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"If the playoffs started today" isn't the most illuminating way to begin a conversation about the current state of your favorite teams, especially when there are six weeks left in the season. But it can be instructive if those teams are not only on the wrong side of .500, but find themselves behind at least 10 other teams in the conference.

And that's where the Saints (4-5) and Panthers (3-6) sit in the middle of November.

On Thursday, they'll meet for the final time in 2016, five weeks after New Orleans outlasted Carolina, 41-38, thanks to a 465-yard passing day from Drew Brees and a 52-yard game-winning field goal from Wil Lutz with just seconds on the clock.

And while it's too early to write off the season for either team, probability says this matchup is more about pride -- if you buy into the whole "grown men need motivation" angle -- and, more concretely, draft order in the spring.

But stranger things have happened. A year ago, the Chiefs started 1-5, had virtually no chance of qualifying for the postseason, and then proceeded to rip off 10 straight regular-season wins, then demoralized the Texans, 30-0, in the wild-card game. And as recently as 2012, the Redskins limped to a 3-6 start only to have at-the-time franchise savior Robert Griffin III (Remember that!? Feels like a lifetime ago -- and probably longer for him) lead the team to seven straight victories and a division title. Before that, you have to go back two decades. The Jaguars were sitting at 3-6 in 1996, somehow finished 9-7, and not only that, won twice in the playoffs.

Based on history, 3-6 outfits have a 3 percent chance making the postseason, according to Pro-Football-Reference.com. And in terms of the 2016 season, the Panthers are looking at slightly better odds; FiveThirtyEight.com pegs their postseason chances at 9 percent, based on the rest of the league, and there's even a 5 percent chance they can still win the NFC South.

A lot has to happen for Cam and the Panthers USATSI

Frankly, that sounds high, but if you're a glass-half-full type, it's also good news for the 4-5 Saints. In fact, they're looking at a 17 percent chance at January football and a 14 percent chance to do it at division champs.

Again, that sounds high, but the reality is this, at least for Thursday night: The probabilities don't matter. That's right, we're replacing science with cliche; the longest journey starts with the first step. And for the Panthers and Saints, that means every game is of the must-win variety. So while neither will be mathematically eliminated on Friday morning, for all intents and purposes, that'll be a wrap on '16 for the loser.

"What we have done is put our backs completely against the wall," coach Ron Rivera admitted this week. "There is no room for error now."

10 minutes you won't get back

It's another podcast, and on the latest episode we basically come to this conclusion: Loser's goin' home.

First things first: Carolina has to duct tape that O-line

For the Panthers, that means finding a way to keep Cam Newton upright, which has been a daunting task to date; the offensive line ranks 26th in pass protection, according to Football Outsiders' metrics. And these stats, courtesy of Pro Football Focus, are even more sobering: Newton's completion percentage drops from 64.6 to 43.5 when he's under pressure. His yards per attempt go from 7.7. to 6.1, his TD/INT ratio drops from 2/1 to 1/1.5, and his passer rating plummets from 93.1 to 57.1.

Of course, there is no middle-of-the-season fix for an offensive line that isn't very good. The trade deadline has passed, and even if the Panthers somehow ended up with Joe Thomas, one man isn't fixing a unit in which only two of six players with at least 230 snaps have a positive grade, according to PFF.

We can't believe we're about to write this, but perhaps organizations with franchise quarterbacks that are struggling needn't look any farther than the Cowboys. Jerry Jones' team has stockpiled talent at offensive line, and that -- along with a workhorse running back in Ezekiel Elliott -- has made life immeasurably easier for rookie Dak Prescott. And the takeaway here shouldn't be stud O-line plus once-in-a-generation running back equates to success; we think the offensive line is even more important than the running back. Put another way: Imagine Newton behind Dallas' front five. His success in the passing game would translate to success for runners Jonathan Stewart and Fozzy Whittaker.

Since midseason trips to Fantasy Island aren't an option, the Panthers are stuck with what they got, and the simple truth is they have to play better. That holds for Newton too, who bears some responsibility for a top-10 offense in 2015 dropping to the middle of the pack this season. PFF pins blame on Newton for four sacks in 2016, which doesn't sound like a lot. But it's the timing of the sacks that have been problematic. In Sunday's improbable loss to the Chiefs, the Panthers, leading 17-3 in the second half, had a first down at Kansas City's 20-yard line. Newton then lost a yard on a designed run, and followed that up with a 7-yard sack and then another, good for a 12-yard loss. Carolina had to punt, and eventually found a way to lose.

"You can't take back-to-back sacks," Rivera said after the game, via ESPN.com. "You just can't. That's the bottom line, and that's disappointing."

Newton didn't disagree.

"I just have to find ways to get the ball out of my hands, and that's what has to happen," he said.

The Saints are improving, but will it be enough?

Good news: The Saints are 4-2 in their last six games. Bad news: Doing the math, that means they started the season with three straight losses. More good news: Those losses were, it turns out, to three pretty good teams -- the Raiders, Giants and Falcons. And their two other losses came to two other pretty good teams -- the Chiefs and, most recently, the Broncos.

So there are reasons for optimism.

And while the offense will always be of the high-powered variety as long as Drew Brees is around, the defense has been the Achilles heel for years. The group finished dead last in 2015 and 31st in 2014, and currently ranks 29th.

But there's more good news yet! The defense is getting better. In Sunday's game against the Broncos (one that ended in controversy, in case you missed it), the group allowed just 337 yards, which was their second-lowest total of the season. They also created forced critical interceptions, and held Denver to just 13 points following four New Orleans turnovers. Oh, and they sacked Trevor Siemian six times.

Delvin Breaux and the Saints' D will need a big game on Thursday. Getty Images

"I thought the defense played well," Saints coach Sean Payton said, via ESPN.com. "We were able to disrupt the quarterback some. In a lot of areas, when we watch the tape, [we'll see] we did enough good things to give us a chance to win -- and yet enough things that kept us from winning."

It wasn't all unicorns and rainbows, however. Cornerback Delvin Breaux, working his way back into the lineup after missing time with an early-season injury, was victimized several times by DeMaryius Thomas, who finished with eight receptions for 87 yards and a touchdown.

Siemian lacks the athleticism and strong arm of Newton, but the Saints were able to generate pressure without much blitzing. And knowing what we know about the Panthers' offensive line, that's good news for the New Orleans.

"We did a lot of four-man rush. We've been [jelling] on the defensive line for the last four or five games," defensive end Cameron Jordansaid, per ESPN. "[Rookie Sheldon Rankins] came back and just mixed himself in. Nick Fairley's playing at such a high level right now. And it's exciting to see [Paul Kruger] get on the field and create a whole bunch of disruption, a bunch of hits. That's what we aim to do."

And it's unclear if the Panthers will be able to do anything about it.

Panthers (sorta) have recent history on their side

Continuing the "This ain't lookin' good" playoff conversation, this isn't much ... but it's something. Two years ago, the Panthers were 3-5-1, and were smack-dab in the middle of a six-game losing streak. And then they won four straight to end the regular season and found themselves in the playoffs with a 7-8-1 record. One important point: Carolina won a sorry division, edging out the 7-9 Saints, because otherwise they would have been sitting at home like the rest of us. That said, the Panthers whipped up on the Cardinals in the wild-card game before losing to the Seahawks a week later.

But other than similar records at this point in the proceedings, the 2016 version of the Panthers barely resembles their 2014 counterparts. For starters, there's no sign that this group can get hot and string together a month's worth of wins, particularly with a remaining schedule that includes the Saints, Raiders, Seahawks, Chargers, Redskins, Falcons and Buccaneers.

There's also the little issue of the Falcons currently leading the division with a 6-4 record.

The last time they met

Back on Oct. 17, Brees threw for 465 yards on 39 of 49 passing with four touchdowns and one interception. Of those 49 attempts, Brees was under pressure just 12 times and was sacked once all afternoon. The Panthers opted to blitz just six times, hoping against hope that coverage could contain the Saints' offense. Instead, Brees was an eye-popping 28 of 37 when facing no pressure, throwing for 415 yards and three scores. New Orleans' rushing game wasn't a factor; then again it didn't need to be.

On the other side of the ball, the Saints blitzed Newton on 23 of 47 dropbacks, but he fared well, completing 14 passes for 165 yards with a touchdown and a pick. But when not pressured, Newton was 20 of 30 for 236 yards, which works out to only 7.9 yards per attempt (compared to Brees' 11.2 YPA when not facing pressure).

* all stats via PFF

It's Color Rush Thursday, y'all (again)!

Behold:

They said these words

Here's Broncos defensive coordinator Wade Phillips a day after his team beat the Saints on the aforementioned controversial two-point conversion:

Phillips was accused of throwing shade, as the kids say, to which he responded thusly:

And this concludes Wade Phillips' latest lesson in trash talk.

'TNF' on Twitter returns this week

Thursday's game returns to Twitter and you'll be able to stream it -- and four subsequent games at tnf.twitter.com.

You can use your mobile device or tablet with the NFL Network app. Kickoff is at 8:25 p.m. ET.

In addition to live streaming, the NFL-Twitter partnership also includes in-game highlights from "Thursday Night Football" and pre-game Periscope broadcasts from players and teams.

Here's the remaining NFL-Twitter TNF schedule:

Be sure to CBSSports.com's Pro Football Rundown for all the latest NFL news and commentary.