2015 MLB Home Run Derby: Tale of the tape
Let's take a look at each of the 2015 Home Run Derby combatants through the prism of the numbers.
With the 2015 Home Run Derby just around the bend, let's provide you with a quick rundown of some relevant numbers. How best to gauge each competitor's chances this time around? The numbers, of course! So here's what we'll be laying out in this "tale of the tape" (forthcoming: a glossary!) ...
Fly-ball percentage: The percentage of balls in play that a batter hits in the air above "line drive" angles.
HR/fly-ball percentage: The percentage of fly balls that a batter hits out of the park.
Avg. distance/HR or fly ball: The average distance, in feet, that a batter's home runs and/or fly balls travel.
Avg. exit velocity: The average speed of the ball off the bat of a given hitter.
Hard-hit percentage: The percentage of balls off the bat that are classified as "hard-hit" by a professional scouting service.
Also, we'll include each batter's 2015 home runs overlaid on a diagram of Cincinnati's Great American Ballpark, which, per sketchy Internet rumor, will play host to the 2015 Home Run Derby. GABP is one of the friendliest home run parks for both right-handed and left-handed power hitters, although it's slightly more accommodating toward the former.
Anyhow, we're arranging the hitters by Derby seeding. The format is different this time around, you know? Speaking of same, here's the bracket ...
Coming to Cincy: Magnetic #HRDerby bracket. All-Stars will make & tweet their picks from the field. Who’s your champ? pic.twitter.com/AO4LhS9QE4
— MLB (@MLB) July 8, 2015
Now: The numbers!
The following data come courtesy of FanGraphs, BaseballHeatMaps and BaseballSavant. As for the the Great American Ballpark overlays, Greg Rybarczyk's very wonderful Home Run Tracker makes it all possible.
In order of seeding ...
No. 1: Albert Pujols, Angels
Fly-ball percentage: 42.6%
HR/fly-ball percentage: 21.5%
Avg. distance/HR or fly ball: 292.1 ft
Avg. exit velocity: 92.2 mph
Hard-hit percentage: 34.9%

No. 2: Todd Frazier, Reds
Fly-ball percentage: 48.9%
HR/fly-ball percentage: 18.5%
Avg. distance/HR or fly ball: 292.4 ft
Avg. exit velocity: 91.3 mph
Hard-hit percentage: 39.1%

No. 3: Josh Donaldson, Blue Jays
Fly-ball percentage: 37.9%
HR/fly-ball percentage: 19.6%
Avg. distance/HR or fly ball: 296.3 ft
Avg. exit velocity: 92.6 mph
Hard-hit percentage: 38.0%

No. 4: Joc Pederson, Dodgers
Fly-ball percentage: 40.8%
HR/fly-ball percentage: 25.6%
Avg. distance/HR or fly ball: 311.5 ft
Avg. exit velocity: 93.5 mph
Hard-hit percentage: 41.5%

No. 5: Manny Machado, Orioles
Fly-ball percentage: 40.1%
HR/fly-ball percentage: 17.3%
Avg. distance/HR or fly ball: 292.1 ft
Avg. exit velocity: 92.4 mph
Hard-hit percentage: 34.4%

No. 6: Anthony Rizzo, Cubs
Fly-ball percentage: 41.5%
HR/fly-ball percentage: 14.5%
Avg. distance/HR or fly ball: 290.5 ft
Avg. exit velocity: 88.4 mph
Hard-hit percentage: 34.5%

No. 7: Prince Fielder, Rangers
Fly-ball percentage: 35.1%
HR/fly-ball percentage: 13.5%
Avg. distance/HR or fly ball: 284.2 ft
Avg. exit velocity: 93.2 mph
Hard-hit percentage: 36.8%

No. 8: Kris Bryant, Cubs
Fly-ball percentage: 48.1%
HR/fly-ball percentage: 13.3%
Avg. distance/HR or fly ball: 293.3 ft
Avg. exit velocity: 89.3 mph
Hard-hit percentage: 36.4%

So ... who ya got?
















