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The Boston Celtics (1-0) and Miami Heat (0-1) needed seven games to determine the Eastern Conference Finals a season ago and now the two title contenders will go head-to-head on Friday. The Celtics won the series before losing to the Warriors in the NBA Finals but began their 2022-23 season with a 126-117 win over the 76ers on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the Heat dropped their season-opener to the Bulls 116-108 on Wednesday 

After playing 10 times between the regular season and postseason a year ago with Boston winning six of those contests, they'll renew the rivalry on Friday with tip-off from FTX Arena scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. Boston is favored by 2 points in the latest Heat vs. Celtics odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under is set at 218.5. Before you make any Celtics vs. Heat picks and predictions, you'll want to see the NBA predictions from the advanced computer model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model went on a stunning 88-60 roll on all top-rated NBA picks last season, returning over $2,100. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Celtics. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA betting lines for Celtics vs. Heat:

  • Heat vs. Celtics spread: Celtics -2
  • Heat vs. Celtics over/under: 218.5 points
  • Heat vs. Celtics picks: See picks here

Why the Heat can cover

Miami was the top seed in the East last year after going 53-29 and held a 2-1 series lead over Boston to earn its way back to the NBA Finals before losing in seven games. And the Heat have certainly gotten used to playing the underdog role against the Celtics, with Boston favored in each of the last five games of the series.

The Heat won two of those games outright and also won one of the regular-season meetings outright as an underdog. Jimmy Butler averaged 25.6 points, 7.0 rebounds, 3.4 assists and 2.0 steals per game during the Eastern Conference Finals and he's coming off a 24-point game where he got to the free-throw line 16 times in the loss to the Bulls. The Celtics sent the 76ers to the line 28 times on Tuesday night and Butler could help Miami take control of the game by attacking the rim on Friday.

Why the Celtics can cover

Boston won six of 10 against Miami last season during the playoffs and regular season and also covered the spread in six of those contests. Now the Celtics are coming off an impressive season-opening nine-point win over the Celtics as 3-point favorites to open the 2022-23 NBA season.

Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown both poured in 35 points and combined to shoot 27-of-44 from the floor in the victory. Expect the Celtics to try to isolate at least one of the two against Tyler Herro as often as possible after he posted a minus-18 plus-minus and struggled defensively on Wednesday in the loss to Chicago.

How to make Celtics vs. Heat picks

The model has simulated Heat vs. Celtics 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Under and it's also generated a point-spread pick where one side covers in over 50% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Heat vs. Celtics? And which side of the spread covers over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on Friday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.