Just two races remain before the NASCAR playoffs, with the penultimate taking place on Sunday at 3 p.m. ET. The 2021 FireKeepers Casino 400 will run at Michigan International Speedway, which was at one point owned by Roger Penske. His drivers have won this race five times, including Joey Logano claiming the checkered flag in 2016 and 2019. Ryan Newman, with Penske Racing in 2004, also has a victory here but is an extreme 250-1 underdog for NASCAR at Michigan 2021.

Among the favorites in the 2021 FireKeepers Casino 400 odds at Caesars Sportsbook are Kyle Larson (3-1), Martin Truex Jr. (6-1) and Kyle Busch (13-2). Defending champion Kevin Harvick (8-1) is one of nine drivers with 2021 NASCAR at Michigan odds of 12-1 or shorter, so this could be a highly competitive race. Before scouring the 2021 FireKeepers 400 starting lineup and making any NASCAR at Michigan predictions, be sure to see the latest 2021 FireKeepers Casino 400 picks from SportsLine's proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

The model began the 2020 season paying out big by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. The model also called Kevin Harvick's win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure then used the model to lock in a 10-1 bet on Hamlin for his win at Miami.

At the Brickyard, the model called Harvick's fourth victory of the season. Then during the 2020 NASCAR Playoffs, the model nailed its NASCAR picks in back-to-back races, calling Denny Hamlin to win at 17-2 at Talladega and Chase Elliott to win at 7-2 at the Charlotte Roval.

In the 2021 season, McClure nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. The model also nailed Kyle Larson winning the NASCAR All-Star Race at 5-2 and hit Larson again at the Ally 400 for another 5-2 payout. It also called Chase Elliott to win at Road America for a 5-2 payout and then correctly predicted the top five drivers at Watkins Glen. Anyone who has followed its lead on those plays has seen huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the 2021 FireKeepers Casino 400 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2021 NASCAR at Indianapolis leaderboard.

Top 2021 FireKeepers Casino 400 predictions

One surprise: the model is high on Joey Logano, even though he's a 12-1 long shot in the latest NASCAR at Michigan odds 2021. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. After finishing among the top five in Cup Series standings the last three years, including being champion in 2018, Logano is again making a push to the top of the leaderboard. He currently ranks sixth in points despite being unlucky with three DNFs, but his 372 laps led ranks fourth in the Cup Series.

The model recognizes Logano's previous NASCAR at Michigan success, which includes three wins, the most recent coming in 2019. He's been on another level since linking up with Penske in 2013, as he's posted 14 top-10s in 16 NASCAR at Michigan races. That kind of success normally isn't seen at NASCAR's highest level and Logano also has a Michigan victory on the Xfinity series. Most expect Logano to again finish in the top five of NASCAR's standings and his performance in the 2021 FireKeepers Casino 400 will have much to do with that.

And a massive shocker: Martin Truex Jr., one of the Vegas favorites at 6-1, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top five. There are far better values in this loaded 2021 FireKeepers Casino 400 starting grid. Truex is tied for second in NASCAR with three wins, but he's been a bit inconsistent and enters Sunday in seventh overall.

He's finished outside the top 10 in eight of his last 12 Cup starts and will head back to a track where Victory Lane has been elusive. Truex has three runner-up finishes and six third-place finishes at Michigan, but he's never won there. In fact, he's finished outside the top 10 in 17 of his 30 Cup starts there.

How to make 2021 NASCAR at Michigan picks

The model is also targeting three other drivers with 2021 NASCAR at Michigan odds of 12-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. It also sees value in a massive triple-digit long shot. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the 2021 FireKeepers Casino 400? And which massive triple-digit long shot is a shocking value? Check out the latest 2021 NASCAR at Michigan odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2021 FireKeepers Casino 400 leaderboard, all from the model that has called three of the last nine winners and nailed the top five at Watkins Glen. 

2021 FireKeepers Casino 400 odds

Kyle Larson 3-1
Martin Truex Jr. 6-1
Kyle Busch 13-2
Chase Elliott 15-2
Denny Hamlin 15-2
Kevin Harvick 8-1
Brad Keselowski 12-1
Joey Logano 12-1
Ryan Blaney 12-1
William Byron 14-1
Alex Bowman 20-1
Christopher Bell 25-1
Kurt Busch 30-1
Tyler Reddick 40-1
Aric Almirola 60-1
Austin Dillon 60-1
Ross Chastain 75-1
Matt DiBenedetto 75-1
Daniel Suarez 125-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 150-1
Bubba Wallace 150-1
Chris Buescher 250-1
Ryan Newman 250-1
Erik Jones 300-1
Cole Custer 300-1
Chase Briscoe 300-1
Michael McDowell 300-1
Ryan Preece 500-1
Anthony Alfredo 2500-1
Corey Lajoie 2500-1
James Davison 5000-1
Cody Ware 5000-1
Josh Bilicki 5000-1
Garrett Smithley 5000-1
Quin Houff 5000-1
B.J. McLeod 5000-1