Cavaliers vs. Warriors odds on Christmas: Picks from expert who's 16-8 on Cavs' games

Galin Dragiev has his finger on the pulse of LeBron James and the Cavs and has a strong Christmas Day pick

There is no bigger regular season date in the NBA than Christmas, and there is no bigger matchup on this holiday than a rematch of the last three NBA Finals. The Golden State Warriors host the Cleveland Cavaliers at 4 p.m. on ABC, the main event in a five-game, 12-plus-hour NBA stretch.

The Warriors are 4.5-point favorites, a huge shift from the opening of 7.5. The Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 221.5, slightly up from the opening line of 221. 

It's a rematch of the last three NBA Finals, but with Stephen Curry expected to miss the game as he rehabs an injured ankle, you need to read what SportsLine NBA expert Galin Dragiev has to say about it before choosing a side of the spread. 

Dragiev learned early on to predict the outcome of the game before determining how success trickles down to individual players, so he spent more time studying team outcomes than projecting individual players. When it comes to predictions, he trusts numbers above all else.

And when it comes to the Cavs, Dragiev is especially red-hot, nailing 16 of his last 24 picks involving LeBron James and company.

Golden State has not lost a step since Curry injured his ankle on Dec. 4. The Warriors hadn't even lost a game without their star point guard until Saturday night's peculiar subpar effort against the Nuggets.

Their 12-game win streak was snapped Saturday in a 96-81 home loss to Denver thanks in big part to a stretch where the team missed 20 consecutive three-point attempts. Heading into Christmas Day, Golden State (26-7) remains in a virtual tie with Houston (25-6) for top honors in the Western Conference.

Kevin Durant has upped his offensive game in Curry's absence. He is averaging more than 32 points during the stretch as the unquestioned No. 1 option.

Thanks to Saturday's poor offensive output, the team fell to No. 2 in the NBA in scoring at 115 points per game. However, the Warriors are still first in field goal percentage (50.6 percent), second in three-point percentage (38.8) and first in free throw percentage (81.3).

The Cavs aren't far behind in most offensive categories. They're No. 4 in scoring at just over 111 points per game and rank in the top four in each of the three shooting percentages.

LeBron James is in the thick of the MVP race, averaging 28.4 points on 57 percent shooting, 8.2 rebounds, 9.2 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.5 blocks.

While Kevin Love remains a reliable No. 2 option in Cleveland (19.8 points, 10.2 rebounds per game), the team's second unit has been a big boost. Three reserves -- Dwyane Wade, Jeff Green and Kyle Korver -- average in double figures.

This is the first game of a lengthy stretch away from home for the Cavs. They play eight of their next nine games on the road before starting a three-game home stand on Jan. 15 -- against the Warriors.

Will the defending champion Warriors knock off the Cavs once more, or will Cleveland get revenge, or at least stay within the spread? Dragiev's pick is in for the most-anticipated regular season game of the season. Visit SportsLine to see which side of Warriors-Cavaliers you need to be all over, all from an expert who's 16-8 on Cavs' picks.