Three reasons the Astros are off to a terrible start in 2016

Things were not supposed to start out this way for the Astros. After losing 324 games from 2011-13, the 'Stros made some progress and won 70 games in 2014, then broke through with 86 wins and a Wild Card spot in 2015. The 2016 season was supposed to be their big coming out party.

Instead, the Astros lost for the sixth time in seven games Monday night (SEA 3, HOU 2), dropping them to 6-14 on the season. They're tied with the Twins for the worst record in the AL, and they have the league's worst run differential (-21). Only the rebuilding Braves have a lower winning percentage than Houston.

Every team slumps at some point during the season, but when the slump happens at the start of the new year, everything gets magnified. The fact that the Astros went 13-17 in the final month of last season and lost their season-long grip on the AL West lead in mid September isn't helping matters either.

It takes a total team effort to win only six of your first 20 games. There's not one player or one aspect of the team dragging the Astros down. It's a combination of several things, specifically these three.

1. The big additions are not paying off.

All things considered, the Astros had a relatively low-key offseason. GM Jeff Luhnow did not spend big in free agency or make multiple splashy trades to improve a young roster that is clearly on the rise. He opted to shore up his weaknesses and keep the moves to a minimum.

The Astros made only two notable pickups over the winter: Doug Fister and Ken Giles. They signed Fister to a one-year deal worth $7 million, and traded a five-player package to the Phillies for Giles. That package include right-hander Vince Velasquez and fellow righty Mark Appel, the No. 1 pick in the 2013 draft.

So far this season, neither Fister nor Giles have provided the impact the Astros expected. Fister is 1-3 with a 5.56 ERA (67 ERA+) in four starts and 22 2/3 innings. He took the loss Monday night after issuing seven walks (!) and allowing two homers in six innings. Fister's lucky he didn't allow more than three runs.

Houston hoped Fister would rebound to his pre-2015 form following last year's forearm injury, but it hasn't happened. His velocity has not bounced back at all (via Brooks Baseball):

Fister, who is still only 32, was never a hard thrower, but there's a big difference between sitting 88-90 mph like he did a few years ago, and sitting 85-87 mph like he is right now. Unless the missing velocity returns, it's tough to expect Fister's performance to improve substantially.

Giles, on the other hand, has allowed eight runs on 13 hits and three walks in only 8 2/3 innings. He's had one 1-2-3 inning in nine appearances. Giles has allowed three homers and two wild pitches with the Astros already. He allowed three homers and two wild pitches total in his 115 2/3 innings with the Phillies from 2014-15.

The silver lining is Giles is still throwing hard and missing bats. He has 12 strikeouts in those 8 2/3 innings, and his 12.5 K/9 is right in line with the previous years. Fister's stuff is clearly not what it once was, which is why it tough to expect him to fare much better going forward. Giles hasn't loss any stuff. He's dealing with location problems more than anything.

Neither Fister nor Giles have helped much, and really, you can go back to last year's trade deadline and include Carlos Gomez in this group. He was brought in to be a difference maker, and instead he's hit .232/.270/.345 (71 OPS+) in 60 games as an Astro. That includes a ghastly .211/.233/.268 (43 OPS+) line so far in 2016.

Luhnow did not make a ton of moves to improve his roster over the winter, and the few moves he did make are not working out. Gomez hasn't hit since last year's trade and neither Fister nor Giles have pitched well in the early going. They're part of the problem right now.

2. The starting pitching has been very shaky.

A year ago Houston's rotation ranked second in the AL in both ERA (3.71) and WAR (16.0). They were led by Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel, and they also got very strong work from Collin McHugh and midseason additions Lance McCullers Jr. and Mike Fiers. Run prevention was the name of the game. No AL team allowed fewer runs than the Astros in 2015.

So far in 2016 the Astros rank dead last in the AL in rotation ERA (5.27), and their five starters have combined for -1.0 WAR in 20 games. Yikes. Fister has not solidified the back of the rotation, McCullers is on the DL with a shoulder problem, and even Keuchel has not lived up to the lofty standards he's set the last two years. Look:

	IP	ERA	ERA+	WHIP	FIP	WAR
2016 Astros: Rotation
Dallas Keuchel	26 2/3	3.71	100	1.43	3.15	0.2
Doug Fister	22 2/3	5.56	67	1.50	6.43	-0.3
Mike Fiers	22	5.73	65	1.36	5.49	-0.4
Scott Feldman	19 2/3	4.58	82	1.88	5.42	-0.5
Collin McHugh	16 2/3	7.56	50	2.10	2.90	0.0

When the second best ERA in your rotation is closer to 5.00 than 4.00, that's a problem. It's really tough to string together some wins when your rotation is performing like that.

The good news is the Astros have McCullers coming back reasonably soon -- he threw in the bullpen Sunday and is expected to begin pitching in minor league games shortly -- so he should inject some life into the starting staff.

I expect Keuchel to be great and both McHugh and Fiers to be solid when it's all said and done. I can't admit to being optimistic about Fister and Feldman, however. Not at this point of their careers, when they're working with reduced stuff. Either way, the rotation has struggled big time early on. They're a huge reason why the club is 6-14 in 2016.

3. The bottom of the lineup isn't providing much offense.

One of my favorite early season sidebars is Jose Altuve turning into a legitimate power threat. He has nine doubles and five home runs in 20 games already. Altuve did break out with 15 homers last season, but prior to that he had never hit more than seven dingers in a big league season. It's pretty awesome.

Manager A.J. Hinch slots George Springer, Carlos Correa, and Colby Rasmus behind Altuve in the team's regular batting order, which makes sense because they are the team's four best hitters. Rasmus has hit seven home runs already, and we all know the kind of impact Springer and Correa can have. They can beat you in so many different ways.

And yet, despite those four players, the Astros are averaging only 3.90 runs per game, which ranks 18th among the 30 teams. The bottom of the lineup isn't providing enough support. Here are the numbers for the rest of the team's regular position players:

	2016 Season	Last Two Weeks
2016 Astros: Bottom of the Lineup
C Jason Castro	.116/.224/.209, 0 HR	.130/.286/.217, 0 HR
1B Tyler White	.262/.333/.554, 5 HR	.116/.204/.279, 2 HR
3B Luis Valbuena	.224/.345/.306, 0 HR	.192/.382/.269, 0 HR
CF Carlos Gomez	.211/.233./268, 0 HR	.217/.250/.261, 0 HR
DH Evan Gattis	.222/.243/.306, 0 HR	.222/.243/.306, 0 HR
Backup IF Marwin Gonzalez	.243/.263/.405, 1 HR	.296/.296/.519, 1 HR
Backup OF Preston Tucker	.237/.275/.500, 2 HR	.174/.174/.217, 0 HR

Not a lot of productive players in that group, especially over the last two weeks. White got off to that incredible start, then cooled down considerably. Gattis returned from his hernia surgery and has yet to get going. Valbuena hit 25 home runs a year ago and has yet to leave the yard in 2016.

To make matters worse, the Astros lead the AL in strikeout rate (27.0 percent). Strikeouts aren't the end of the world -- they led the league with a 22.9 percent strikeout in 2015 and still went to the ALDS -- but when the bottom of your lineup is scuffling, it's tough to get things going without putting the ball in play.

The Astros have scored only 42 runs in 13 games over the last two weeks -- they've won three of those 13 games -- and eight of those runs came in one game. They scored two runs or fewer seven times in those 13 games. The strikeouts aren't the root cause of the Astros' recent offensive problems, but they do exacerbate things.

Houston is struggling big time right now, and the good news is no one is running away with the AL West. The Mariners sit in first place 10-9, so even though the Astros are 6-14, they're only 4 1/2 games back with more than five months to play. It's too early to be buried in the standings.

The Astros do have to straighten things out and soon, however. They need more from Giles and Gomez, need the rotation to get on track, and they need someone other than Altuve/Springer/Correa/Rasmus to start creating runs. The Astros aren't a bad team. They have talent. But right now they're falling well short of expectations on both sides of the ball.