Jayson Tatum will come back down to earth in Brooklyn, other best bets for Tuesday

Tatum has shot only 28.1% from the floor in Brooklyn

By Tom Fornelli

Jun 1, 2021 at 4:15 pm ET • 5 min read

Hello, and Happy Tuesday! I know I often start the newsletter by saying "Happy Whatever Day It Is," but I figured it would come in handy today, considering I'm not entirely convinced it isn't Monday. Darn those three-day weekends confusing my feeble brain!

Anyway, I hope you enjoyed your holiday weekend. I enjoyed mine, as I spent most of it watching sports. I even spent time watching the Stanley Cup Playoffs and had a few thoughts I want to share here. The first is about yesterday's schedule.

I have no idea how the NHL could feel it was a good idea to have two games on Memorial Day and have both of them played simultaneously during the evening. Particularly when one was a Game Seven! There wasn't any NBA yesterday afternoon, either. Wouldn't it have made sense to have the Islanders and Bruins play during the afternoon when they had the spotlight to themselves and then give a Game Seven between Montreal and Toronto its spotlight in primetime?

It would to me!

My other thought is a rule proposal. It's not a new idea, but it's one that I was reminded of while watching this weekend. If a team commits a penalty in the final two minutes of a period, the team that receives the power play should have the right to defer the start of the power play until the next period begins. It's stupid to have a 47-second power play at the end of a period and then a 1:13 one to start the next. Give them the option of having the entire two minutes at the start of the next period on a fresh sheet of ice.

Gary Bettman, if you're reading this, I know I just gave you two ideas for free, but I have better ones, and I'll share them with you too if you pay me money. Just think about it!

Now for some of my other great ideas.

All times Eastern, and all odds via William Hill Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

Celtics at Nets, 7:30 p.m. | TV: TNT
The Pick: Jayson Tatum Under 33.5 points (-110): Jayson Tatum was phenomenal during two games in Boston, scoring 90 points with 13 rebounds and 12 assists while shooting 50% from the floor overall and 44.4% from three. He made a living at the free-throw line, getting there constantly and making the shots, hitting 30 of 32 attempts.

He's been a one-man team, but the problem with carrying the world on your shoulders is that the world is heavy on its own, and Tatum's trying to do it against Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and James Harden. It's an impossible task, and one he isn't likely to maintain, particularly now that the series heads back to Brooklyn where the calls might not be as friendly (the refs wouldn't want Celtics fans throwing water bottles at them, would they?).

Tatum's performance was different in the first two games of this series. He averaged only 15.5 points per game while shooting 28.1% from the floor and 28.6% from three. He also got to the line only 13 times in two games. Of course, he only played 21 miserable minutes in a blowout Game Two loss, which skews the numbers a bit, but the overall shooting was still poor.

Now, back in Brooklyn, with the Nets wanting to wrap this up, I can't help but think Tatum's going to wear out tonight. He's a great player, but Tatum alone just won't be enough.

Key Trend: Tatum shot only 28.1% from the floor in Brooklyn.

Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: I've given you a prop, but if you're looking for a more traditional play in this game, the Advanced Computer Model loves a play on the total, and two SportsLine experts agree on the spread.

💰 The Picks

Chicago Cubs Summer Workouts — Getty Images

🏀 NBA

Blazers at Nuggets, 9 p.m. | TV: NBA TV
The Pick: Aaron Gordon Over 11.5 points (-115) -- During the NBA playoffs, I like to bet on players with solid usage rates to have a bounce-back performance after a terrible game. That's what I'm doing with Aaron Gordon. Since coming to Denver from Orlando, Gordon has averaged only 10.2 points per game, but in the first three games of this series against Portland, he averaged 14 points per game while shooting 44.1% from the floor. We saw some expected regression in Game Four, as Gordon finished with only six points on 2-of-7 shooting.

As the series returns to Denver, I'm banking on a rebound from Gordon. There's a lot of value on this total.

Key Trend: Gordon has scored at least 12 points in four of six games against the Blazers this season.

⚾ MLB

Padres at Cubs, 8:05 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Under 8 (-110) -- It's going to be one of those nights that pitchers love at Wrigley Field. With the wind blowing in stiffly from right field, Wrigley becomes death to fly balls. Even without the wind, it's a park that plays differently at night than during the day. According to Statcast's Park Factors, Wrigley is just below league-average for hitters during the day and ranks 17th overall. Once the sun goes down, Wrigley drops to 23rd in the league for hitters.

It doesn't hurt that Kyle Hendricks starts for the Cubs tonight, either. While Hendricks got off to a rough start to the season, he's found his form of late, posting an ERA of 2.67 in five May starts. Hendricks keeps the ball on the ground on his own, and now the few fly balls he does allow won't have much chance of leaving the park.

Key Trend: The under is 7-2 in the last nine Cubs games.

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: Both the Advanced Computer Model and the SDQL Gurus love a money line play in tonight's game between the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Angels.