One team will be just a step away from the NCAA Tournament after Oakland and Cleveland State meet in the Horizon League semifinals Monday at 7 p.m. ET. Oakland is favored by 7.5 points, down 1.5 from the opening line. The over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 151, down a point from the open.

Before choosing a side in this matchup of teams you might not have seen play this season, you need to see what the SportsLine Projection Model is computing.

Last season, the model was an impressive 755-636-20 on A-rated picks, returning $6,529 to any $100 player who followed it. With the NCAA Tournament just around the corner, the model is heating up, entering Monday on a 12-6 run on its top-rated picks. Anybody who has been following it is up huge right now.

Now, it has simulated Oakland vs. Cleveland State 10,000 times, breaking down every conceivable matchup and trend, and its picks are in.

We can tell you it is calling for 153 total points to be scored, clearing the over by two points. It also has a strong pick for one side against the spread, saying you can bank on it almost 55 percent of the time.

The model has taken into account Cleveland State's shocking run through the Horizon League tournament that includes a 72-71 victory over Youngstown State and an 89-80 upset of Northern Kentucky -- one of the top favorites coming into the tournament.

It has been shocking because Cleveland State is just 11-22 on the season and came into tournament tied for second-to-last in the conference standings.

But just because the Vikings have been one of the biggest surprises this postseason doesn't mean that they'll be able to keep it competitive against Oakland.

The Golden Grizzlies have an elite offense that averages almost 80 points. It is spearheaded by three elite scorers -- Kendrick Nunn (26.1 ppg), Jalen Hayes (18.8) and Martez Walker (17.6).

They share the ball well and come into Monday's game in the top 15 nationally in assists (17.1) as well. That will all be a huge challenge for a Cleveland State squad that ranks outside the top 250 nationally in scoring defense.

And when these teams met twice during the season, Oakland won by 16 and 13 points.

So which side of Oakland vs. Cleveland State do you need to be all over? Visit SportsLine now to see the strong point-spread pick that hits almost 55 percent of the time, all from the model that has absolutely crushed its college basketball picks.