The AAC tournament opens Thursday at noon ET with a first-round game between UConn and SMU, two teams looking to make a surprising postseason run. The Mustangs are favored by two points, unchanged from the opening line. Before making any kind of pick on this tight matchup, you need to see what the SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.

Last season, the model was an impressive 755-636-20 on A-rated picks, returning $6,529 to any $100 player who followed it. And with the NCAA Tournament just around the corner, the model is heating up, entering the AAC tournament on a strong 13-7 run on its top-rated college basketball picks.

Now, it has simulated UConn vs. SMU 10,000 times and its strong picks and projections are in.

We can tell you the computer says Terry Larrier of UConn will score 14 points, while Jahmal McMurray of SMU goes for 18. But will that big performance from McMurray be enough to lift SMU to a win and a cover?

The model says one side is winning against the spread over 70 percent of the time, and you can get that pick only over at SportsLine.

The model has taken into account SMU's huge slide down the stretch. Once a team with aspirations of an NCAA Tournament at-large berth, the Mustangs (16-15) have collapsed on their way to eight losses in their final nine games of the regular season.

UConn, meanwhile, defeated SMU earlier this season by double-digits despite being a six-point underdog.

But just because the Huskies have had success against the Mustangs this season doesn't mean they'll be able to upset SMU again.

UConn is just 2-6 against the spread in its last eight games, while SMU is 7-3 against the spread in its last 10 games against the Huskies.

So which side of SMU-UConn do you need to be all over? Visit SportsLine now to see the strong point-spread pick that hits over 70 percent of the time, all from the model that has crushed its college basketball picks.