Generally speaking, I'm more in the lane that the best players are the most valuable when we start talking about the MVP award. I believe, for example, that Mike Trout should have more than the two MVPs he's won. I'm also always open-minded to discussing special circumstances. I believe, for example, that Yadier Molina has been a lot more valuable over the years than his career WAR indicates, because his teammates continually say how important he is. 

It is on this front that I'd like to discuss a thought that popped into my head on Monday: 

Mariners closer Edwin Diaz was coming off a weekend series in which his team swept the defending World Series champion Astros in four games and he saved all four. 

For what it's worth, the MVP ballot has 10 spots and "down ballot" means I was asking if Diaz should be thrown a ninth or 10th place vote. As things stand, he only ranks fifth in WAR on his own team, so here's where the special circumstances come into play. 

The Mariners are basically only in contention because they are 30-15 in one-run games and 10-1 in extra innings. That's how they are playing so far over their run differential (negative-23; good for a Pythagorean W-L of 58-62). According to SportsLine's projections, the Mariners have a 28 percent shot at reaching the postseason.  

Diaz leads the majors in games finished (53) and with 46 saves. For what it's worth, Francisco Rodriguez currently holds the single-season record with 62 saves for the Angels in 2008. Rodriguez finished eighth in the voting that year. 

Diaz has struck out 100 compared to 15 walks in 59 innings. Per Fangraphs WAR, he's the most valuable reliever in baseball (actually now tied with A's ace reliever Blake Treinen, who also belongs in this conversation). Of the Mariners' 30 one-run wins, Diaz has gotten the save 24 times. He has appeared in 27 of them. 

Again, if we consider that pretty much the only reason the Mariners are within 2 1/2 games of a playoff spot right now is the 30 one-run wins and that Diaz has been a major reason for that, his "value" skyrockets, no? They are playing 11 wins over their head and Diaz successfully closed down 24 one-run victories. I don't see how he's not one of the more valuable players in the AL. 

It would be foolish to say Diaz is as valuable a player as Mookie Betts or Jose Ramirez or Mike Trout or J.D. Martinez or even Chris Sale. He's not even close. However, if things continue down this road and the Mariners come close to reaching the postseason, then we should see his name toward the bottom of some AL MVP ballots in, say, the 9 or 10 slot.