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Talk to college basketball coaches and they’ll tell you they care less about their seeds in the NCAA Tournament than they care about their matchups. A 4-seed. A 5-seed. Whatever. Coaches are way more concerned with their paths to the second weekend than the numbers beside their names. They’d much rather be an 11-seed with a diminished and struggling first-round opponent than a 10-seed with a first-round contest against a school that’s playing well. Which brings me to a pair of interesting matchups:

  • No. 7 Michigan vs. No. 10 Oklahoma State
  • No. 6 Maryland vs. No. 11 Xavier

Question: Would you rather be Brad Underwood or Chris Mack right now?

Me?

I’d prefer to be an 11-seed with Xavier’s first-round game than a 10-seed with Oklahoma State’s first-round game, and here’s why: Maryland is 4-6 in its past 10 games and 2-3 since Michal Cekovsky suffered a season-ending injury. So the Terrapins are neither at full strength nor playing well. Meantime, Oklahoma State’s first-round opponent, Michigan, is 10-2 in its past 12 games with six wins in that stretch over NCAA Tournament teams. The Wolverines enter this NCAA Tournament on a five-game winning streak that culminated with them winning the Big Ten Tournament on Sunday afternoon.

Maryland is 45th at KenPom.

Michigan is 20th.

So Oklahoma State got a better seed than Xavier.

But Xavier got a more favorable game.

Now I could use the next 300 words to bemoan the seeding process, I guess. But I’ve been writing and talking about that all week. Truth is, this is just the nature of the NCAA Tournament. But it should serve as a reminder that the best teams aren’t always the ones that make the second round, Sweet 16 or Elite Eight. Schools often advance in the bracket primarily because of favorable draws.

Tennessee in 2014 is a great example.

The Vols were an 11-seed.

They were placed in the First Four and opened with an Iowa team that had lost six of seven games (and whose coach was dealing with serious family issues). So they handled that. Then they got to play a UMass team that had lost three of five games. So they handled that. Then, because Mercer somehow upset Duke, they got to play an Atlantic Sun team in the Round of 32. Predictably, they also handled that easily. And next thing you know, Cuonzo Martin is a Sweet 16 coach -- mostly because his path to the Sweet 16 included a game against a struggling Iowa team, a game against a struggling UMass team and a game against Mercer.

That’s not meant to take away from Martin’s achievement.

I hope that’s clear.

It’s just meant to underline how favorable matchups that either come as a result of bad seeding or wild upsets often dictate which schools advance in the Field of 68. Which brings me back to Michigan-Oklahoma State. And Maryland-Xavier.

Michigan and Oklahoma State are both good enough to win multiple games in the NCAA Tournament. But one of them will lose Friday and be done because it was unfortunate enough to be paired with the other. Meantime, Maryland and Xavier are both without key players and thus vulnerable enough to lose to literally any other at-large team in the field. But one of them will win Thursday and play again Saturday because it was fortunate enough to be paired with the other.

Again, Oklahoma State got a better seed than Xavier.

But Xavier got a more favorable game.

Sometimes you’re lucky.

Sometimes you aren’t.

That’s the NCAA Tournament -- every single year.