Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire: We need to take Zach Eflin seriously

There's a reason Zach Eflin doesn't look like the same pitcher who went 1-5 with a 6.16 ERA last season, and Zack Wheeler looks like a different guy, too.

If you need pitching, today is a good day to find it. Here are the top pitching targets for your next waiver-wire run, based on Wednesday's results. 

Apparently, Zach Eflin added 20 pounds of muscle in the offseason, which might help explain why he looks like a complete new pitcher. After averaging between 93.3 and 93.7 mph with his four-seam fastball in 2016 and 2017 — an above-average mark, but not necessarily anything to write home about — Eflin is up to 95.1 in 2018, the 29th-highest mark among all starting pitchers.

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It's too easy to put all of the credit for his emergence, which has seen him post a 3.02 ERA with 57 strikeouts in 56 2/3 innings after his seven innings of shutout ball against the Yankees on Wednesday. But it's hard to ignore, especially without any real change in his game.

Eflin may just be healthy and living up to his potential, and that potential looks pretty good.

Even when Zack Wheeler was good pre-surgery, he wasn't that good: a 3.50 ERA, yes, but a 3.77 FIP and 1.339 WHIP with merely above-average strikeout numbers just weren't much to write home about. Of course, he hasn't been any better since coming back, with a disappointing 4.47 ERA for the season. However, he does have a 3.31 ERA over his past five starts, with at least 10 swinging strikes in each, including Wednesday's outstanding 21-whiff outing. He limited the Pirates to just five hits over seven scoreless, with seven strikeouts.

Wheeler has incorporated a splitter into his repertoire this season, and that has been his best swing-and-miss pitch to date. Consistency remains an issue, but we're seeing signs of Wheeler living up to his potential, even if he isn't likely to get much help in New York.

Some step back was always expected for Mike Minor as he transitioned back to the rotation, but his 4.64 ERA to date has been disappointing even if you knew he was in store for regression. The biggest question was whether Minor would be able to sustain his pitch mix from 2017, when he leaned heavily on his slider to rack up whiffs and strikeouts, and we're seeing an interesting trend in 2018:

April: 4.33 ERA; 27.8 percent slider usage
May: 6.96 ERA; 15.6 percent
June: 2.08 ERA; 30.4 percent

With the obvious caveat that it was the Padres, Minor was tremendous Wednesday, allowing just one hit over seven shutout innings. He hasn't been racking up huge strikeout numbers overall in June, but I think it's only a matter of time for that. I'm willing to take a chance that better days are ahead.

It's been a miserable season for Danny Duffy, but if you look close, there are reasons to be encouraged. Look past the 4.94 overall ERA, because Duffy has a 2.52 ERA over his past four starts, with 29 strikeouts in 25 innings. As has been the case all season, his control has been a problem, with 12 walks in 25 innings, but Duffy's velocity has also continued to increase from his slow start, and he has averaged 94.5 mph with his fastball in June, nearly a full mph higher than any month in 2017.

Given how mediocre his control has been even during these better performances, I don't think Duffy can reach the heights of his 2016 again, but it's fair to think he's better than his results have been so far. I'd rather take a chance on Eflin or Wheeler, but Duffy is showing he can still be a difference-maker.