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USATSI

In all likelihood, two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani will win the American League MVP Thursday evening. He will be honored as an Angels player, but he's currently a free agent. He's going to become the 32nd player in MLB history to win multiple MVPs. It's a group headed up by Barry Bonds' seven and goes all the way back to the likes of Walter Johnson, Mickey Cochrane and Rogers Hornsby. 

The list gets a lot more exclusive once we require a third MVP. Ten players have won at least three MVPs while Bonds has seven. Here's the list:

  • Barry Bonds: 7 (1990, 1992-93, 2001-04)
  • Jimmie Foxx: 3 (1932-33, 1938)
  • Joe DiMaggio: 3 (1939, 1941, 1947)
  • Stan Musial: 3 (1943, 1946, 1948)
  • Roy Campanella: 3 (1951, 1953, 1955)
  • Yogi Berra: 3 (1951, 1954-55)
  • Mickey Mantle: 3 (1956-57, 1960)
  • Mike Schmidt: 3 (1980-81, 1986)
  • Alex Rodriguez: 3 (2003, 2005, 2007)
  • Albert Pujols: 3 (2005, 2008-09)
  • Mike Trout: 3 (2014, 2016, 2019)  

Ohtani has basically been able to have three seasons where he was close to healthy enough to be a full-time, two-way player. He won two MVPs and it took a historic season from Aaron Judge to force Ohtani into the runner-up spot in 2022. 

I bring this up because it's clear that, during his prime, Ohtani is incredibly likely to win MVP in every two-way season unless there's a historic season up against him. 

Oh, Ohtani also finished fourth in Cy Young voting in 2022 and he's certainly got enough talent to win that award, too. 

Everyone can probably see where this is heading, so let's just get to it. How many MVPs and Cy Youngs will Ohtani win in his career? Let's attempt to correctly predict. 

Cy Young

The AL Cy Young race was actually a relatively open field. Had Ohtani avoided injury and closed strong, he would've had a legitimate chance to win it. And to reiterate, he finished fourth in voting in 2022. That was with 28 starts, so he might not even need a season with 30-plus starts in order to win the award.

On the other hand, he's now had elbow surgery twice. Given how important his bat is, there's a distinct possibility that another arm injury means he's shut down from pitching forever. There's also the chance that Ohtani could be moved to a relief role instead of starter at some point, making him a combo DH/closer, which would be all kinds of fun. That would still give him plenty of bonus points in any MVP race, but it's a lot tougher for closers to win the Cy Young these days. 

While I certainly think it's plausible to argue that Ohtani will win a Cy Young at some point, I think the safest bet is he ends his career without this one.

Predicted number of career Cy Youngs: Zero.

MVP

Next season, Ohtani will only be a hitter as his pitching arm recovers from surgery. Now, let's be clear: Ohtani can absolutely win the MVP as a DH. He hit .304/.412/.654 (184 OPS+) with 26 doubles, eight triples, 44 homers, 95 RBI, 102 runs and 20 stolen bases in 135 games last season. Put him on a team with a better offense and give him 155 games or so and that's an MVP season. 

Starting with 2025, hopefully, we can add pitching back to the menu, too. 

As noted above, even if Ohtani's arm needs a move to the bullpen, putting up those kind of offensive numbers while performing as a high-level closer would be a cheat code in MVP voting -- not nearly as much as being a starter, but still enough to give Ohtani a gigantic advantage of players who don't pitch. 

Ohtani is 29 years old right now. He doesn't have a body type that suggests he'll age poorly. He runs well, but he isn't a speed-only guy where we'd worry about something like "once his speed goes, he's done." 

In fact, there's every reason to believe Ohtani ages quite well. We're talking about a freak of nature who insists on playing every single day when not injured. He doesn't even take the All-Star break off. Maybe he'll need to be a bit more willing to rest moving into his 30s, but everything from his physical tools to his preparation suggests he will be highly productive player into his mid- or even late-30s. 

Ohtani is about to win his second MVP on a non-contender, but there's still a good portion of the voting bloc that would prefer he play for a contender. Let's say he signs with the Dodgers and they win 100 games next year while he produces basically the same offensive season he did in 2023. I think he would win MVP.

Then the pitching component gets added back to Ohtani's game for 2025 and beyond. 

It wouldn't be too much of a stretch to predict he ends up with something like five or six or even a Bonds-tying seven MVPs. 

As I see it, though, there are two factors holding him back from challenging Bonds. First up, there's voter fatigue and that's been proven to be a real thing time and again. Voters simply get tired of putting the same player first every season and will convince themselves that someone else is more worthy this time around.

There's also the concern with Ohtani's right arm. It's hell to go through one elbow surgery, let alone two. It's distinctly possible that he'd have to give up pitching within the next few years. Should that happen, it's a lot more difficult to win MVP, especially with all the ridiculous young talent in baseball right now.

I do not think this is the last time Ohtani wins MVP, but I'm reluctant to go crazy. I feel very confident he gets a third. Past that, I'm not confident at all. I'll say he gets past everyone except Bonds, though, because that would be fun. 

Predicted number of career MVPs: Four.