2021 Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep: 12-team Rotisserie mock draft shows personal preference coming into play
The less trustworthy the data, the less the consensus.

One of the side effects of the 2020 season is that the numbers can't speak for themselves. The sample was too small, the data untrustworthy overall, and it's already making for a draft prep season unlike those in recent memory.
It seems to me that personal preference holds more sway. Recent years have seen Fantasy baseball analysts rally around the same numbers, establishing a kind of loose consensus regarding the value of most players. But when the data is less reliable, we're able to read different things into it. Some of us might not look to it at all, instead defaulting back to our 2019 impressions.
This phenomenon seemed to be at work in our latest 12-team Rotisserie mock draft, one in which so many of the picks were completely out of line with my own rankings. It made for a relatively stress-free evening, with me dedicating each of my picks to someone who, in my estimation, fell. But it might force me to re-examine some of my assumptions.
Do new standouts like Corbin Burnes and Dinelson Lamet, who are sure to face innings limits following an early cutoff last year, deserve preferential treatment over 2020 disappointments like Charlie Morton, Patrick Corbin and Chris Paddack? I've decided they do, but the sentiment isn't universal.
Does Ketel Marte's rise to stardom in 2019 and subsequent step back count for more than Brandon Lowe's more recent success? Matt Williams of RotoFanatic would say no. What about Pete Alonso's 2019 vs. Luke Voit's 2020? You might get a different answer there.
You can break it down for yourself via the full results below, but first, let's get our introductions out of the way:
1) George Kurtz, RotoWire (@GeorgeKurtz)
2) Mike Gianella, Baseball Prospectus (@MikeGianella)
3) Zach Steinhorn, Creativesports (@zachsteinhorn)
4) Chris Towers, CBS Sports (@CTowersCBS)
5) Micah Henry, New Life Fantasy (@FantasyCentral1)
6) Scott White, CBS Sports (@CBSScottWhite)
7) Chris Mitchell, Fantrax (@CJMitch73)
8) Dan Gilbert, Fantasy Fisticuffs podcast (@DabberDanLit)
9) Matt Williams, RotoFanatic (@MattWi77iams)
10) Frank Stampfl, CBS Sports (@Roto_Frank)
11) Tim McLeod, Prospect361
12) Al Melchior, The Athletic (@almelchiorBB)
| Round 1 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Pos | Team | Player |
| 1 | Nick Francis | |
| 2 | Frank Stampfl | |
| 3 | Derek Blake | |
| 4 | Chris Towers | |
| 5 | Nick Fox | |
| 6 | Matt Morris | |
| 7 | Nate Atkins | |
| 8 | Doug Roe | |
| 9 | Scott White | |
| 10 | Doc Eisenhauer | |
| 11 | B_Don | |
| 12 | Sean Martin | |
| Round 2 | ||
| Pos | Team | Player |
| 13 | Sean Martin | |
| 14 | B_Don | |
| 15 | Doc Eisenhauer | |
| 16 | Scott White | |
| 17 | Doug Roe | |
| 18 | Nate Atkins | |
| 19 | Matt Morris | |
| 20 | Nick Fox | |
| 21 | Chris Towers | |
| 22 | Derek Blake | |
| 23 | Frank Stampfl | |
| 24 | Nick Francis | |
| Round 3 | ||
| Pos | Team | Player |
| 25 | Nick Francis | |
| 26 | Frank Stampfl | |
| 27 | Derek Blake | |
| 28 | Chris Towers | |
| 29 | Nick Fox | |
| 30 | Matt Morris | |
| 31 | Nate Atkins | |
| 32 | Doug Roe | |
| 33 | Scott White | |
| 34 | Doc Eisenhauer | |
| 35 | B_Don | |
| 36 | Sean Martin | |
| Round 4 | ||
| Pos | Team | Player |
| 37 | Sean Martin | |
| 38 | B_Don | |
| 39 | Doc Eisenhauer | |
| 40 | Scott White | |
| 41 | Doug Roe | |
| 42 | Nate Atkins | |
| 43 | Matt Morris | |
| 44 | Nick Fox | |
| 45 | Chris Towers | |
| 46 | Derek Blake | |
| 47 | Frank Stampfl | |
| 48 | Nick Francis | |
| Round 5 | ||
| Pos | Team | Player |
| 49 | Nick Francis | |
| 50 | Frank Stampfl | |
| 51 | Derek Blake | |
| 52 | Chris Towers | |
| 53 | Nick Fox | |
| 54 | Matt Morris | |
| 55 | Nate Atkins | |
| 56 | Doug Roe | |
| 57 | Scott White | |
| 58 | Doc Eisenhauer | |
| 59 | B_Don | |
| 60 | Sean Martin | |
| Round 6 | ||
| Pos | Team | Player |
| 61 | Sean Martin | |
| 62 | B_Don | |
| 63 | Doc Eisenhauer | |
| 64 | Scott White | |
| 65 | Doug Roe | |
| 66 | Nate Atkins | |
| 67 | Matt Morris | |
| 68 | Nick Fox | |
| 69 | Chris Towers | |
| 70 | Derek Blake | |
| 71 | Frank Stampfl | |
| 72 | Nick Francis | |
| Round 7 | ||
| Pos | Team | Player |
| 73 | Nick Francis | |
| 74 | Frank Stampfl | |
| 75 | Derek Blake | |
| 76 | Chris Towers | |
| 77 | Nick Fox | |
| 78 | Matt Morris | |
| 79 | Nate Atkins | |
| 80 | Doug Roe | |
| 81 | Scott White | |
| 82 | Doc Eisenhauer | |
| 83 | B_Don | |
| 84 | Sean Martin | |
| Round 8 | ||
| Pos | Team | Player |
| 85 | Sean Martin | |
| 86 | B_Don | |
| 87 | Doc Eisenhauer | |
| 88 | Scott White | |
| 89 | Doug Roe | |
| 90 | Nate Atkins | |
| 91 | Matt Morris | |
| 92 | Nick Fox | |
| 93 | Chris Towers | |
| 94 | Derek Blake | |
| 95 | Frank Stampfl | |
| 96 | Nick Francis | |
| Round 9 | ||
| Pos | Team | Player |
| 97 | Nick Francis | |
| 98 | Frank Stampfl | |
| 99 | Derek Blake | |
| 100 | Chris Towers | |
| 101 | Nick Fox | |
| 102 | Matt Morris | |
| 103 | Nate Atkins | |
| 104 | Doug Roe | |
| 105 | Scott White | |
| 106 | Doc Eisenhauer | |
| 107 | B_Don | |
| 108 | Sean Martin | |
| Round 10 | ||
| Pos | Team | Player |
| 109 | Sean Martin | |
| 110 | B_Don | |
| 111 | Doc Eisenhauer | |
| 112 | Scott White | |
| 113 | Doug Roe | |
| 114 | Nate Atkins | |
| 115 | Matt Morris | |
| 116 | Nick Fox | |
| 117 | Chris Towers | |
| 118 | Derek Blake | |
| 119 | Frank Stampfl | |
| 120 | Nick Francis | |
| Round 11 | ||
| Pos | Team | Player |
| 121 | Nick Francis | |
| 122 | Frank Stampfl | |
| 123 | Derek Blake | |
| 124 | Chris Towers | |
| 125 | Nick Fox | |
| 126 | Matt Morris | |
| 127 | Nate Atkins | |
| 128 | Doug Roe | |
| 129 | Scott White | |
| 130 | Doc Eisenhauer | |
| 131 | B_Don | |
| 132 | Sean Martin | |
| Round 12 | ||
| Pos | Team | Player |
| 133 | Sean Martin | |
| 134 | B_Don | |
| 135 | Doc Eisenhauer | |
| 136 | Scott White | |
| 137 | Doug Roe | |
| 138 | Nate Atkins | |
| 139 | Matt Morris | |
| 140 | Nick Fox | |
| 141 | Chris Towers | |
| 142 | Derek Blake | |
| 143 | Frank Stampfl | |
| 144 | Nick Francis | |
| Round 13 | ||
| Pos | Team | Player |
| 145 | Nick Francis | |
| 146 | Frank Stampfl | |
| 147 | Derek Blake | |
| 148 | Chris Towers | |
| 149 | Nick Fox | |
| 150 | Matt Morris | |
| 151 | Nate Atkins | |
| 152 | Doug Roe | |
| 153 | Scott White | |
| 154 | Doc Eisenhauer | |
| 155 | B_Don | |
| 156 | Sean Martin | |
| Round 14 | ||
| Pos | Team | Player |
| 157 | Sean Martin | |
| 158 | B_Don | |
| 159 | Doc Eisenhauer | |
| 160 | Scott White | |
| 161 | Doug Roe | |
| 162 | Nate Atkins | |
| 163 | Matt Morris | |
| 164 | Nick Fox | |
| 165 | Chris Towers | |
| 166 | Derek Blake | |
| 167 | Frank Stampfl | |
| 168 | Nick Francis | |
| Round 15 | ||
| Pos | Team | Player |
| 169 | Nick Francis | |
| 170 | Frank Stampfl | |
| 171 | Derek Blake | |
| 172 | Chris Towers | |
| 173 | Nick Fox | |
| 174 | Matt Morris | |
| 175 | Nate Atkins | |
| 176 | Doug Roe | |
| 177 | Scott White | |
| 178 | Doc Eisenhauer | |
| 179 | B_Don | |
| 180 | Sean Martin | |
| Round 16 | ||
| Pos | Team | Player |
| 181 | Sean Martin | |
| 182 | B_Don | |
| 183 | Doc Eisenhauer | |
| 184 | Scott White | |
| 185 | Doug Roe | |
| 186 | Nate Atkins | |
| 187 | Matt Morris | |
| 188 | Nick Fox | |
| 189 | Chris Towers | |
| 190 | Derek Blake | |
| 191 | Frank Stampfl | |
| 192 | Nick Francis | |
| Round 17 | ||
| Pos | Team | Player |
| 193 | Nick Francis | |
| 194 | Frank Stampfl | |
| 195 | Derek Blake | |
| 196 | Chris Towers | |
| 197 | Nick Fox | |
| 198 | Matt Morris | |
| 199 | Nate Atkins | |
| 200 | Doug Roe | |
| 201 | Scott White | |
| 202 | Doc Eisenhauer | |
| 203 | B_Don | |
| 204 | Sean Martin | |
| Round 18 | ||
| Pos | Team | Player |
| 205 | Sean Martin | |
| 206 | B_Don | |
| 207 | Doc Eisenhauer | |
| 208 | Scott White | |
| 209 | Doug Roe | |
| 210 | Nate Atkins | |
| 211 | Matt Morris | |
| 212 | Nick Fox | |
| 213 | Chris Towers | |
| 214 | Derek Blake | |
| 215 | Frank Stampfl | |
| 216 | Nick Francis | |
| Round 19 | ||
| Pos | Team | Player |
| 217 | Nick Francis | |
| 218 | Frank Stampfl | |
| 219 | Derek Blake | |
| 220 | Chris Towers | |
| 221 | Nick Fox | |
| 222 | Matt Morris | |
| 223 | Nate Atkins | |
| 224 | Doug Roe | |
| 225 | Scott White | |
| 226 | Doc Eisenhauer | |
| 227 | B_Don | |
| 228 | Sean Martin | |
| Round 20 | ||
| Pos | Team | Player |
| 229 | Sean Martin | |
| 230 | B_Don | |
| 231 | Doc Eisenhauer | |
| 232 | Scott White | |
| 233 | Doug Roe | |
| 234 | Nate Atkins | |
| 235 | Matt Morris | |
| 236 | Nick Fox | |
| 237 | Chris Towers | |
| 238 | Derek Blake | |
| 239 | Frank Stampfl | |
| 240 | Nick Francis | |
| Round 21 | ||
| Pos | Team | Player |
| 241 | Nick Francis | |
| 242 | Frank Stampfl | |
| 243 | Derek Blake | |
| 244 | Chris Towers | |
| 245 | Nick Fox | |
| 246 | Matt Morris | |
| 247 | Nate Atkins | |
| 248 | Doug Roe | |
| 249 | Scott White | |
| 250 | Doc Eisenhauer | |
| 251 | B_Don | |
| 252 | Sean Martin | |
| Round 22 | ||
| Pos | Team | Player |
| 253 | Sean Martin | |
| 254 | B_Don | |
| 255 | Doc Eisenhauer | |
| 256 | Scott White | |
| 257 | Doug Roe | |
| 258 | Nate Atkins | |
| 259 | Matt Morris | |
| 260 | Nick Fox | |
| 261 | Chris Towers | |
| 262 | Derek Blake | |
| 263 | Frank Stampfl | |
| 264 | Nick Francis | |
| Round 23 | ||
| Pos | Team | Player |
| 265 | Nick Francis | |
| 266 | Frank Stampfl | |
| 267 | Derek Blake | |
| 268 | Chris Towers | |
| 269 | Nick Fox | |
| 270 | Matt Morris | |
| 271 | Nate Atkins | |
| 272 | Doug Roe | |
| 273 | Scott White | |
| 274 | Doc Eisenhauer | |
| 275 | B_Don | |
| 276 | Sean Martin | |
| Nick Francis | ||
|---|---|---|
| Rd | Pk | Player |
| 1 | 1 | |
| 2 | 24 | |
| 3 | 25 | |
| 4 | 48 | |
| 5 | 49 | |
| 6 | 72 | |
| 7 | 73 | |
| 8 | 96 | |
| 9 | 97 | |
| 10 | 120 | |
| 11 | 121 | |
| 12 | 144 | |
| 13 | 145 | |
| 14 | 168 | |
| 15 | 169 | |
| 16 | 192 | |
| 17 | 193 | |
| 18 | 216 | |
| 19 | 217 | |
| 20 | 240 | |
| 21 | 241 | |
| 22 | 264 | |
| 23 | 265 | |
| Frank Stampfl | ||
| Rd | Pk | Player |
| 1 | 2 | |
| 2 | 23 | |
| 3 | 26 | |
| 4 | 47 | |
| 5 | 50 | |
| 6 | 71 | |
| 7 | 74 | |
| 8 | 95 | |
| 9 | 98 | |
| 10 | 119 | |
| 11 | 122 | |
| 12 | 143 | |
| 13 | 146 | |
| 14 | 167 | |
| 15 | 170 | |
| 16 | 191 | |
| 17 | 194 | |
| 18 | 215 | |
| 19 | 218 | |
| 20 | 239 | |
| 21 | 242 | |
| 22 | 263 | |
| 23 | 266 | |
| Derek Blake | ||
| Rd | Pk | Player |
| 1 | 3 | |
| 2 | 22 | |
| 3 | 27 | |
| 4 | 46 | |
| 5 | 51 | |
| 6 | 70 | |
| 7 | 75 | |
| 8 | 94 | |
| 9 | 99 | |
| 10 | 118 | |
| 11 | 123 | |
| 12 | 142 | |
| 13 | 147 | |
| 14 | 166 | |
| 15 | 171 | |
| 16 | 190 | |
| 17 | 195 | |
| 18 | 214 | |
| 19 | 219 | |
| 20 | 238 | |
| 21 | 243 | |
| 22 | 262 | |
| 23 | 267 | |
| Chris Towers | ||
| Rd | Pk | Player |
| 1 | 4 | |
| 2 | 21 | |
| 3 | 28 | |
| 4 | 45 | |
| 5 | 52 | |
| 6 | 69 | |
| 7 | 76 | |
| 8 | 93 | |
| 9 | 100 | |
| 10 | 117 | |
| 11 | 124 | |
| 12 | 141 | |
| 13 | 148 | |
| 14 | 165 | |
| 15 | 172 | |
| 16 | 189 | |
| 17 | 196 | |
| 18 | 213 | |
| 19 | 220 | |
| 20 | 237 | |
| 21 | 244 | |
| 22 | 261 | |
| 23 | 268 | |
| Nick Fox | ||
| Rd | Pk | Player |
| 1 | 5 | |
| 2 | 20 | |
| 3 | 29 | |
| 4 | 44 | |
| 5 | 53 | |
| 6 | 68 | |
| 7 | 77 | |
| 8 | 92 | |
| 9 | 101 | |
| 10 | 116 | |
| 11 | 125 | |
| 12 | 140 | |
| 13 | 149 | |
| 14 | 164 | |
| 15 | 173 | |
| 16 | 188 | |
| 17 | 197 | |
| 18 | 212 | |
| 19 | 221 | |
| 20 | 236 | |
| 21 | 245 | |
| 22 | 260 | |
| 23 | 269 | |
| Matt Morris | ||
| Rd | Pk | Player |
| 1 | 6 | |
| 2 | 19 | |
| 3 | 30 | |
| 4 | 43 | |
| 5 | 54 | |
| 6 | 67 | |
| 7 | 78 | |
| 8 | 91 | |
| 9 | 102 | |
| 10 | 115 | |
| 11 | 126 | |
| 12 | 139 | |
| 13 | 150 | |
| 14 | 163 | |
| 15 | 174 | |
| 16 | 187 | |
| 17 | 198 | |
| 18 | 211 | |
| 19 | 222 | |
| 20 | 235 | |
| 21 | 246 | |
| 22 | 259 | |
| 23 | 270 | |
| Nate Atkins | ||
| Rd | Pk | Player |
| 1 | 7 | |
| 2 | 18 | |
| 3 | 31 | |
| 4 | 42 | |
| 5 | 55 | |
| 6 | 66 | |
| 7 | 79 | |
| 8 | 90 | |
| 9 | 103 | |
| 10 | 114 | |
| 11 | 127 | |
| 12 | 138 | |
| 13 | 151 | |
| 14 | 162 | |
| 15 | 175 | |
| 16 | 186 | |
| 17 | 199 | |
| 18 | 210 | |
| 19 | 223 | |
| 20 | 234 | |
| 21 | 247 | |
| 22 | 258 | |
| 23 | 271 | |
| Doug Roe | ||
| Rd | Pk | Player |
| 1 | 8 | |
| 2 | 17 | |
| 3 | 32 | |
| 4 | 41 | |
| 5 | 56 | |
| 6 | 65 | |
| 7 | 80 | |
| 8 | 89 | |
| 9 | 104 | |
| 10 | 113 | |
| 11 | 128 | |
| 12 | 137 | |
| 13 | 152 | |
| 14 | 161 | |
| 15 | 176 | |
| 16 | 185 | |
| 17 | 200 | |
| 18 | 209 | |
| 19 | 224 | |
| 20 | 233 | |
| 21 | 248 | |
| 22 | 257 | |
| 23 | 272 | |
| Scott White | ||
| Rd | Pk | Player |
| 1 | 9 | |
| 2 | 16 | |
| 3 | 33 | |
| 4 | 40 | |
| 5 | 57 | |
| 6 | 64 | |
| 7 | 81 | |
| 8 | 88 | |
| 9 | 105 | |
| 10 | 112 | |
| 11 | 129 | |
| 12 | 136 | |
| 13 | 153 | |
| 14 | 160 | |
| 15 | 177 | |
| 16 | 184 | |
| 17 | 201 | |
| 18 | 208 | |
| 19 | 225 | |
| 20 | 232 | |
| 21 | 249 | |
| 22 | 256 | |
| 23 | 273 | |
| Doc Eisenhauer | ||
| Rd | Pk | Player |
| 1 | 10 | |
| 2 | 15 | |
| 3 | 34 | |
| 4 | 39 | |
| 5 | 58 | |
| 6 | 63 | |
| 7 | 82 | |
| 8 | 87 | |
| 9 | 106 | |
| 10 | 111 | |
| 11 | 130 | |
| 12 | 135 | |
| 13 | 154 | |
| 14 | 159 | |
| 15 | 178 | |
| 16 | 183 | |
| 17 | 202 | |
| 18 | 207 | |
| 19 | 226 | |
| 20 | 231 | |
| 21 | 250 | |
| 22 | 255 | |
| 23 | 274 | |
| B_Don | ||
| Rd | Pk | Player |
| 1 | 11 | |
| 2 | 14 | |
| 3 | 35 | |
| 4 | 38 | |
| 5 | 59 | |
| 6 | 62 | |
| 7 | 83 | |
| 8 | 86 | |
| 9 | 107 | |
| 10 | 110 | |
| 11 | 131 | |
| 12 | 134 | |
| 13 | 155 | |
| 14 | 158 | |
| 15 | 179 | |
| 16 | 182 | |
| 17 | 203 | |
| 18 | 206 | |
| 19 | 227 | |
| 20 | 230 | |
| 21 | 251 | |
| 22 | 254 | |
| 23 | 275 | |
| Sean Martin | ||
| Rd | Pk | Player |
| 1 | 12 | |
| 2 | 13 | |
| 3 | 36 | |
| 4 | 37 | |
| 5 | 60 | |
| 6 | 61 | |
| 7 | 84 | |
| 8 | 85 | |
| 9 | 108 | |
| 10 | 109 | |
| 11 | 132 | |
| 12 | 133 | |
| 13 | 156 | |
| 14 | 157 | |
| 15 | 180 | |
| 16 | 181 | |
| 17 | 204 | |
| 18 | 205 | |
| 19 | 228 | |
| 20 | 229 | |
| 21 | 252 | |
| 22 | 253 | |
| 23 | 276 | |
















