Fantasy Baseball: Jon Gray is too good for the minors (and maybe the majors)

Jon Gray got a surprise demotion to Triple-A over the weekend, but Scott White explains why he'll be back soon — and better than ever.

More Fantasy Baseball: Waiver Wire | FBT Podcast

A quick glance at the roster trends reveals Jon Gray as one of the most dropped players in CBS Sports leagues.

It only stands to reason. He was just sent down to the minors, after all.

And he was sent to the minors for the most damning of reasons: poor performance. Indeed, his 5.77 ERA ranks third-to-last among qualifying pitchers.

But I'm going to reveal something to you that will shock your sensibilities and challenge everything you hold to be sacred and true: He hasn't actually pitched poorly. The results are poor, sure. The pitching itself? By everything we've come to value in 2018, it's just fine.

Better than ever, even, for the team's opening day starter, a former third overall pick who earned his share of supporters last year with a 10-4 record, 3.67 ERA and 9.1 strikeouts per nine innings in 20 starts.

How is that possible? Like most every other opinion that has folks wondering what drug I must be taking, it can be summed up by process vs. results.

The results are terrible. ERA is still a reasonable measurement for results, and Gray's leaves no room for debate. But there's a reason why ERA has fallen out of favor among those of our ilk. It only measures results, making no effort to address sustainability. As purely a record of what happened, it's not terribly predictive and by no means a measure of process.

The process equivalent is FIP. There are others, of course, but it's among the most straightforward and reliable enough. Basically, it estimates what ERA should be based on the contributions most within a pitcher's control, meaning strikeouts, walks and home runs. And despite actually being 5.77, Gray's should apparently be 3.09.

It's the 14th-best FIP in baseball, and the top 13 reads like a who's who of Cy Young candidates (or at least an ERA leaderboard):

Rank	Pitcher	FIP
1	Trevor Bauer, CLE	2.19
2	Max Scherzer, WAS	2.20
3	Jacob deGrom, NYM	2.24
4	Luis Severino, NYY	2.25
5	Chris Sale, BOS	2.39
6	Justin Verlander, HOU	2.65
7	Ross Stripling, LAD	2.68
8	Aaron Nola, PHI	2.77
9	Patrick Corbin, ARI	2.81
10	James Paxton, SEA	2.91
11	Gerrit Cole, HOU	2.99
12	Mike Foltynewicz, ATL	3.00
13	Tyler Skaggs, LAA	3.05
14	Jon Gray, COL	3.09

But ultimately, FIP still measures results, right? They may be more process-oriented results, but a skewed home run total, which can happen over an extended stretch, will warp FIP just as it does ERA.

That is why it's also worth pointing out how good Gray has been by what's to me the clearest measure of dominance: swinging-strike rate — i.e., how often professional hitters are convinced they can hit something they actually can't.

My biggest concern related to Gray coming into the season (apart from the whole Coors Field issue, which I'll address in a bit) is that he had a middling swinging-strike rate — one that didn't really jibe with his actual strikeout rate — last year. But this year, according to that metric, he has been overpowering, his rate ... well, here's the leaderboard for that:

Rank	Pitcher	SwStr%
1	Max Scherzer, WAS	17.2
2	Chris Sale, BOS	15.9
3	Jacob deGrom, NYM	15.5
4	Patrick Corbin, ARI	14.6
5	James Paxton, SEA	13.7
6	Dylan Bundy, BAL	13.7
7	Luis Castillo, CIN	13.7
8	Blake Snell, TB	13.6
9	Jon Gray, COL	13.4
10	Carlos Carrasco, CLE	13.2
11	Trevor Bauer, CLE	13.2
12	Gerrit Cole, HOU	13.2

With apologies to Luis Castillo, Gray clearly stands out here.

So it must be a Coors Field issue, right? We know that hitting environment is like none other, and we've seen it ruin potential Fantasy standouts in the past. Thing is it usually ruins them across the board, in ways that register beyond just the ERA. Gray actually has a lower ERA at home now three years in a row and with a better strikeout-to-walk ratio in each of the past two.

No, the only way to reconcile his ERA with his FIP (beyond just terrible, horrible luck) is that everything's going wrong for him all at once — i.e., he's struggling with runners on.

Well, would you look at that?

	PA	BA	OPS	K/BB
2016 - runners on	300	.266	.754	2.75
no runners on	412	.226	.667	3.40
2017 - runners on	191	.235	.666	3.40
no runners on	270	.286	.749	4.07
2018 - runners on	182	.316	.892	2.06
no runners on	230	.266	.722	7.45

It's worth noting that Gray's numbers with the bases empty also aren't quite up to snuff, but his BABIP in those situations is an obviously unsustainable .405. So there's where he's getting a healthy dose of bad luck. The real problem, though, is his disastrous line with runners on. Most telling is the contrast in strikeout-to-walk ratio. He just isn't the same guy in those situations.

The Rockies seem to recognize as much.

"This was the right time to get Jon to Triple-A to work on some things, not so much mechanically,  but mentally, and to realize the inconsistencies that have been happening this season," manager Bud Black told The Denver Post Saturday. "I think a lot of the mechanics have been worked out, so I think he's in a good spot there. I'm not so sure that he's in a good spot when he's out on the mound, pitch to pitch and inning to inning, as far as his confidence to make pitches."

Whether it's an issue pitching out of the stretch or a crisis of confidence, it's something Gray once had and can regain. After all, the stuff isn't diminished — it's better than ever, in fact —  and the low-pressure environment of the minor leagues could restore it in short order. 

Bottom line: While there is a problem, it seems small, it seems correctable, and it seems like that correction could be a loud one indeed. I don't think it's a stretch to say Gray has top-20 potential in Fantasy, and I couldn't say the same for any other minor-league arm you might be tempted to pick up and stash, not with the workload limitations they'd surely face. And the same goes for major-league pitchers. Chase Anderson, Mike Leake, Steven Matz, in his current form — they just don't have that kind of potential. Danny Duffy, with that offense backing him? Please.

Nope, I'd much rather keep stashing Gray and trust that his stay is a short one. And hey, if you never owned him in the first place, now's a great time to buy.