NASCAR at Kansas takes center stage on Saturday night under the lights for the KC Masterpiece 400 at 8 p.m. ET. After opening at 5-2, Kevin Harvick tops the NASCAR at Kansas odds board at 2-1 and will start on the pole. Kyle Busch is right behind him at 7-2, and Kyle Larson is listed at 6-1 after opening at 8-1. Ten drivers in the KC Masterpiece 400 field are going off at lower than 20-1.

SportsLine's prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has a proven track record in multiple sports. It also powers McClure's DFS projections, which have led him to over $1 million in career winnings.

McClure, who has a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big racing events like this are in his blood, and his model has been crushing its 2018 NASCAR picks.

It nailed the 1-2 finish for Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick at the O'Reilly Auto Parts 500. It also correctly called seven of the top 10 finishers at the STP 500 and placed champion Clint Bowyer, who at 15-1 odds wasn't a top Vegas contender, in the projected top 10. Additionally, it was all over three of the top five finishers in the Auto Club 400 at Fontana. Anybody who has been following the model is up huge this year.

Now that the NASCAR at Kansas field is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

One driver the model loves this week: Kurt Busch, who's listed at 18-1 NASCAR at Kansas odds. The model says he'll make a strong run at the title.

It's a surprising pick because Busch has never taken the checkered flag at Kansas, but he is coming off back-to-back top-five finishes at Talladega (second) and Dover (fifth). He also was seventh at Texas last month.

Busch will start eighth in the KC Masterpiece 400 and finished second in the fall race at this track last year after starting in 16th. He's a driver you should be all over.

Another shocker for Saturday: Kyle Larson, a top Vegas favorite, barely finishes in the top 10.

Larson has been hot recently, including top-10 finishes at Bristol and Richmond in the past few weeks, but historically has struggled at Kansas, with an average finish position of 21st in eight career events. Larson's career-best showing at Kansas is a runner-up finish four years ago, and he took sixth in this race last year.

There are much better values to be had than the 8-1 premium he'll cost you.

The model also says three other drivers going off with odds of 18-1 or longer make a serious run at the checkered flag, including one who is getting no credit at all from Vegas. Anyone who bets on these underdogs could strike it rich.

So who wins the 2018 KC Masterpiece 400 at Kansas? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the full projected leaderboard from the model that is crushing its NASCAR picks this year.

Kevin Harvick 2-1
Kyle Busch 7-2
Kyle Larson 6-1   
Martin Truex Jr. 8-1
Brad Keselowski 10-1
Ryan Blaney 10-1
Denny Hamlin 18-1
Clint Bowyer 18-1
Aric Almirola 18-1  
Kurt Busch 18-1
Erik Jones 20-1
Joey Logano 20-1