James Harden and the Houston Rockets host Donovan Mitchell and the Utah Jazz on Wednesday, with tipoff from the Toyota Center set for 8 p.m. ET. Even after a convincing Game 4 victory, Utah still finds itself in a 3-1 hole entering Game 5. With two of the three remaining games coming in Houston, the Jazz have their work cut out for them. Both teams are fully healthy, and the Rockets are listed as an 8.5-point home favorite, while the over-under for total points is 212.5 in the latest Rockets vs. Jazz odds. Before you make any Jazz vs. Rockets picks and NBA predictions, you'll want to see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.

The model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is crushing its NBA picks. It entered Week 28 of the 2018-19 NBA season with a sterling record on its top-rated picks, returning more than $3,500 in profit to anybody following them. And it has been particularly red-hot on its A-rated NBA money line picks, entering Week 28 on a strong 84-57 run. Anybody who has followed it is way up.

Now it has locked in on Jazz vs. Rockets. We can tell you it's leaning over, and it also says one side of the spread hits in nearly 60 percent of simulations. You can only see that selection at SportsLine.

The model is well aware of how important home court advantage is for the Rockets. Houston boasted a 31-10 record at home this year, and its 61.9 percent cover rate at home is the third-best in the NBA. The Rockets have beaten the Jazz in five of their past six meetings, with an average margin of victory of 14 points. 

Utah has had no answer for Harden, who has averaged 28 points and nine assists in the series. What has been surprising is the play of Chris Paul, who has looked like his old self, averaging 18 points, five rebounds, five assists, and three steals. Paul was all over the place in Game 4, putting up 23 points while also contributing eight rebounds, seven assists, and seven combined steals and blocks. His defense has helped in slowing Mitchell down, who has shot just 28.6 percent and posted a negative assist-to-turnover ratio when being defended by Paul.

Bust just because Houston has been strong on its home floor doesn't mean it will cover the Rockets vs. Jazz spread on Wednesday night.

The model is also well aware that this Jazz squad was not much worse than Houston on-paper this season. Their struggles in the series makes the discrepancy between the two teams look larger than it should, but Utah won just three fewer games than the Rockets during the regular season while besting them in many important statistical categories. The Jazz had the NBA's second-best defensive rating and also ranked ahead of Houston in rebounding rate and assist-to-turnover ratio. They also ranked fourth in scoring differential, just ahead of the Rockets. 

Utah split the season series with Houston, which includes an 11-point victory at the Toyota Center. The main issue has been inconsistent shooting, which could correct itself in Game 5. After posting a 53.6 percent effective field goal percentage during the regular season, the Jazz have just a 46.4 percent mark in the 2019 NBA Playoffs. Considering Houston's middle-of-the-pack defensive efficiency this season, a bounce-back could certainly be in the cards for the Jazz.

Who wins Game 5 of Jazz vs. Rockets? And which side of the spread can you bank on in nearly 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Jazz vs. Rockets spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks.