Miami Heat v Golden State Warriors
Jed Jacobsohn

The Houston Rockets (9-18) will try to extend their improbable two-game winning streak when they face the Miami Heat (14-15) on Thursday night. Houston has won three of its last four games, including victories over Milwaukee and Phoenix earlier this week. Miami has a chance to get back to the .500 mark after winning three of its last four games as well. 

Tipoff is set for 8 p.m. ET from Houston. Miami is favored by 4 points in the latest Rockets vs. Heat odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under is set at 218.5. Before entering any Heat vs. Rockets picks, you'll want to see the NBA predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model enters Week 9 of the 2022-23 NBA season on a stunning 26-10 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $1,400. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Rockets vs. Heat. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA betting lines for Heat vs. Rockets:

  • Rockets vs. Heat spread: Rockets +4
  • Rockets vs. Heat over/under: 218.5 points
  • Rockets vs. Heat money line: Houston +150, Miami -178
  • Rockets vs. Heat picks: See picks here

Why the Rockets can cover

Houston entered the month of December with a 5-16 record, but the Rockets have come alive over the past two weeks. They have recorded wins over Phoenix (twice), Philadelphia and Milwaukee, despite being at least 6.5-point underdogs in all four of those games. Their most recent win came against the Suns on Tuesday, as Jalen Green scored 26 points and Houston never trailed. 

They have held consecutive opponents below 100 points and are now riding a five-game home winning streak. Phoenix shot just 32% from beyond the arc, which was its lowest shooting percentage since 2017. Houston has covered the spread in six straight home games, while Miami has only covered once in its last six games overall. 

Why the Heat can cover

Miami now has back-to-back road wins for the first time this season after Tyler Herro knocked down a game-winning jumper with 4.9 seconds remaining against Oklahoma City on Wednesday. Herro led six players in double figures by matching his career-high of 35 points while hitting a career-best nine 3-pointers. Bam Adebayo had a double-double with 15 points and 13 rebounds. 

The Heat played without leading scorer Jimmy Butler against Oklahoma City, but he is expected to rejoin the lineup for this game. Butler has been hot over his last three games, averaging 25.3 points, 5.7 assists and 4.7 rebounds. Miami has dominated Houston in recent years, covering the spread in seven of the last eight meetings between these teams. 

How to make Heat vs. Rockets picks

The model has simulated Rockets vs. Heat 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Under, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Heat vs. Rockets? And which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine to see which side of the Rockets vs. Heat spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.