Give Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto credit: He doesn't beat around the bush. Less than a month after acknowledging his team may have to take a step back and rebuild, Dipoto has traded away catcher Mike Zunino and ace James Paxton for younger players. It stands to reason more Mariners players will be on the move soon. (They don't call him Trader Jerry for nothing.)

Among those potential trade chips is shortstop Jean Segura, who authored a .304/.341/.415 (112 OPS+) batting line in 2018 and a .308/.353/.449 (116 OPS+) batting line from 2016-18. Add in solid shortstop defense and Segura has racked up 13 WAR the last three years, making him one of the most productive middle infielders in baseball. 

Furthermore, Segura is signed affordably for another four years. He's owed $14.85 million annually from 2019-22 before a $17 million club option comes into play for 2023. Segura is only 28, remember. He turns 29 in March. That is a very reasonably price for the age 29-32 (and potentially age-33) seasons of a comfortably above-average two-way shortstop.

Not surprisingly, Segura's name has popped up in several trade rumors in recent days and he very well could be the next Mariner on the move. Quality shortstops are hard to find. That's a reason for the Mariners to keep him. It's also a reason to cash in on his trade value if they're not expecting to contend. Let's break down the Segura rumors, shall we?

MLB: Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners
Shortstop Jean Segura may be the next Mariner on the move. USATSI

The Padres want Segura

Interestingly enough, the Padres are among the teams with interest in Segura, and the two teams have reportedly discussed a deal that would send Segura and righty Mike Leake to San Diego for sometimes first baseman, sometimes outfielder Wil Myers. 

Now that's a fun trade rumor. On the surface, it doesn't appear to make sense for the rebuilding Padres -- San Diego has the best farm system in baseball but they also lost 96 games in 2018, and aren't a shortstop and an innings-eater away from contention -- but dig deeper and it starts to come together.

What would the Padres get out of it? A comfortably above-average two-way player at a hard-to-fill position, for starters, plus he's signed affordably long-term through what should be his prime years. It feels like the Padres have had a revolving door at shortstop since trading away Ozzie Smith. Segura would settle that down immediately.

San Diego would also pick up a steady source of league-average innings in Leake. Teams always need innings. The Padres could keep Leake or flip him elsewhere. The Cardinals are paying part of his contract as well. The non-Cardinals portion of Leake's deal amounts to $22 million from 2019-20 with an $18 million club option for 2021.

On top of that, the Padres reportedly remain interested in Mets right-hander Noah Syndergaard, and they are one of the few teams with the prospects to swing a deal. Turning Myers into Segura (and Leake), then using an elite middle infield prospect like Fernando Tatis Jr. or Luis Urias (plus more) to nab Syndergaard would be a nifty little series of moves.  

What would the Mariners get out of it? You have to believe Myers still has another level (or two) in his game to buy this one for Seattle. His production is on par with that of C.J. Cron, who the Rays just dropped from their 40-man roster. Don't believe me? Look:


PA AVG/OBP/SLG OPS+ HR XBH

Cron, 2017-18

933

.251/.316/.470

113

46

90

Myers, 2017-18

992

.247/.325/.457

109

41

99

Cron is a year older, but he and Myers are two right-handed hitters who fit best defensively at first base. Remove the names, look at the numbers, and the two are practically indistinguishable. Cron was just cut from the 40-man roster. Myers is owed $74 million from 2019-22. The Padres have Eric Hosmer entrenched at first base, so it makes sense why they'd want to move Myers.

For this trade to make sense for the Mariners, one of two things has to be true. One, they have to be getting another piece or two in the trade. Or two, the Mariners believe the soon-to-be 28-year-old Myers is about to take a (big) step forward and become the true impact hitter he was expected to be back in the day, when he was a Tier 1 prospect and the 2013 AL Rookie of the Year. Seattle could put Myers at first base and hope it clicks in what should be his prime years.

The Yankees want Segura

The Yankees and Mariners completed the Paxton trade a few days ago and, during those talks, New York reportedly asked about Segura as well. Obviously the two sides couldn't agree to a larger trade. They could revisit their Segura talks later in the offseason though.

What would the Yankees get out of it? A Didi Gregorius replacement. Gregorius will miss the start of the 2019 season as he recovers from Tommy John surgery and the Yankees, as a win-now team, do not want to replace him with a cheap stopgap. It might come to that, but their preference is to add an impact player because they don't know how long Gregorius will be sidelined. Mets utility man T.J. Rivera had Tommy John surgery last September and didn't make it back this year, for example.

The Yankees could plug the more-than-capable Segura in at shortstop in the short-term. The long-term? They'd figure that out when the time comes. Perhaps they put Gregorius at short, Segura at second, Gleyber Torres at third, and move the defensively challenged Miguel Andujar to first base. Or maybe they'd let Gregorius walk as a free agent next offseason and commit to Segura as their full-time shortstop. Point is, the Yankees want Segura to cover shortstop while Sir Didi it out. What happens once Gregorius returns is anyone's guess.

What would the Mariners get out of it? Hard to say without knowing exactly what Seattle would get in return. The Mariners already acquired Justus Sheffield, New York's top prospect, in the Paxton trade. The Yankees still has some quality prospects to peddle (Estevan Florial, Michael King, Jonathan Loaisiga, etc.) that could entice the Mariners. Clearly, Dipoto's goal here is to build a young talent base. Even if the Yankees make Torres and Andujar off-limits, they have the pieces to swing a Segura trade.

The Phillies want Segura

The Phillies seem like the perfect landing spot for Segura. Former top prospect J.P. Crawford has struggled early in his big-league career, ditto infielder Scott Kingery, and underrated second baseman Cesar Hernandez is mentioned in trade rumors perpetually. Philadelphia wouldn't have much trouble fitting Segura into their lineup. From MLB.com's Jon Morosi:

The Phillies also have interest in Segura, who is known for his bat control and could help a Philadelphia lineup that finished third in the majors with 1,520 strikeouts this year. 

What would the Phillies get out of it? A quality middle infielder -- Segura can play second base in addition to shortstop -- and a contact-oriented hitter for the top of the lineup. Despite their second-half fade, the Phillies did take a step forward in 2018, and Segura would help them take another step forward in 2019. He'd improve their offense and defense. In terms of WAR, it's not a stretch to say Segura would be a 3-4 win upgrade over the Crawford/Kingery combination.

Now, that said, it's not unreasonable to believe the Phillies should give Crawford and/or Kingery more time to find themselves at the MLB level. Plenty of guys, Segura included, needed a few years before settling in as impact big-leaguers. Segura is a sure thing though. He's an All-Star caliber middle infielder and those guys are hard to find. Why did the Yankees trade Sheffield for Paxton? Because they're ready to win now and Sheffield's best-case scenario is basically Paxton, so of course they traded the potential Paxton for the real Paxton. The same would apply to the Phillies replacing Crawford/Kingery with Segura.

What would the Mariners get out of it? As with the Yankees rumor, it's tough to say without knowing the package that would head to Seattle. It stands to reason the Mariners would insist on Crawford or Kingery as part of the return. Philadelphia also has several MLB ready or near-MLB ready pitching prospects (Ranger Suarez, JoJo Romero, Enyel De Los Santos) who could interest the Mariners. Dipoto would add to his young talent base and presumable clear some payroll space.

The X-factor here is the Mariners' timetable for contention. Do they think they're a year away from being a serious postseason threat? Two years? Five years? Zunino and Paxton were both two years away from free agency. It made sense to move them now, especially Paxton given his injury history. Segura is under contract another four years, however, and potentially a fifth. It's easier to see him being part of the next contending Mariners team.

Given their offseason activity to date, it seems like a matter of "when" Segura will be traded, not "if." He's really good and he's signed to a reasonable contract, so the Dipoto and the Mariners should be able to net a really nice return. We know the Padres, Yankees, and Phillies are interested. I imagine many other clubs are as well. The Angels, Blue Jays, Brewers, Cardinals, Dodgers, Mets, Rockies, and Twins all jump out as potential landing spots when you consider Segura's ability to play second base.