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The Charlotte Hornets hit the road to face the Atlanta Hawks in a must-win matchup for both teams on Wednesday evening. The Hornets and Hawks tied at 43-39 in the regular season and earned the No. 9 and No. 10 seeds in the Eastern Conference. As such, the teams square off in the NBA play-in tournament, with the loser ending the season without a playoff berth and the winner staying alive for another win-or-home clash on Friday. Gordon Hayward (foot) is out for the Hornets, with John Collins (finger/foot) and Lou Williams (back) ruled out for the Hawks.

Tip-off is at 7 p.m. ET in Atlanta. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Hawks as 5.5-point home favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 235.5 in the latest Hornets vs. Hawks odds. Before you make any Hawks vs. Hornets picks, be sure to check out the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer simulation model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters the 2022 NBA playoffs on a stunning 85-55 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning almost $2,400. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Hornets vs. Hawks, and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see its picks. Now, here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Hawks vs. Hornets:

  • Hornets vs. Hawks spread: Hawks -5.5
  • Hornets vs. Hawks over-under: 235.5 points
  • Hornets vs. Hawks money line: Hawks -220, Hornets +180
  • CHA: The Hornets are 23-17-1 against the spread in road games
  • ATL: The Hawks are 23-18 against the spread in home games

Why the Hornets can cover

Charlotte's offense is dynamic and Atlanta's defense is porous. The Hornets are in the top eight of the NBA in offensive efficiency, scoring nearly 1.14 points per possession, and Charlotte is an elite passing team. Charlotte leads the league in assists (28.1 per game), with top-three marks in assist percentage (65.6 percent) and assist-to-turnover ratio (2.12). The Hornets are in the top three in both fast break points (16.3 per game) and points in the paint (51.4 per game), with tremendous 3-point shooting. Charlotte is making 36.5 percent of 3-point attempts, and the Hornets average 13.9 3-pointers per game. 

Three players average at least 19 points per game for the Hornets, and the Hawks rank in the bottom five of the NBA in defensive efficiency. Atlanta gives up 113.7 points per 100 possessions, and the Hawks are No. 25 or worse in 3-point defense and turnover creation. On the other side, the Hornets fuel their offense with havoc creation on defense, as Charlotte ranks in the top five in turnovers created (15.0 per game) and steals (8.6 per game). 

Why the Hawks can cover

In addition to offensive strengths of their own, the Hawks project well in key defensive areas and the Hornets are scuffling on defense. Atlanta is in the top five of the NBA in free throw prevention, yielding only 19.9 attempts per game, and the Hawks are above-average in defensive rebound rate (73.1 percent) and second-chance points allowed. Offensively, the Hawks are No. 2 in the NBA, scoring more than 1.15 points per possession and leading the league in turnovers with only 11.9 per game. 

Atlanta is in the top seven in field goal accuracy, 3-point accuracy, and free throw accuracy, with the Hawks also generating more than two assists for every turnover. The Hawks are keyed by a dynamic guard in Trae Young, and Charlotte has glaring defensive weaknesses. Charlotte ranks in the bottom 10 of the NBA in points allowed per possession and fast break points allowed, and the Hornets land in the bottom five in defensive rebound rate and second-chance points allowed.

How to make Hawks vs. Hornets picks

SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, projecting 240 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Hornets vs. Hawks? And which side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.