2016 NFL season over/under win total picks for AFC: Patriots look like a steal

Back in May, following the 2016 NFL Draft, we took a look at some of the over-under lines around the NFL, trying to figure out what teams would fall short of their projected Las Vegas win total and what teams would improve on the number given to them by our friends in the desert.

For whatever reason, when we've done this in the past few years, we haven't revisited it as the season gets closer. With preseason action set to start on Thursday night (there are six games slated, check the schedule here), it makes sense to take another look and imagine how these teams will shake out.

The numbers for each team haven't changed dramatically, but the price (in parentheses) probably has -- if a team has a (-130) you need to bet $130 to win $100. Conversely, if a team has a (+110), if you bet $100 you would win $110. The price is almost as important as the number when it comes to the NFL, where a few games swing based on the random luck of fumbles.

On Wednesday we roll out the AFC, with the NFC coming Thursday. There are two "Best Bets" noted for each conference as well.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens

8.5 Over (+110) / Under (-130)
May Win Total: 8.5

The number of wins hasn't changed but the price has shifted dramatically, indicating an expectation of the Ravens bouncing back starting to cool. It's not unreasonable given the offense's lack of explosion. Steve Smith is legendary but he's older. Will Breshad Perriman actually contribute? Joe Flacco is coming off a torn ACL. Terrance West might be the training camp savior. It's hard to imagine the Ravens not being good -- they're usually just good under John Harbaugh -- but they feel a little more snakebit than they did a few months ago.

Previously: OVER
VERDICT: UNDER

Cincinnati Bengals

9.5 Over (-110) / Under (-110)
May Win Total: 9.5

There still isn't a ton of value here because the number is high, but the Bengals quietly have double-digit wins the last four years, plus nine wins the year before that and another pair of double-digit win seasons under Marvin Lewis. He's just a good coach who has been pretty terrible (and unlucky) in the playoffs. The roster lost skill-position guys in Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones, but Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard can carry the load in a run-heavy offense. Andy Dalton continues to get no respect. It's gotten cheap to buy on the Bengals, but given everything that's happened in the AFC North, they suddenly look like a strong buy. So, yeah, changing the pick here and essentially flipping with the Ravens.

Previously: Under
VERDICT: OVER

Cleveland Browns

4.5 Over (-155) / Under (+135)
May Win Total: 4.5

The price for taking over 4.5 games has gotten more expensive and that's because it's pretty hard to win less than five games in the NFL. But the Browns have done it five times in the past decade. This team feels different, and Hue Jackson is legitimately inspiring some confidence. Robert Griffin III is making people believe all over again, Corey Coleman might be the truth and Josh Gordon is reinstated. But it's all hype and August excitement that is getting people amped up. Still, selling this number but it'll be close and they will be much better than people expect.

Previously: Under
VERDICT: UNDER

Pittsburgh Steelers

10.5 Over (+120) / Under (-140)
May Win Total: 10.5

Same win total but completely different price (over was -130 in May) and that's largely because of the Le'Veon Bell suspension, which could keep him out for the first four games of the season. Martavis Bryant being out for the season doesn't help either. But the Steelers should still be a very good football team. Ben Roethlisberger is a top-five quarterback in the NFL and Antonio Brown is unquestionably the best wideout in football. Sammie Coates is lighting it up in camp and could combine with Markus Wheaton and Lardarius Green to give Pittsburgh another high-powered offense. If you want to take the over, take it now in case Bell's suspension is overturned.

Previously: Over
VERDICT: OVER

AFC East

Buffalo Bills

8.0 Over (-120) / Under (EVEN)
May Win Total: 8.0

When I took the under in May, Bills fans came after me. That's sweet of them, but maybe make the playoffs before you start acting like you should easily break .500 in 2016. Buffalo's defense should be better with Rex Ryan's guys in place and I love the idea of Rex and Rob coaching this inspired team up for their late father. Just full Kenny Powers in effect and Bills fans soaking it up. Sammy Watkins is cleared for the start the preseason and that's huge, but if he goes down, look out. They're not going to get production from Shaq Lawson or Reggie Ragland off the bat, which could lead to lost rookie seasons. Everyone is acting like the quarterback situation isn't a problem but it could very quickly become a major issue.

Previously: Under
VERDICT: UNDER

Miami Dolphins

7.0 Over (-120) / Under (EVEN)
May Win Total: 7.0

No major movement here and no change for me on the pick. I'm buying what Adam Gase is selling in terms of improving this team the right way and if anyone can get a big season out of Ryan Tannehill it's a guy who got something out of Tim Tebow. There are weapons there, led by Jarvis Landry and Davante Parker. Jay Ajayi and Arian Foster could surprise. The defense will be better with Ndamukong Suh motivated to prove people wrong and in a scheme he likes.

Previously: Over
VERDICT: OVER

New England Patriots

10.5 Over (-120) / Under (EVEN)
May Win Total: 10.5

Pretty nuts to have the Deflategate stuff come to a close, after flipping a hundred times and this win total just settling right in and never really moving. It's a testament to the consistency of Bill Belichick and the probability of the Patriots winning two of their first four games. They'll probably lose to Arizona but could win three games at home. Rob Gronkowski and Martellus Bennett are going to go nuclear on red zones. Julian Edelman's injury in training camp this week is concerning but not believed to be serious. They should be patient with him. If Jimmy Garropolo surprises this could look like a steal.

Previously: Over
VERDICT: OVER
*BEST BET

New York Jets

8.0 Over (+130) / Under (-150)
May Win Total: 8.0

Taking the under has gotten a LOT more expensive since the draft, which is crazy because the Jets signed Ryan Fitzpatrick since then. Locking up Muhammad Wilkerson should do a lot to appease Jets fans worried about the defensive line, even if Damon Harrison is gone and Sheldon Richardson is suspended. The schedule for New York is a LOT tougher than it was last year though and anyone expecting Fitz to cure all ills is asking too much.

Previously: Under
VERDICT: UNDER

AFC West

Denver Broncos

9.5 Over (+130) / Under (-150)
May Win Total: 9.0

Are people loading on the Broncos? Because the number moved up a full half win in a few months. It's not unreasonable to expect a good season out of Denver. The running game will have C.J. Anderson back and there are passing weapons in Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. The defense is filthy, with Von Miller locked up and the best secondary in football. But Aqib Talib might be suspended and in case you didn't hear, the quarterback situation is a red flag. There were enough losses in the aftermath of the Super Bowl for me to project a fallback season for Denver.

Previously: Over
VERDICT: UNDER

Kansas City Chiefs

9.5 Over (-135) / Under (+115)
May Win Total: 9.5

Guess people are loading on the Chiefs too. Don't love it, not with the losses in the secondary (Eric Berry holding out, Sean Smith gone in free agency) and Justin Houston battling an injury that should sideline him into the season. No pass rush and less coverage makes defense harder. Andy Reid will always fashion a quality offense but good luck finding a string of cupcakes like Kansas City did down the stretch of last year to rip off 10 straight wins.

Previously: Under
VERDICT: UNDER

Oakland Raiders

8.5 Over (-110) / Under (-110)
May Win Total: 8.0

People definitely are uncorking on Oakland, the hottest team this offseason. The bandwagon is full, folks. Hard to blame people for being on board, either, with Amari Cooper likely to progress in his second season and Derek Carr emerging as a franchise quarterback, albeit one with questions surrounding him because of late-season struggles. Khalil Mack is the truth. He's got defensive help now and Reggie McKenzie did a great job of shoring up the secondary and turning it from a weak spot into a potential strength. If this bumps up to nine wins it's going to be hard to not take the under given this team's historical record, though.

Previously: Over
VERDICT: OVER

San Diego Chargers

7.0 Over (-150) / Under (+130)
May Win Total 7.0

The Joey Bosa situation has become a real thorn for this defensive projection. Philip Rivers loved the pick, right up until he extended his holdout into training camp. He can stuff the run and rush the passer out of the nickel but if he's missing it's a major issue given his high floor. Melvin Gordon could bounce back ... RIGHT? (Or just bounce?) Philip Rivers makes this team a contender and if you believe in regression to the mean, their struggles with injuries and close losses make them an interesting team to watch in 2016.

Previously: Over
VERDICT: OVER
*BEST BET

AFC South

Houston Texans

8.5 Over (EVEN) / UNDER (-120)
May Win Total: 8.5

The price move indicates people betting against the Texans finding success with a totally revamped offense. Personally I love their offseason moves -- Brock Osweiler is an upgrade because anyone is an upgrade over Brandon Weeden/Brian Hoyer/Tom Savage/Ryan Mallett. Lamar Miller was a delightful signing. Will Fuller/Braxton Miller paired with a contractually-motivated DeAndre Hopkins gives this unit some explosiveness. The big red flag is J.J. Watt. He'll get on the field but any injury to him is scary.

Previously: Over
VERDICT: OVER

Indianapolis Colts

9.0 Over (-130) / Under (+110)
May Win Total 9.5

This number's dropped a full half win and, you know what, it might just be because betting on 10 games out of a team with a questionable offensive line and questionable defense is dangerous. On the other hand, Ryan Kelly makes the protection in front of Andrew Luck much better, Luck should be healthier and his weapons could all break out with big seasons potentially coming from T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief and Philip Dorsett. I picked them as a team that makes the playoffs in the AFC, but it could very well be with just nine wins. This division is going to be hairy the whole way through and everyone Indy has to face is improved over last year. If this is a push at season's end I'm claiming it as a win.

Previously: Under
VERDICT: UNDER

Jacksonville Jaguars

7.5 Over (-110) / Under (-110)
May Win Total: 7.5

Another white-hot team hasn't really cooled down from their bustling offseason. Blake Bortles has huge expectations this year but might not have a ton of protection in front of him (and might get stifled if the defense is better, although Jacksonville would certainly live with that). Love Jalen Ramsey and Myles Jack in the draft, but are they definitely healthy heading into 2016? Dante Fowler is wowing people in training camp but it's also just camp. Jags fans deserve a step forward but starting to think everyone might be a year too early on this team.

Previously: Over
VERDICT: UNDER

Tennessee Titans

5.5 Over (-165) / Under (+145)
May Win Total: 5.5

That is quite the price to take an over of six games. Three of their first five are on the road and they have a really late bye (Week 13) but this is secretly a manageable schedule if Marcus Mariota takes an expected leap forward and the DeMarco Murray/Derrick Henry running back combo can get loose in this exotic smash mouth. If you're taking the under it's a wager that Mike Mularkey isn't destined to lead this Titans team to glory. They have five total wins the last two seasons by the way.

Previously: Under
VERDICT: UNDER