Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks will host LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers on Friday night. The Mavericks will be without big man Kristaps Porzingis (knee), while both superstars are banged-up for the Lakers. James (illness) is considered probable, while Anthony Davis (back) seems to be at a real risk of missing Friday's action.

Tip-off is set for 9:45 p.m ET from the American Airlines Center. Sportsbooks list Dallas as two-point home favorites, while the over-under for total points is 222.5 in the latest Lakers vs. Mavericks odds. Before you make any Mavericks vs. Lakers picks or NBA predictions, you'll want to see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and last season it returned a whopping $4,280 on its top-rated NBA spread and money line picks. It's already returned almost $1,800 in profit on all its top-rated NBA picks during the 2019-20 season and entered Week 11 on a blistering 26-13 run on all top-rated NBA spread picks. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Lakers vs. Mavericks on Friday. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Mavericks vs. Lakers:

  • Lakers vs. Mavericks spread: Mavericks -2
  • Lakers vs. Mavericks over-under: 222.5 points
  • Lakers vs. Mavericks money line: Dallas -129, Los Angeles +108
  • LAL: Despite winning all four of their January games, the Lakers are just 1-2-1 ATS in the new year.
  • DAL: The Mavericks have covered the spread in just 36 percent of home games -- the third-worst mark in the NBA.

Why the Mavericks can cover

The model is well aware that Davis is a legitimate risk to miss this game for Los Angeles. He left Tuesday's game early after a hard fall, and this is the front end of a back-to-back for the Lakers. It wouldn't be a surprise to see L.A. hold him out until Saturday to get an extra day of rest.

Even if Davis plays, Dallas is one of the few teams that has given the Lakers trouble this season. The Mavs took the Lakers to overtime early in the season and then beat them by 14 at the Staples Center in the next meeting. The Lakers took the third game between these two teams, but Doncic wasn't playing a full allotment of minutes fresh off an injury. In the first two meetings, Doncic had no problem against L.A.'s defense, averaging 29 points, 11 rebounds, and 13 assists. Expect a similar level of play from Doncic on Friday, as he's upped his averages to 34 points, 11 rebounds, and nine assists in the month of January. Even so, Dallas isn't a lock to cover the Mavericks vs. Lakers spread on Friday night.

Why the Lakers can cover

The model is also well aware that home court advantage has meant almost nothing for Dallas. The Mavericks have just a 36.8 percent cover rate against the spread when playing at home, and their point differential is actually better on the road. The Lakers have been the better team all season, so why are the Mavericks favored when they have seen no boost from playing on their home court this season?

While Dallas has sputtered a bit after the Porzingis injury, Los Angeles enters Friday's game in full stride. The Lakers have won six-straight games, including a convincing win over the Mavs to close out 2019. Also, the Lakers have had no problems playing on the road this season. They have a 50 percent cover rate when traveling, which is up to 75 percent when playing as a road underdog.

How to make Lakers vs. Mavericks picks

SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, and it also says one side of the spread hits in nearly 60 percent of simulations.

So who wins Lakers vs. Mavericks? And which side of the spread hits in nearly 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Mavericks vs. Lakers spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.