The NBA playoffs begin on April 13th, so we're getting pretty darn close. What follows is everything you need to know about where things stand entering Thursday, March 28th. Teams are listed in order of current seed, with the projected finishing seed, along with the SportsLine data used to determine that finishing seed, below. This post will continue to update for the remainder of the season as we keep track of these races right down to the wire. 

NOTE: Our SportsLine model, developed by predictive data engineer Stephen Oh, simulates the entire season 10,000 times to produce the most unbiased and precise projections imaginable.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Fight for No. 1

Golden State Warriors (No. 1 seed)

The Warriors are tied in the loss column with the Nuggets for the West's No. 1 seed. The two teams still have one matchup left, but Golden State has a much easier remaining schedule otherwise. 

  • Magic Number to clinch top-four seed: One
  • Projected seed: No. 1
  • SportsLine odds: 88.6 percent to get No. 1 seed
  • Current first-round matchup: vs. Spurs
  • Tiebreaker: Currently own tiebreaker 2-1 over Denver (one matchup left)

Denver Nuggets (No. 2 seed)

For a real shot at the No. 1 seed, Denver basically has to win that game against the Warriors on April 2nd. If not, the Warriors will effectively gain two games because that will clinch the tiebreaker for Golden State as well. With one of the toughest schedules in the league down the stretch, Denver faces Houston on Thursday night. 

  • Magic Number to clinch top-four seed: Two
  • Projected seed: No. 2
  • SportsLine odds: 11.4 percent to get No. 1 seed
  • Current first-round matchup: vs. Thunder
  • Tiebreaker: Currently trail Warriors 2-1 head-to-head (one matchup left)

Fight for No. 3 seed

Portland Trail Blazers (No. 3 seed)

The Blazers have clinched a playoff spot and are currently No. 3 in the West because they own the tiebreaker with Houston. Still, our SportsLine projections see them finishing behind Houston, largely because of the loss of Jusuf Nurkic. A top-four seed, as you'll see below, is still looking good. 

  • Magic Number to clinch top-four seed: Five
  • Projected seed: No. 4
  • SportsLine odds: 87.8 percent to get top-four seed
  • Current first-round matchup: vs. Clippers
  • Tiebreaker: Clinched tiebreaker over Houston; already lost tiebreaker to OKC; currently own tiebreaker over Jazz via division record; currently losing tiebreaker to Spurs via conference record

Houston Rockets (No. 4 seed)

The Rockets lost their grip on the No. 3 seed, for the moment, with their loss to the Bucks on Tuesday night. That race for No. 3 is big because it would mean avoiding the Warriors -- assuming they hang onto No. 1 -- in the second round. Though Houston is currently No. 4, SportsLine projections like them to eventually end up with the No. 3 seed. Entering Thursday, they are tied in the loss column with the Blazers, but as you'll see below, the Blazers own the tiebreaker. 

  • Magic Number to clinch top-four seed: Five
  • Projected seed: No. 3
  • SportsLine odds: 91.8 percent to get top-four seed
  • Current first-round matchup: vs. Jazz
  • Tiebreaker:  Clinched tiebreaker over GS, already lost tiebreaker to both OKC and Portland

Utah Jazz (No. 5 seed)

The Jazz have clinched a playoff spot. Our projections like them emerging from a crowded field for the No. 5 seed largely because of their soft remaining schedule, but getting into the top four is not likely. 

  • Magic Number: Clinched Playoffs
  • Projected seed: No. 5
  • SportsLine odds: 17.7 percent to get top-four seed
  • Current first-round matchup: at Rockets
  • Tiebreaker: Clinched tiebreaker over Spurs and Clippers; lost tiebreaker to OKC; currently losing tiebreaker with Houston (division leader)

Los Angeles Clippers (No. 6 seed)

The Clippers have clinched a playoff spot and are currently the No. 6 seed. Our projections have them staying there. Entering play on Thursday, the Clippers have a one-game lead over No. 7 OKC, and a two-game lead over No. 8 San Antonio.  

  • Magic Number: Clinched playoffs
  • Projected seed: No. 6
  • SportsLine odds: 1.5 percent to get top-four seed
  • Current first-round matchup: at Blazers
  • Tiebreaker: Already lost tiebreaker to Jazz, currently losing tiebreaker to Spurs via conference record; currently have slim tiebreaker advantage over OKC via conference record

Oklahoma City Thunder (No. 7 seed)

The Thunder have lost six of their last 10 but got big wins over Indiana and Toronto in two of their last three. For now, that has them in the No. 7 seed and our projections like them to stay there. OKC needs one more win or one Sacramento loss to clinch a playoff berth. 

  • Magic Number to clinch playoff spot: One
  • Projected seed: No. 7
  • SportsLine odds: 1.3 percent to get top-four seed
  • Current first-round matchup: at Nuggets
  • Tiebreaker: Own tiebreaker over Houston, Portland and Utah; already lost tiebreaker to Spurs; currently losing tiebreaker to Clippers

San Antonio Spurs (No. 8 seed)

The Spurs are currently No. 8 and our projections see them staying there. If Denver can supplant Golden State as the No. 1 seed, San Antonio will be happy to stay in the final spot. The good news, if they are eyeing the No. 7 seed, is the Spurs own the tiebreaker over the Thunder. But there is still a ton to shake out with these bottom three, and even four or five, Western seeds. For now, San Antonio needs two more wins, or two Sacramento losses, or a combination of the two, to clinch a playoff spot. 

  • Magic Number to clinch playoff spot: Two
  • Projected seed: No. 8
  • SportsLine odds: 100 percent to make playoffs
  • Current first-round matchup: at Warriors
  • Tiebreaker: Clinched tiebreaker over Thunder via head to head;  currently own tiebreaker over Clippers via conference record; currently own tiebreaker over Blazers via conference record; already lost tiebreaker to Jazz

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Top three seeds pretty set

Milwaukee Bucks (No. 1 seed)

The Bucks have a four-game lead in the loss column over Toronto and they own the tiebreaker. The No. 1 seed, both in the East and overall, is pretty secure at this point. 

  • Magic Number to clinch No. 1 seed: Three
  • Projected seed: No. 1
  • SportsLine odds: 99.8 percent to get No. 1 seed
  • Current first-round matchup: vs. Magic
  • Tiebreaker: Own tiebreaker over Raptors

Toronto Raptors (No. 2 seed)

The Raptors are pretty locked into the East's No. 2 seed -- four games back of No. 1 Milwaukee and four games ahead of No. 3 Philadelphia. The Raptors also own the tiebreaker over Philadelphia making that lead effectively five games. 

  • Magic Number to clinch No. 2 seed: Four
  • Projected seed: No. 2
  • SportsLine odds: 0.2 percent to get No. 1 seed
  • Current first-round matchup: vs. Nets
  • Tiebreaker: Own tiebreaker over Sixers, already lost tiebreaker to Bucks

Philadelphia 76ers (No. 3 seed)

The Sixers have a three-game lead in the loss column over No. 4 Indiana and they also own the tiebreaker, making that lead four games for all intents and purposes. You can pretty much book the Sixers into the No. 3 seed -- over 94 percent according to our projections. 

  • Magic Number to clinch top-four seed: Four
  • Projected seed: No. 3
  • SportsLine odds: 94.8 percent to get No. 3 seed
  • Current first-round matchup: vs. Pistons
  • Tiebreaker: Own tiebreaker over Pacers; already lost tiebreaker to Bucks, Raptors and Celtics

Fight for final home-court spot

Indiana Pacers (No. 4 seed)

The Pacers, who have cliched a playoff spot, are just one game up on the Celtics for the No. 4 seed and the teams have two games remaining. Boston still controls its own destiny to catch the Pacers. The first of those two remaining matchups is this Friday. Because of the one-game cushion at this point, SportsLine projections like Indiana, by an appreciable margin, to hang onto the No. 4 spot. That will change with a Boston win Friday night. 

  • Magic Number to clinch top-four seed: Six
  • Projected seed: No. 4
  • SportsLine odds: 84.2 percent to get top-four seed
  • Current first-round matchup: vs. Celtics
  • Tiebreaker: Already lost tiebreaker to Sixers, season series with Boston tied 1-1 with two to play

Boston Celtics (No. 5 seed)

As mentioned above, the Celtics trail the Pacers by one game for the No. 4 spot with two head-to-head matchups remaining. These two teams will most likely face off in the first round, with home-court advantage being the only thing left to settle. As of Thursday, our projections do not like Boston's chances of catching the Pacers. 

  • Magic Number to clinch playoff spot: One
  • Projected seed: No. 5 
  • SportsLine odds: 16.2 percent to get top-four seed
  • Current first-round matchup: at Pacers
  • Tiebreaker: Clinched tiebreaker over Sixers, season series with Indiana tied 1-1 with two to play

The final three seeds

Brooklyn Nets (No. 6 seed)

This is where things get dicey in the East, with five teams still in the hunt for the final three spots. Brooklyn is the leader in the clubhouse via owning the tiebreaker over the Pistons. The Nets have a brutal schedule down the stretch, thus our projections have them eventually landing at No. 7, but even that is no sure thing. Brooklyn has just a one-game lead in the loss column over No. 9 Miami entering Thursday. 

  • Magic Number to clinch playoff spot: Six
  • Projected seed: No. 7
  • SportsLine Projection: 74.5 percent to make playoffs
  • Current first-round matchup: at Sixers
  • Tiebreaker:  Clinched tiebreaker over Pistons and Magic, trail season series vs. Miami 2-1 with one to play

Detroit Pistons (No. 7 seed)

The Pistons are currently No. 7 because the Nets own the tiebreaker. The two teams are tied in the loss column and the Nets, as mentioned above, have an extremely tough schedule down the stretch, which is why projections favor Detroit to eventually rise back up to No. 6. The Pistons have a huge game Thursday night against current No. 8 seed Orlando, which only trails Detroit by one in the loss column. If the Pistons can win Thursday, it would be an effective two-game swing between them and the Magic because it would give Detroit the season tiebreaker. 

  • Magic Number to clinch playoff spot: Seven
  • Projected seed: No. 6
  • SportsLine odds: 89.8 percent to make playoffs
  • Current first-round matchup: at Raptors
  • Tiebreaker: Currently losing tiebreaker to Miami via Heat being a division leader; already lost tiebreaker to Nets; currently own tiebreaker over Orlando with one matchup remaining

Orlando Magic (No. 8 seed)

Orlando got a monster win over Miami on Tuesday to jump into the final playoff spot. That win also gave Orlando the tiebreaker over Miami via a 3-1 head-to-head advantage. That could very well be the difference in the final seed. The Magic have another huge game against current No. 7 seed Detroit on Thursday night. 

  • Magic number to clinch playoff spot: Seven
  • Projected seed: No. 8
  • SportsLine odds: 73 percent to make playoffs
  • Current first-round matchup: at Bucks
  • Tiebreaker: Clinched tiebreaker over Miami; already lost tiebreaker to Nets; currently trail Pistons via 2-1 deficit in season series with one matchup remaining

Outside Looking In

Miami Heat (No. 9 seed)

The good news for Miami is it owns the tiebreaker, as you'll see below, over Detroit and Brooklyn. The bad news is the Magic are the first team they're chasing and Orlando owns that tiebreaker. This is a photo finish, and our projections have the Heat just missing out. 

  • Projected seed: No. 9
  • SportsLine odds: 50.5 percent to make playoffs
  • Tiebreaker: Currently own tiebreaker over Detroit and Brooklyn; lost tiebreaker to Orlando

Charlotte Hornets (No. 10 seed)

The Hornets are streaking with four straight wins over Minnesota, Boston, Toronto and San Antonio, which has raised their playoff odds considerably in our projections, though they're still a long shot to make it, according to simulations. But listen, basketball isn't played in a simulator. It's played on a court with human beings and Kemba Walker is a bad man. The bottom line is Charlotte is one game back in the loss column of No. 8 Orlando, and they still play the Magic one more time. They're going to have their say. 

  • Projected seed: No. 10
  • SportsLine odds: 12.9 percent to make playoffs
  • Tiebreaker: Currently trail Miami via division record; Currently lead Orlando 2-1 head-to-head with one matchup remaining; Currently trail Brooklyn via conference record (we're talking percentage points separation here)