NBA playoffs, betting odds, picks: Bucks, Nets won't struggle scoring in Game 1, but James Harden just might

The Nets and Bucks might be the two best teams in the NBA

Here's a strategy I typically adopt in the second round of the NBA playoffs: If there's a series I suspect will be particularly close (and there almost always is), I bet on multiple possible outcomes within a series trusting that one of them will hit. As an example, say you expect Milwaukee Bucks-Brooklyn Nets to be close. That series is plus-190 to go six total games and plus-200 to go seven. That essentially gives you an even-money bet on the series going at least six. If you want to give yourself a bit more upside, go further and bet exact series outcomes so you can cash in if the underdog ends up winning. Let's use Denver Nuggets-Phoenix Suns as an example, with the assumption that you're willing to risk $100 in total:

Series Outcome	Line	Winnings ($25 bet)
Nuggets in 6	+600	$150
Nuggets in 7	+650	$162.50
Suns in 6	+400	$100
Suns in 7	+375	$93.75

There are other ways to profit off exact series lines, provided your risk tolerance is high enough. Say, for instance, you expect the Nets to beat the Bucks, but trust Milwaukee enough to make it somewhat competitive. Brooklyn is minus-200 at most books in the series, but Brooklyn in five, Brooklyn in six and Brooklyn in seven, as individual outcomes, are all plus-300 or higher. If you don't think a sweep is coming, you're getting far better odds by betting the other outcomes individually. There's more risk to this approach, but hey, you wouldn't be reading this if that bothered you. Speaking of the Nets and Bucks, onto Saturday's top picks for Game 1 of their series.

All lines via William Hill Sportsbook

(2) Brooklyn Nets vs. (3) Milwaukee Bucks

• This is probably going to be a high-scoring series on balance, but I'd expect the opening games to be even more so. Brooklyn can't run its base defense against Milwaukee. The more switching the Nets do, the more mismatches they're giving Giannis Antetokounmpo to exploit at the rim. Eventually, Brooklyn is going to come up with alternatives. It likely won't shut Milwaukee down completely, but given its firepower, it doesn't need to. In Game 1, though, offense should reign supreme. The pick: Over 239
• If you're looking for an area to bet against offense, though, I'd start with James Harden. Jrue Holiday is almost certainly going to get that assignment, whereas Milwaukee's fifth starter, likely Pat Connaughton, won't be able to give Kyrie Irving nearly as much trouble. That won't bother Harden much considering how willing a passer he's become. He topped this line in only two of Brooklyn's five first-round games against Boston. The pick: Harden under 27.5 points

• One of the primary strategic battlegrounds of this series will involve Brook Lopez. Can Brooklyn force him to defend in space often enough to get his offense off the floor? Miami couldn't, and the result was a strong performance on the glass for Milwaukee as a whole. Lopez came in under this rebounding total only once in the first round, and the Nets are even smaller than the Heat. The pick: Lopez over 5.5 rebounds