2022 Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep: Julio Rodriguez cracked Opening Day roster and Sleepers 3.0
These guys will return the most value at their current ADPs
By
Chris Towers
•
1 min read
In revisiting my sleeper picks for the 2022 season heading into the final Fantasy Baseball draft weekend, I've made a few revisions. I've removed young guys Alec Bohm and Jarren Duran and have added rookie Julio Rodriguez and veteran Carlos Carrasco to my updated and final list of picks.
Durran isn't going to make the Opening Day roster for the Red Sox, and it looks like there's a real chance Bohm won't either with Bryson Stott making a strong case to be the starting third baseman. I still like both – Bohm for his potential to combine contact and power in a good home park, Durran for his power/speed potential – but in a standard 12-team league, neither needs to be drafted, and neither can be relied on as a starter even in a 15-teamer. But I'll be keeping a close eye on how their seasons start no matter where they end up.
That means there are eight carryovers from my previous sleeper picks, and I've only grown stronger in my estimation of several of them – Luke Voit's path to an everyday role is clear now that he's been traded to the Padres, for instance, even if his price doesn't really reflect that in drafts. That's okay, more Voit for me. You can see my full list below, but first, let's say "hi" to the two newcomers:
Newcomers to Sleepers 3.0
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Rodriguez has played just 46 games above A ball, but he was so ridiculously dominant as a 20-year-old at Double-A last season that he entered camp with a chance to make the team. And he's been so good in spring training that he locked in an everyday role for Opening Day. There are going to potentially be some rough patches along the way – he's struck out nine times in 25 PA in the spring, for example – but the Mariners don't have a lot of legitimate center field options and they're all-in on making the playoffs with their offseason acquisitions of Robbie Ray and Jesse Winker. Rodriguez figures to be part of those plans, potentially from Opening Day, and his 13-homer, 21-steal totals in 74 games last season make his upside pretty obvious. I'm trying to get him everywhere I can in these late drafts, though that was a lot easier to do when he was going outside of the top 200. Now that he's on the Opening Day roster, Rodriguez is going to be a top-150 pick, and don't be surprised if he's going inside the top 100 in some drafts.
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Carrasco hasn't thrown many innings over the past three seasons, but 2021 is the only one where injuries played a role – he pitched the whole COVID-shortened season and was excellent and then missed time in 2020 following a cancer diagnosis. He had surgery in the offseason to remove loose bodies in his elbow and his velocity has reportedly been better than it typically is at this point in spring training. We're only a year removed from Carrasco posting a 2.91 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 29.3% strikeout rate, and he's going outside of the top-250 in ADP.
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Sleepers 3.0
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There aren't many players with upside at catcher, so if I'm going to wait at the position, I'm going to target a recent top prospect who should be in line for a significant role. Bart hasn't impressed in the majors so far, but he's a career .287/.348/.512 hitter in the minors, so I'm not giving up on the 25-year-old just yet. It's not clear he'll be much of a contributor in batting average, but he could be a nice source of power and run production in that lineup at a position where that can be hard to find.
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There were concerns out there about whether Voit was going to have an everyday role earlier in spring, but with his trade to the Padres, those have largely been settled. And yet, his price is still far, far too cheap in drafts, with his ADP sitting outside of the top-200. He's too good for that. Injuries limited him to 68 games last season and hampered his production, but we're still talking about a guy who has hit .271/.363/.520 in 1,133 plate appearances since joining the Yankees in 2018. He'll be an everyday player for the Padres, and while they'll be missing Fernando Tatis for the first few months, this is still a formidable lineup at the top, and Voit's power will play anywhere. He's a top-12 first baseman for me and the reason I'm willing to wait at the position.
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Vaughn is in a very similar spot to Bohm, except his underlying numbers are even better. Vaughn made the leap to the majors after just 55 combined games in the low minors, after not playing in 2020 and while learning a new position. The degree of difficulty of what he was attempting to accomplish as a 23-year-old rookie was incredibly high, and he has the promising underlying numbers to suggest he's not as far off as he seemed. Vaughn is no sure thing, but if he can find some consistency with his swing, he could be a legitimate four-category contributor, a power hitter who gets on base and doesn't hurt you in batting average. This is another bet on a high-end prospect who flashed promising skills in an overall frustrating season.
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Shoulder injuries are always a concern for pitchers, so Gonsolin carries quite a lot of risk into 2022 after dealing with shoulder inflammation last season. However, he has continued to be very effective whenever he has had the chance to pitch in the majors, totaling a 2.55 ERA with a 1.058 WHIP and 126 strikeouts in 120 innings over 27 career starts. You might not be able to expect more than 150 innings from Gonsolin, but he should be very good when he's out there. And besides, you won't need many innings for him to justify his cost at this point.
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The Marlins have a type: Hard throwers whose fastball is their worst pitch. Cabrera's changeup and slider figure to be weapons for him at the big-league level, but he couldn't command his fastball in his brief seven-start cameo in 2021, leading him to get crushed. He'll have to pitch better than that, obviously, but he was still dominant between Double-A and Triple-A last season, with a 2.93 ERA and a 36.9% strikeout rate, so I'm still very optimistic about his chances of figuring this out. There were some prospect folks who thought Cabrera was a better prospect than Sixto Sanchez even before his injury issues, and he's still Scott White's No. 56 prospect for Fantasy this season. Make him a reserve-round stash, especially in deeper leagues.
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The problem with being a pitcher who relies on one great pitch is that your margin for error is pretty slim. Cobb has been lost in the wilderness over the years searching for his changeup/splitter/'thing', but he rediscovered it in 2021, leading to his best numbers since 2017. The Giants have experience with getting the most out of a very similar pitcher in Kevin Gausman, who rode his splitter to new highs over the previous two seasons. Cobb will be backed up by a good defense in a good park to pitch in, and I'm expecting a mid-3.00s ERA, a pretty good WHIP, and better than a strikeout per inning. He's already on a lot of my teams.
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Working primarily in relief, Kopech looked very much like the guy who was one of the top pitching prospects in baseball before Tommy John surgery. His 3.50 ERA was even more impressive when backed up by a 2.83 xERA, and while doing that as a reliever is a lot different than doing it as a starter, it's proof that the stuff works against major leaguers. The question is whether he'll have the opportunity to prove himself as a starter this season and whether the stuff will hold up when he has to throw five-plus innings. Those are fair questions, especially since he was primarily a fastball/slider pitcher – though his changeup and curveball looked good the rare times he threw them. Kopech will need those two pitches to be more than show-me offerings as a starter, most likely, but the foundation is there for him to be a dominant starting pitcher. And, even if Kopech isn't in the rotation all year long, he should be a viable option for ratios and strikeouts, especially in a daily lineup league.
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The Mariners are not short on potential closing options, but I think Giles is going to emerge as the first choice if he's healthy coming off Tommy John surgery. They signed him to a two-year contract last offseason knowing he wouldn't be able to pitch in 2021, so you have to think they did so with the expectation that he would be their closer when healthy. The last time we saw him pitch a full season, he had a 1.87 ERA and 1.00 WHIP with 83 strikeouts in 53 innings in 2019. If he's anything like that guy again, he'll be one of the best closers in Fantasy, and a huge steal in the late rounds.
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