default-cbs-image

From 2011 through 2013, Vincent Jackson was one of the better wide receivers in Fantasy, and also one of the least appreciated. He finished as a top-15 receiver each season, and the following are the only WR to top him each season:

Calvin Johnson

No, really. Only five other players even topped him in two out of the three seasons, as he finished 14th in 2013, sixth in 2012 and ninth in 2011. He is riding a string of five 1,000-yard seasons in six years, with a holdout-marred 2010 season standing as the lone exception. And he still snagged three touchdowns in five games in 2010, and averaged 8.2 touchdowns per-16 games from 2008 through 2013.

With that kind of track record, Jackson should have earned the benefit of the doubt from Fantasy owners coming off a down season. However, a complete list of wide receivers taken ahead of him on average in CBSSports.com leagues this season would be too unwieldy to post, what with 29 names featured.

Let's compare some of those 29 players to Jackson, who is coming off a down season in which he still caught 70 passes for 1,002 yards.

Sammy Watkins (No. 28 WR ADP): 65 receptions, 982 yards, six touchdowns in 2014
Mike Wallace (No. 27 WR ADP): 67 receptions, 862 yards, 10 touchdowns in 2014
Brandon Marshall (No. 26 WR ADP): 61 receptions, 721 yards, eight touchdowns in 2014
Jarvis Landry (No. 24 WR ADP): 84 receptions, 758 yards, five touchdowns in 2014
Keenan Allen (No. 23 WR ADP): 77 receptions, 783 yards, four touchdowns

And that doesn't even include Amari Cooper, a rookie catching passes from the unproven Derek Carr, or Jeremy Maclin, an injury-pone receiver whose quarterback is now the value-killing Alex Smith. Many of those players are younger than Jackson, but all are either coming off similarly shaky seasons or have simiarly shaky quarterback situations. 

The knocks on Jackson are obvious; he's 32, has a potentially shaky young quarterback of his own under center and saw his production decline immediately upon Mike Evans' drafting. Those are some pretty obvious red flags, but I'm not sure they're enough to justify dropping Jackson as far down draft boards as he has been falling.

For one thing, it's not like his production fell off that much. He caught 49.3 percent of the 140 passes thrown his way; he caught 48.8 percent of the 160 passes thrown his way in 2013. Because he does so much of his work downfield, Jackson has always been a relatively low catch-rate player. He caught just nine of 34 passes thrown 20 yards downfield or further in 2014, an appallingly low rate, however only nine of those passes were graded as catchable by ProFootballFocus.com.

This is where Jameis Winston might actually be able to help. Sure, Winston had issues with accuracy in both the preseason and college, but it's hard to imagine him actually being worse than the Josh McCown/Mike Glennon combination the Buccaneers threw out there last season. In 2013, 12 of the 29 deep passes thrown to Jackson were catchable, a much higher rate than last season's 26.5 percent rate.  

Those three receptions might not sound like much, but Jackson has averaged 37.3 yards per reception on passes 20-plus yards downfield, so he might have lost 100 yards due to his quarterbacks' inability to deliver him the ball downfield.

The other argument against Jackson is harder to ignore, but it's getting a little easier with each passing day. Evans emerged as one of the best downfield receivers in football, hauling in 18 passes thrown 20 yards are more and racking up 575 yards on those passes. Evans apparently wasn't hurt by the Bucs' QB struggles, and his emergence is obviously going to lead Jackson to taking a big step backwards.

On the other hand, the duo put up essentially identical numbers last season, with Evans going for 49 more yards but catching two fewer passes. The one difference -- and it was a massive one, to be fair -- were Evans' 12 touchdowns to Jackson's two. That disparity was enough to push Evans into the top-10 among receivers, while dropping Jackson to 39th. That's a massive difference, but it also might not be indicative of what is going to happen moving forward.

For one thing, touchdown production tends to fluctuate, often wildly, from year to year. Jackson has been a consistent 7-9 touchdown guy when healthy, and it's hard to believe he all of a sudden lost the ability to find the end zone. Evans is already an exceptional red zone target, but last year's disparity probably overstates the difference between the two.

Plus, Evans hasn't practiced since exiting the team's second preseason game with a hamstring injury, leaving his status for Week 1 at least a little cloudy. Even if he does take the field to open the season, this kind of soft tissue injury could linger, slowing him down during regular season play and allowing Jackson to take on a bigger role at least early in the season.

Jackson may end up being overshadowed by Evans in the long run, but Evans' early-season injury could open the door for Jackson to make a big impact. For Fantasy owners who have snagged Jackson in the middle rounds -- or those about the draft -- that could turn him into an excellent value.