye on. Garrett spent 2016 on the practice squad but there have been murmurs  he's having a good summer. If Funchess continues to struggle Garrett is another big receiver that could get an opportunity. Garrett caught 96 passes for 1,588 yards and 8 touchdowns in his final year at Tulsa.