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The Milwaukee Bucks host the Memphis Grizzlies in a battle between top-tier teams on Friday. Milwaukee is 58-22 overall and locked into the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, while Memphis is 50-30 and aiming to clinch the No. 2 seed in the West with a victory. Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee), Jrue Holiday (rest), Brook Lopez (rest), Khris Middleton (knee), Pat Connaughton (ankle), and Grayson Allen (ankle) are out for the Bucks. Steven Adams (knee) and Brandon Clarke (Achilles) are out for the Grizzlies, with Santi Aldama (elbow) listed as doubtful.

Caesars Sportsbook lists Memphis as 7.5-point road favorites, and tip-off is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET from Fiserv Forum. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 229.5 in the latest Grizzlies vs. Bucks odds. Before locking in any Bucks vs. Grizzlies picks, you'll want to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model enters the final week of the 2022-23 NBA regular season a stunning 71-36 on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $3,000. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Bucks vs. Grizzlies and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the NBA lines and trends for Grizzlies vs. Bucks:

  • Grizzlies vs. Bucks spread: Grizzlies -7.5
  • Grizzlies vs. Bucks over/under: 229.5 points
  • Grizzlies vs. Bucks money line: Grizzlies -320, Bucks +250
  • Memphis: The Grizzlies are 13-25-1 against the spread in road games
  • Milwaukee: The Bucks are 23-15-2 against the spread in home games
  • Grizzlies vs. Bucks picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why the Grizzlies can cover 

Memphis is playing extremely well right now, posting a 12-4 record in the last 16 games. That is the best mark in the NBA over that sample, with Memphis scoring 119.6 points per 100 possessions. The Grizzlies lead the league in points in the paint on offense, with top-eight marks in fast break points, offensive rebound rate, second-chance points, and turnover rate on that side of the floor. From there, Jaren Jackson Jr. anchors an elite defense that can bother any opponent.

Memphis is allowing fewer than 1.11 points per possession this season, a top-five figure in the NBA. The Grizzlies lead the league in field goal percentage allowed (45.3%), with top-five marks in 2-point percentage allowed (52.0%) and points allowed in the paint (47.5 per game). Memphis is also in the top quartile of the league in turnovers created (15.1 per game), steals (8.3 per game), and blocked shots (5.8 per game), and Milwaukee will be operating without the lion's share of its shot creators.

Why the Bucks can cover

Milwaukee's defense is tremendous, forming the foundation of the team's immense success this season. The Bucks allow only 110.4 points per 100 possessions, a top-four mark in the NBA in overall defensive efficiency. Milwaukee leads the league in 2-point percentage allowed (51.2%), and the Bucks are in the top three of the NBA in field goal percentage allowed (45.4%) and free throw prevention (21.1 attempts allowed per game). 

The Bucks yield only 23.7 assists per game, a top-five mark in the league, and Milwaukee effectively prevents transition opportunities by allowing only 12.7 fast break points per game. The Bucks also have clear edges on offense, including a prolific 3-point attack, and Milwaukee could benefit in a close game from the reality that Memphis is dead-last in the NBA in free throw accuracy, making only 73.3% of attempts.

How to make Grizzlies vs. Bucks picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Under on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 229 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Bucks vs. Grizzlies? And which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.