Zion Williamson and the New Orleans Pelicans welcome the Miami Heat to town for an intriguing matchup on Friday evening. Both teams will be missing key pieces, with JJ Redick (hamstring) out of the lineup for New Orleans and both Tyler Herro (ankle) and Meyers Leonard (ankle) out of action for Miami. The Heat enter Friday's matchup having won four straight games. New Orleans, meanwhile, has lost four of its last five. 

Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET at the Smoothie King Center. Sportsbooks list the Pelicans as 1.5-point home favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 235.5 in the latest Heat vs. Pelicans odds. Before you make any Pelicans vs. Heat picks or NBA predictions, see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it's already returned almost $4,000 in profit on all top-rated NBA picks during the 2019-20 season. It also entered Week 20 a blistering 49-31 on all top-rated NBA spread picks this season. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns. 

Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Pelicans. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA odds and trends for Pelicans vs. Heat:

  • Heat vs. Pelicans spread: Pelicans -1.5
  • Heat vs. Pelicans over-under: 235.5 points
  • Heat vs. Pelicans money line: Pelicans -125, Heat +105
  • MIA: The Heat are 4-9 against the spread in their last 13 games
  • NO: The Pelicans are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games

Why the Heat can cover

The model knows that the Heat are an above-average offensive team. Miami ranks No. 1 in the NBA in free throw creation and No. 3 in the league in shooting efficiency. Against a Pelicans team that has been largely disappointing defensively, the Heat should have a path to high-end efficiency on the offensive end. That includes star power with Jimmy Butler, who is averaging 20.3 points, 6.8 rebounds and 6.3 assists per game as his team's No. 1 option. 

Miami is also an above-average defensive team, quarterbacked by All-Star big man Bam Adebayo. The Heat are No. 2 in the NBA in defensive rebounding and the Pelicans rarely generate free throw attempts, mitigating an occasional weakness for Miami in sending opponents to the charity stripe with over-aggressive play.

Why the Pelicans can cover

Even so, Miami isn't a lock to cover the Pelicans vs. Heat spread. The model also knows that the Pelicans are enjoying big-time success with Williamson on the floor. The multi-talented rookie is averaging 24.0 points and 6.8 rebounds per game and, in addition to his individual success, New Orleans is outscoring opponents by 9.8 points per 100 possessions when Williamson is on the floor. Much of that is tied to his offensive production, with the Pelicans scoring at an elite clip of 114.0 points per 100 possessions when Williamson plays. He is also flanked by a budding star in Brandon Ingram, averaging 24.6 points and 6.2 rebounds per game, and the Pelicans are a very strong team in shooting efficiency and offensive rebounding. 

On the defensive side, New Orleans isn't as effective, but the Heat have a penchant for turning the ball over and, if they do, the Pelicans should be able to fuel their explosive transition offense.

How to make Heat vs. Pelicans picks

SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, with both Butler and Williamson projected to outperform their scoring averages. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations.

So who wins Pelicans vs. Heat? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Heat vs. Pelicans spread you need to jump on Friday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.