The Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets will meet in the NBA Playoffs for the fourth time in five seasons on Sunday when they take the court at Oracle Arena. It's Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals, so the stakes in the 2019 NBA Playoffs are sky-high. The Warriors won the three previous series, including the hard-fought 2018 Western Conference finals, which they took 4-3. Golden State will have only one night's rest for Sunday's game after eliminating the Los Angeles Clippers on Friday. The Rockets, meanwhile, knocked out the Utah Jazz on Wednesday. Tip-off is set for 3:30 p.m. ET. Golden State is favored by 5.5 in the latest Warriors vs. Rockets odds, down from an open of seven. The over-under for total points scored has fallen sharply on Sunday ahead of tip-off and currently stands at 224, down from an open of 226.5. Before making any Warriors vs. Rockets picks of your own, see the NBA playoff predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is crushing its NBA picks. It entered Week 28 of the 2018-19 NBA season with a sterling record on its top-rated picks, returning more than $3,500 in profit to anybody following them. And it has been particularly red-hot on its A-rated NBA money line picks, entering Week 28 on a strong 84-57 run. Anybody who has followed it is way up. 

Now the model has honed in on Warriors vs. Rockets. We can tell you it is leaning Over, and it has an against-the-spread pick that cashes in over 50 percent of simulations. That one is available only at SportsLine. 

The model has factored in that Warriors forward Kevin Durant is on fire right now. Against the Clippers, he averaged 35.0 points per game while shooting 56.7 percent from the field and 40.0 percent from beyond the arc. In Game 6, he was nearly unstoppable, scoring a career playoff-high 50 points, hitting 15-of-26 from the field and 6-of-14 on 3-pointers. If the regular season is any indication, he's likely to be guarded by fellow Texas product P.J. Tucker, who's an excellent defender, but is giving up three inches to Durant.

The model also has considered that the Warriors will have a healthy Andre Iguodala in this series against the Rockets. Last year, Iguodala missed the last four games of the series with a knee injury. His defensive ability on the perimeter will help Golden State contest Houston's army of 3-point shooters.

But just because Golden State is a prolific offensive team does not guarantee it will cover the Warriors vs. Rockets spread.

Led by James Harden, Houston has unlocked the secret to beating Golden State. Over the last two seasons, the Rockets are 8-6 against the Warriors (including the NBA Playoffs), including 4-2 at Oracle. One of those wins came without Harden, and one came without Paul. The eight wins are twice as many as any other team.

Also, Houston will have a significant defensive edge. The Rockets have been the second best defensive team since the All-Star break, allowing just 105.3 points per 100 possessions. 

So who wins Game 1 of Rockets vs. Warriors? And which side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Rockets vs. Warriors spread you should be all over Sunday, all from the model that's up more than $3,500 on NBA picks this season.