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USATSI

The Phoenix Suns will look to continue their home domination over the Dallas Mavericks when they meet in a key Western Conference matchup on Christmas night at Footprint Center in Phoenix. The Suns (14-14), who are 58-28 against Dallas all-time in games played in Phoenix, have not lost a season series to the Mavericks (17-12) since the 2015-2016 season. Dallas, which is battling New Orleans and Houston for Southwest Division supremacy, is 6-4 over the past 10 games, but just 2-4 over the past six. Kyrie Irving (heel, out) of the Mavs and Bradley Beal (ankle, out) of the Suns are the most notable injuries.

Tipoff is set for 10:30 p.m. ET. Both teams have been hot from the floor this season, with Dallas hitting 46.7% of its field goal attempts this season, while Phoenix is making 47.1% of its shots. Phoenix is a 4.5-point favorite in the latest Mavericks vs. Suns odds via SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 238.5. Before making any Suns vs. Mavericks picks, you need to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters Week 9 of the 2023-24 NBA season on a sizzling 101-52 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning well over $4,000. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Mavs vs. Suns and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Suns vs. Mavs:

  • Mavericks vs. Suns spread: Suns -4.5
  • Mavericks vs. Suns over/under: 238.5 points
  • Mavericks vs. Suns money line: Suns -182, Mavericks +152
  • DAL: The Mavericks are 5-5 against the spread in their last 10 games
  • PHO: The Suns have hit the game total over in 25 of their last 36 home games (+14.00 units)
  • Mavericks vs. Suns picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why the Suns can cover

Forward Kevin Durant has scored 25 or more points in a franchise-record 21 consecutive games, including a 28-point effort in Friday's 120-105 loss to the Sacramento Kings. He scored a game-high 40 points on 16 of 28 shooting in a 109-104 defeat at Portland on Tuesday. He is connecting on 87.1% of his free throws, including a franchise-record 68 in a row from Nov. 10 to Dec. 2. For the season, he is averaging 30.9 points, 6.2 rebounds, 5.4 assists and 1.1 blocks in 36.6 minutes per game.

Guard Grayson Allen, acquired from the Milwaukee Bucks in a three-team trade in September, has played in 23 games this year, all starts. He is coming off an 11-point, four-rebound, three-steal and two-assist effort in Friday's loss to the Kings. He is averaging 12.2 points, 4.6 rebounds, 2.7 assists and one steal per game, and is connecting on 48.2% of his field goals, including 45.1% from 3-point range. Allen is one of just six players in the NBA to shoot over 39% from 3-point range in each of the past four seasons. See which team to pick here.

Why the Mavericks can cover

Guard Luka Doncic continues to be a dominant force for Dallas. He scored 39 points, grabbed 12 rebounds and added 10 assists for his sixth triple-double of the season and second against San Antonio in as many games against the Spurs. Doncic scored 40 points, while grabbing 12 boards and dishing out 10 assists in a 131-120 win at Portland on Dec. 16. Doncic is averaging 32.7 points, 9.1 assists and 8.4 rebounds per game, and is connecting on 48.5% of his shots from the floor.

Small forward Derrick Jones Jr. has reached double-digit scoring in two of the past three games. In Saturday's win over San Antonio, he scored 11 points, while pulling down four boards. He scored a season-high 24 points and added four rebounds in a 126-120 loss to Oklahoma City on Dec. 2. For the season, Jones is averaging 9.9 points, 3.6 rebounds and 1.1 assists in 24.6 minutes of play. See which team to pick here.

How to make Suns vs. Mavericks picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Under on the total, projecting 235 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 60% of simulations. You can only see the model's NBA picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Mavericks vs. Suns, and which side of the spread hits over 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model on a 101-52 roll on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.