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USATSI

Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks visit the Miami Heat in a rematch on Wednesday evening. Not only did the two teams square off in the 2020 NBA Playoffs, the Heat and Bucks also played in Miami on Tuesday, and Milwaukee cruised to a blowout victory. Miami is 1-2 on the season after the loss to the Bucks, and Milwaukee is 2-2. Jimmy Butler (ankle) was absent from the first contest on Tuesday, and he'll miss Wednesday's contest as well. 

Tip-off is at 7:30 p.m. ET in Miami. William Hill Sportsbook lists the Bucks as six-point road favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 228.5 in the latest Bucks vs. Heat odds. Before you make any Heat vs. Bucks picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it returned over $5,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks last season. The model is up nearly $8,100 over the past two seasons. Dating back to last season, it is on a stunning 62-36 roll on top-rated picks against the spread, returning almost $2,200 on those selections alone. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Bucks vs. Heat. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NBA odds from William Hill and trends for Heat vs. Bucks:

  • Bucks vs. Heat spread: Bucks -6
  • Bucks vs. Heat over-under: 228.5 points
  • Bucks vs. Heat money line: Bucks -245, Heat +205
  • MIL: The Bucks are 18-18 against the spread in the last 36 road games
  • MIA: The Heat are 21-12-1 against the spread in the last 34 home games

Why the Bucks can cover

The Bucks didn't need a dynamic game from Antetokounmpo on Tuesday, but he still has impressive numbers this season after winning the 2019-20 NBA MVP award. Antetokounmpo is averaging 21.5 points and 11.3 rebounds per game, with Khris Middleton adding 26.3 points (including 51.9 percent from three-point range), 6.5 rebounds and 5.8 assists. 

As a whole, the Bucks lead the NBA in offensive rating (nearly 1.24 points per possession), net rating (+14.9 points per 100 possessions) and effective field goal percentage (60.8 percent), while landing second in the league in offensive rebound rate (32.6 percent). Miami is also struggling in a few key areas, with the second-worst offensive rebound rate (18.4 percent) in the league and the worst ball security numbers, turning the ball over on 20.0 percent of possessions offensively.

Why the Heat can cover 

Miami struggled mightily on defense against Milwaukee on Tuesday and that drags down some of its season-long numbers. However, the Heat have been strong in a few areas on both ends of the floor. Miami is a top-five shooting team thus far, with a 56.5 percent effective field goal shooting mark. The Heat are also in the top five in assist rate (65.8 percent) and, even if Butler can't play, Miami has talent in Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro and others. Adebayo leads the team in averaging 18 points and seven rebounds per game, with Herro adding 15.7 points and 4.7 assists per game. 

Defensively, Miami is creating havoc, forcing a turnover on 17.6 percent of possessions and ranking third in the NBA in generating 10.3 steals per game. Miami is also No. 1 in the NBA in points allowed in the paint (36.7 per game) and that is key against a dynamic creator like Antetokounmpo.

How to make Heat vs. Bucks picks

SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, with 10 players projected to score in double figures. The model also says one side of the spread hits over 50 percent of the time. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Heat vs. Bucks? And which side of the spread hits over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Bucks vs. Heat spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks.