The UConn Huskies will host the South Florida Bulls in AAC hoops action on Sunday at noon ET on CBS Sports Network. The Huskies are 3.5-point favorites, with the over-under set at 136 in the latest UConn vs. South Florida odds. The season has been a struggle for UConn, but they can still get back to above .500 with three wins to close out the regular season. Meanwhile, USF is 18-10 on the season and is battling with Wichita State and Tulsa for the No. 6 seed in the conference tournament. But before you weigh motivation levels and make your Connecticut vs. USF picks, be sure to check out the college basketball predictions from SportsLine's proven projection model. 

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has raked in the winnings for those following its picks. Over the past two years, the SportsLine Projection Model has returned nearly $4,200 to $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks. It also entered Week 17 of the 2018-19 college basketball season on a blistering 107-79 run against the spread. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now, the model has simulated UConn vs. USF 10,000 times. We can tell you it is leaning over, and it also has an extremely strong against the spread pick that hits in almost 70 percent of simulations. You absolutely need to see it before you lock in your own picks.

For Sunday's contest, the model knows that USF's big advantage on the road should be its pressure-oriented defense. The Bulls use guards David Collins and Laquincy Rideau to play the passing lanes and pressure the ball as well as any team in the conference. Collins averages 2.0 steals and Rideau is good for 2.9 steals per game this season. South Florida's team steal rate ranks 17th in the nation, according to KenPom.

Against a UConn offense that turns the ball over on 18.6 percent of their offensive possessions, USF should have a chance to win the turnover battle in a big way and use those extra possessions to create an edge. Collins and Rideau combined for five steals in the first meeting on Jan. 2, a 76-68 win for USF.

However, don't expect the Huskies also have a great chance to cover the UConn vs. South Florida spread on Sunday. 

Despite their current six-game losing streak, the Huskies have fought hard against Cincinnati and Wichita State in their last two games. They've also been much more competitive at home this season, where they also recently gave top-10 Houston a scare. 

Without Jalen Adams, UConn has had to lean on their perimeter shooting in recent games and after an 11-for-24 performance against Wichita State from 3-point range, the Huskies should be feeling more confident. Alterique Gilbert knocked down four 3-pointers in that game and finished with 18 points. If he can step up as the go-to scorer again on Sunday, it should help UConn stay competitive at home.

Who wins USF vs. Connecticut? And which side of the spread hits in almost 70 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the South Florida vs. UConn spread you should be all over, all from the model that has returned more than $4,000 to $100 players the last two years.