LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers host Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks on Friday night. Both teams are mostly healthy heading into Friday's showdown between the two conference leaders. For Milwaukee, George Hill (groin) is questionable, while Los Angeles has Anthony Davis (knee) and Alex Caruso (hamstring) listed as probable.

Tip-off is set for 10:30 p.m ET from the Staples Center. Sportsbooks list the Lakers as one-point home favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 228.5 in the latest Bucks vs. Lakers odds. Before you make any Lakers vs. Bucks picks or NBA predictions, see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it's already returned almost $4,000 in profit on all top-rated NBA picks during the 2019-20 season. It also entered Week 20 a blistering 49-31 on all top-rated NBA spread picks this season. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns. 

Now, the model has set its sights on Bucks vs. Lakers. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA odds and trends for Lakers vs. Bucks:

  • Bucks vs. Lakers spread: Lakers -1
  • Bucks vs. Lakers over-under: 228.5 points
  • Bucks vs. Lakers money line: Los Angeles -114, Milwaukee -104
  • MIL: The Bucks are just 2-4 ATS in road games over the past month.
  • LAL: The Lakers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games. 

Why the Lakers can cover

The model is well aware that home court advantage has been a big factor for the Lakers this season. Their 54.8 percent against the spread cover rate when playing on the road has risen to 57.1 percent at the Staples Center. Los Angeles' +5.5 point differential on the road is strong, but that number is up to +9.7 when playing at home. 

Davis figures to be the x-factor in Friday's matchup. He is coming off of a 37-point and 13-rebound performance against the 76ers, and he had 36 points, 10 rebounds, five assists, and three blocks the last time he faced the Bucks. Also, if there is any player in the NBA capable of slowing down Antetokounmpo, Davis is that man. As a team, the Lakers are giving up 107.1 points per game, which ranks fifth in the NBA.

Why the Bucks can cover

Even so, Los Angeles isn't a lock to cover the Lakers vs. Bucks spread. The model is well aware that the Bucks covered the spread the last time these two teams faced, and all the season-long statistics point towards the Bucks being the superior team. Milwaukee ranks above the Lakers in offensive and defensive efficiency, as well as rebounding rate. The Bucks have the NBA's best record at 52-9, and their +12.2 point differential is the best in the NBA by a wide margin. 

It's also worth noting that the last time these teams faced, the Bucks were without Eric Bledsoe, and Khris Middleton's minutes were limited as he worked his way back from injury. This time around, Middleton is coming off of the best month of his season, and Bledsoe is fully healthy. So, if Antetokounmpo is struggling to find his shot against the defense of Davis, he'll have a lot more help available to him.

How to make Bucks vs. Lakers picks

SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total. In fact, the model is projecting Davis, Middleton and Bledsoe all to finish below their scoring averages. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that hits in well over 50 percent of simulations.

So who wins Lakers vs. Bucks? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bucks vs. Lakers spread you need to jump on Friday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.