By the Numbers: Playing the field with hit location data
Does it matter whether a hitter pulls the ball or uses the whole field? Al Melchior looks at some players with extreme tendencies that could change their Fantasy fortunes.
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A couple of this year's early-season stories have centered around the pull tendencies of hitters. Mike Moustakas is suddenly and unexpectedly a .300 hitter, thanks in part to his shedding of his extreme pull-hitting ways. Mark Teixeira has gone the opposite route, strengthening his already considerable pull-hitting proclivities, and the result has been a resurgence of his power game. Several other players have started off the season with some interesting pull-hitting trends, though with less fanfare.
Fans of batted ball angle data have already had some useful online resources to exploit, most notably BaseballHeatMaps.com. Recently, FanGraphs added the percentage of balls pulled, hit to center and hit to the opposite field to the batted ball table on every player's stat page. In celebration of this easy-to-use reference, I'm going to take a look at some players whose pull percentage rates stand out.
In isolation, these pull percentage stats don't tell us much. In the cases of Moustakas and Teixeira, an improvement in one aspect of their offensive game will likely come at the expense of another. Moustakas' gain in batting average could mean less power, while Teixeira's extra homers could also come with a heavy dose of flyball outs. Overall, the changes have been favorable ones for both hitters, but that's not always going to be the case when a player goes extreme as a pull or opposite field hitter.
One also has to consider hit trajectory in concert with the hit's direction. When combined, these two dimensions produce four categories of hitter: pull-happy flyball hitters, pull-happy ground ball hitters, whole-field flyball hitters and whole-field ground ball hitters. I'm going to take a look at a pair of hitters in each category to see whether their current batted ball profile is working for them or putting a damper on their Fantasy value.
Note: All hit trajectory data are from FanGraphs. Stats are current for games played through Wednesday, May 13.
Pull-happy flyball hitters
Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Rockies: We associate an increase in pull-hitting with increased power, and that's an especially reasonable expectation for someone who has shown as much power over his career as Tulowitzki has. So why has a career-high 54 percent pull rate translated to just two home runs so far? It appears mostly because of bad luck. Tulowitzki is hitting flyballs three feet farther on average as compared to last season (per FanGraphs' Interactive Spray Chart Tool), and he has had several near-misses, some of which became doubles. That would partially explain why Tulowitzki already has 13 doubles, though it's hard to see him keeping up that pace given his plunging contact rate. If he continues to pull at a high rate, he may also have trouble maintaining a .333 batting average on grounders. Going forward, we should see Tulowitzki hit with typical power -- or better -- but it will likely come at the expense of his batting average.
Brian Dozier, 2B, Twins: No one in the majors is pulling the ball with greater frequency than Dozier, who is hitting to left field 60 percent of the time. His strong pulled flyball tendencies have benefitted him more as a doubles-hitter, as he has notched 10 of them in 33 games, but with four home runs to date, he could easily register a second straight 20-homer season. Dozier's .256 batting average is a career high, but this may be as good as it gets for him in that category. His .300 BABIP is the definition of normal for most hitters, but he appears primed to regress to his career .274 rate or lower. If his batting average rises any higher, Dozier could become a sell-high candidate.
Pull-happy ground ball hitters
Gregory Polanco, OF, Pirates: As a rookie, Polanco didn't hit for much power, but you might have imagined he would soften his already-modest ground ball tendencies in his sophomore campaign. So far, it hasn't worked out that way. Polanco has gone extreme as a ground ball hitter with a 58 percent rate, but instead of spraying the ball around the field, he is pulling 51 percent of his hit balls into right field. Not surprisingly, Polanco is batting just .236 on grounders, but with help from a 26 percent line drive rate, he has managed a .266 batting average to date. His pull-heavy approach doesn't bode well for him maintaining that average or his current rate of runs scored (20 in 32 games) or stolen bases (10). Less than six weeks into the season, it's too soon to sell high on Polanco, but at the very least, his trends bear watching for keeper league owners trying to get a bead on his long-term value.
Starlin Castro, SS, Cubs: Last season, Castro made improvements in his plate discipline, but he was starting to get a little pull-heavy. His pull tendencies have deepened, as his rate has increased from 40 to 50 percent, and he has given back his gains in plate discipline and then some. Worse yet, he has gone the Polanco route with a 63 percent ground ball rate. Castro does have three homers, but a total of just three doubles hints at the toll that pulled grounders have had on his power. His .324 batting average on ground balls looks ticketed for regression, making Castro a clear sell-high candidate.
Whole-field flyball hitters
Kris Bryant, 3B, Cubs: Bryant's 36 percent pull rate is below the major league average of 39 percent, so it may seem curious that he has pulled three homers over the last five days. It's been a tale of two months for Bryant, as he pulled a mere 29 percent of hit balls in 12 April games but a robust 46 percent in 13 May games. Bryant appears to be taking a more aggressive approach in general, having struck out in 23 of 47 May at-bats. That would explain how Bryant is batting just .234 this month after posting a .318 batting average in April. The one constant for Bryant, not only across his four weeks of play but also his minor league career, is his strong flyball tendencies. Fantasy owners need not worry about his power production, but we're currently seeing what his floor looks like in terms of batting average. I don't imagine he'll settle in the .230s, but his current .275 average could see some further erosion.
Josh Reddick OF, Athletics: Reddick has always been a flyball hitter, but as with many of his ilk, with the power has come his fair share of flyball outs. Now that Reddick is hitting the ball up the middle more often, he is getting more hits on balls in play. Actually, he is still making outs on flies, batting .037 on flyballs in play, but on grounders, he is batting .324. Between his 34 percent pull rate and ultra-low 11 percent strikeout per at-bat ratio, Reddick is emerging as a reliable .300 hitter with 25-to-30 home run power.
Whole-field ground ball hitters
Matt Holliday, OF, Cardinals: Holliday's slow and steady power decline has continued into 2015, but it hasn't hurt his Fantasy value. Only 16 percent of his hit balls have been flies, and he is on pace to miss the 20-homer mark for the first time since 2005, yet he ranks as a top 20 outfielder in Rotisserie and points formats. A .442 BABIP is doing much of the heavy lifting for Holliday so far, and while regression is practically a certainty, he is profiling as an even better hitter on balls in play than he has been over his career. Given that he has a career .340 BABIP, that's really saying something. Applying his 22 percent pull rate to his strong ground ball and line drive tendencies, it's easy to see how Holliday could hit .360 on balls in play and right around .300 overall. With an increasingly patient approach, Holliday can continue to be an elite in terms of on-base percentage and run production.
Odubel Herrera, 2B/OF, Phillies: As a Rule 5 pick with no prior experience above Double-A, Herrera's lack of exposure to major league pitching has showed at times, as he is striking out far more often than he did in the minors. A .409 batting average on grounders has helped Herrera to keep his overall batting average afloat at .275. Yes, that is a ridiculously high mark on grounders, but given the type of hitter he has been, we should at least expect Herrera to be well above-average in that regard. He is pulling just 35 percent of hit balls, and the speedy outfielder has already racked up seven infield hits. Herrera's whole-field approach makes him shift-proof, and if he can make contact a little more often, he has a shot to maintain a decent average and be an asset for stolen bases.















