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The eighth-seeded Kentucky Wildcats have zero margin for error as they prepare to square off with the No. 9 seed Mississippi State Bulldogs in the 2021 SEC Tournament on Thursday afternoon in Nashville, Tenn. The Wildcats (9-15) finished with a sub-.500 record in conference play for the first time since 1989 and their only path to advance to the NCAA Tournament appears to hinge on winning the SEC postseason title. Kentucky could not ask for a better opponent in the second round, owning a 15-0 record against the Bulldogs (14-13) since the 2009-10 season.

Tip-off is set for noon ET at Bridgestone Arena. William Hill Sportsbook lists the Wildcats as 3.5-point favorites in the latest Kentucky vs. Mississippi State odds while the over-under for total points scored is set at 131. Before making any Mississippi State vs. Kentucky picks, be sure to see the college basketball predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past four-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of over $2,600 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. It has also returned over $400 on all top-rated college basketball picks this season. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Kentucky vs. Mississippi State in the SEC Tournament 2021. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for Mississippi State vs. Kentucky:

  • Kentucky vs. Mississippi State: Kentucky -3.5
  • Kentucky vs. Mississippi State over-under: 131 points
  • Kentucky vs. Mississippi State money line: Kentucky -180; Mississippi State +155
  • KEN: The Wildcats have not won four games in the SEC tourney since 1952
  • MISSST: The Bulldogs have outrebounded 21 of 27 opponents

Why Kentucky can cover 

Guards Brandon Boston and Davion Mintz rank 1-2 on the team in scoring, averaging 23.3 points combined, and each closed the season with big games in a 92-64 drubbing of South Carolina. Boston and Mintz scored 21 and 20 points, respectively, while nailing six 3-pointers apiece as the Wildcats rolled up a season-high point total. Boston has scored in double figures a team-high 17 times while Mintz has a streak of five in a row.

Forward Isaiah Jackson, who earned conference All-Freshman and All-Defensive team honors, is coming on strong down the stretch. He averaged 14.3 points on 65.1 percent shooting over his last six games and is the SEC leader with 2.6 blocked shots per game. Fellow forward Olivier Sarr closed the regular season with a pair of 15-point games and registered a double-double vs. Mississippi State with 14 points and 12 boards.

Why Mississippi State can cover

The Bulldogs are led by a trio of sophomores who are the only players averaging in double figures and are putting up a combined 45.6 points per game. Guard D.J. Stewart, a second-team All-SEC selection, averaged 16.5 points to nose out backcourt mate Iverson Molinar (16.4) for team-high scoring honors. He scored 19 points in the first meeting against Kentucky and had 19 in the regular-season final at Auburn.

Molinar ranks among the top 10 in the conference in scoring, field goal percentage (46.9) and three throw percentage (81.0). Complementing the guard tandem is sophomore forward Tolu Smith, who averaged 12.7 points and an SEC-best 8.6 rebounds. The 6-foot-10 Smith tied for the conference lead with seven double-doubles and posted nine games with at least 10 rebounds, including 12 against Kentucky.

How to make Mississippi State vs. Kentucky picks

The model is leaning over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 133 points. It also says one side of the spread hits well over 60 percent of the time. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Mississippi State vs. Kentucky? And which side of the spread hits in well over 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has crushed its college basketball picks.