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For all of the flak the NBA has gotten during the superteam era, basketball's postseason has actually grown less predictable over the past decade. From 1992-2010, the preseason favorite won the championship in 11 out of 19 seasons. That's a rate of around 57 percent. Yet since 2011, the preseason has won five of the 10 available championships. That's a 50 percent hit rate, and really, it's a bit lower, as the favorite entering the postseason has won only four of those titles, as the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors quickly gained favorite status once the season started, but ultimately lost the championship to the preseason favorite Cleveland Cavaliers in what is considered a monumental upset. 

The sample is too small to draw any meaningful conclusions about why these upsets are happening or if they will continue to occur, but many of the ingredients present for previous surprising champions are lurking this season. Injuries felled the 2019 Warriors, and both of this season's favorites have struggled to stay healthy through a condensed schedule. The 2011 Miami Heat melted down in the Finals, their first season together with the Big Three. The Brooklyn Nets have significantly less experience together than that Heat team did. With 3-point shooting volume and efficiency at all-time highs, the NBA has never had more game-to-game variance. 

So let's look at the championship odds for this upcoming postseason and attempt to figure out where the value lies. The Los Angeles Lakers and Nets are as formidable as ever, but that doesn't mean they're the best bets on the board. 

All odds via William Hill Sportsbook

The Favorites

  • Brooklyn Nets: +225
  • Los Angeles Lakers: +350

At a bare minimum, there isn't much value in betting the Lakers or Nets now. The only thing likely to increase either of their odds before the postseason would be a significant injury befalling the other. If you're convinced that the Lakers or Nets are going to win the championship, the wise play from a value standpoint would be to wait until the playoffs and use the remainder of the regular season to assess their health. 

Debating the Lakers and the Nets against one another at this stage is subjective, but Brooklyn is undeniably the safer bet between the two. The Nets' star power insulates them against further health problems in ways the Lakers likely envy. If Kevin Durant tweaks his ankle and misses five playoff games? James Harden and Kyrie Irving can keep Brooklyn afloat. If LeBron James tweaks his ankle and misses five playoff games? Pack it in. The Lakers will likely start every series this postseason on the road. The Nets may well start every series at home. They're in the Eastern Conference, and if they hold onto the No. 1 seed, will only need to beat one other true championship contender to reach the Finals. The Lakers might need to beat three. Even if the Lakers are better than the Nets, they're a far riskier bet. 

The odds reflect that, and it creates an undeniable opportunity. James has reached the Finals in his past nine healthy postseasons. By that logic, the risk only presents itself against a Brooklyn-caliber opponent in the final round. If you doubt the Nets in the East, betting the Lakers amounts to grabbing a favorite at a non-favorite price, and even if Brooklyn gets to the Finals, the Lakers won't exactly be pushovers there. Of course, if the Nets reach the Finals, it likely means that they've answered any existing questions about their roster.

The Nets are something of an anomaly in that sense. There is a universe in which they rampage through the playoffs like the 2017 Warriors or 2001 Lakers, overwhelming their opponents through talent alone and hardly ever losing. There is also a universe in which they flame out in the second round. Yet their range of outcomes doesn't seem particularly wide. It's probably going to be one or the other. If the Nets' flaws are exploitable enough to knock them out, it's going to become evident quickly. They're a team light on rim protection that might have to face Giannis Antetokounmpo, Joel Embiid and Anthony Davis in consecutive rounds. Either they can overcome that defect or they can't. 

That makes +225 fairly strong value for the Nets, considering all of their other advantages. If you view the Nets as a 50-50 proposition between juggernaut and laughingstock, the odds you're getting here lean a bit too far toward the latter. 

The Second Tier

Imagine you'd never seen an NBA game or heard of any of its players. In that scenario, you'd be crazy not to bet on the Jazz or Clippers at these prices. Virtually every agnostic metric views one of them as the championship favorites. Utah has the NBA's best record and net rating. The Clippers have the NBA's most efficient offense. The Jazz rank first by ESPN's BPI and Playoff BPI as well as FiveThirtyEight's ELO championship metric. The Clippers top FiveThirtyEight's RAPTOR rankings. There are a million caveats here relating to health and the fallibility of all catch-all metrics, but based purely on what has happened this season, the Jazz and Clippers are the two worthy favorites, and the arguments against them are frankly somewhat flimsy. 

The Clippers check every box from a talent and stylistic perspective. They were the favorites last season and lost due to a combination of COVID-related health and fitness issues, suboptimal lineup decisions and a stagnant offense in the Disney bubble. They're in better shape on all three fronts now. Utah never had any of those problems. Its flaws are subjective. Champions tend to have superstars, top five players that don't need the schematic enhancement the Jazz's best players get from Quin Snyder and a perfectly constructed roster. It's easy to say that such players were present in hindsight ... but Kawhi Leonard hadn't made an All-Star team when he led the 2014 Spurs to a title. Dirk Nowitzki wasn't considered the best player in any of his last three 2011 playoff series ... and he won them all anyway. Chauncey Billups made his first All-NBA Team two years after the 2004 title. Just because the Jazz lack that player right now doesn't mean they will when the postseason arrives. These things aren't linear. Donovan Mitchell might use the postseason as a stepping stone. 

And despite all of that evidence supporting the Clippers and Jazz, the Bucks are the best championship bet in this group. In fact, if you're planning to bet on Milwaukee, you need to do it now. They have the NBA's 26th-hardest schedule remaining, but that figure is boosted largely by two home games against Brooklyn. Otherwise, it's not even fair to call it a cakewalk. Other than the Nets, they will not play a single team currently in the top six in either conference. If they manage to beat the Harden-less Nets at home twice, they'll earn the tiebreaker over Brooklyn. The Bucks already have it over the Philadelphia 76ers. The No. 1 seed and all of the advantages it offers in a three-team Eastern Conference is still very much in play. 

Even if the Bucks don't get it, they've never been better equipped to win in the postseason than they are today. Their top-heavy roster is going to get a major boost when the rotation theoretically trims in high-leverage games. They've spent the entire season tinkering with their defense to prepare it for the shooting that awaits in the postseason. Even if their late-game offensive flaws persist, Brooklyn isn't built to exploit them. The Nets switch relentlessly on defense. Just ask the Bucks how hard it is to scrap an entire defensive scheme on the fly in the playoffs. Brooklyn's roster lacks the size to build a proper wall at the rim anyway. 

The Nets might out-talent them, because the Nets might out-talent everybody. But everything that made Milwaukee the heavy Eastern Conference favorite over the past two seasons still exists, and many of the weaknesses that prevented it from actually reaching the Finals have been solved. They're the sleeping giant here. The Bucks aren't the Eastern Conference favorites, but at nearly eight-to-one odds, they're the best value on that side of the bracket. 

The Longshots

The 76ers have now lost four consecutive games due in large part to health issues, but those defeats could prove absolutely devastating to their championship hopes. Philadelphia is 53-11 at home over the past two seasons and 29-40 on the road in that span. No team is more dependent on seeding, and the Sixers are blowing their shot at home-court advantage. For the first time since Philly earned the tiebreaker over Brooklyn, Basketball-Reference.com pushed its No. 1 seeds below 50 percent after Saturday's loss. Ben Simmons remains the NBA's most problematic offensive player in the postseason, and until the 76ers prove they can overcome his deficiencies, their title hopes should be viewed skeptically. 

Phoenix's fatal flaw is different. While Milwaukee and Philadelphia stand to benefit from the shorter rotations that coaches tend to use in the playoffs, the Suns rely in large part on their depth to win regular-season games. Their starting lineup has outscored opponents by only 4.8 points per 100 possessions this season, according to Cleaning the Glass. That's fine for a typical lineup. It's underwhelming for a contender's starters. Before injuries forced several players out of their lineup, the Lakers starters were plus-13.9 points per 100 possessions. Utah's starters are plus-10.8. Your best units are what matter in the playoffs, not your worst ones, and Phoenix's best groups are comprised largely of reserves who figure to play smaller roles in the postseason. 

True longshots are rare this season given the depth of true contenders, but Boston at +5000 stands out as interesting value. The Celtics are 7-3 in their past 10 games, and their struggles can be attributed to the unique nature of this season rather than true regression. The four teams to reach the conference finals last season have all dealt with injury issues. Jayson Tatum has had to contend with the long-term impact of COVID-19. But Kemba Walker is averaging over 19 points in his past 14 games, and Jaylen Brown's ascent has eased Walker's burden. Evan Fournier added sorely needed shooting and playmaking. If they can solve their center rotation in time for the playoffs, Boston's raw talent and postseason experience make the Celtics a viable upset threat. 

Dallas is the Western underdog likeliest to benefit from the right bracket. The Mavericks earned the tiebreaker over the Lakers over the weekend, and if they can sneak up to the No. 5 seed, would draw an injury-depleted Nuggets team in the first round. A win in that series would set Dallas up for a second-round battle with the Jazz in which Luka Doncic would be the best player. That doesn't guarantee a victory, but it's a meaningful advantage. If that proves enough to get Dallas into the conference finals, +4000 becomes fairly strong value.