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The Orlando Magic face a challenging matchup at home on Thursday evening. The Magic welcome the Denver Nuggets to Amway Center, with Orlando entering at 22-33 overall and 13-14 at home. Denver leads the Western Conference with a 38-17 record, including four wins in the last five games. Jamal Murray (knee) is questionable for Denver, while Gary Harris (adductor) is questionable for Orlando.

Caesars Sportsbook lists Denver as a 6-point road favorite, and tip-off is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 231.5 in the latest Nuggets vs. Magic odds. Before you make any NBA predictions with the Magic vs. Nuggets match-up, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven model. 

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model enters Week 17 of the 2022-23 NBA season on a stunning 52-28 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $2,000. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Nuggets vs. Magic and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Magic vs. Nuggets:

  • Nuggets vs. Magic spread: Nuggets -6
  • Nuggets vs. Magic over/under: 231.5 points
  • Nuggets vs. Magic money line: Nuggets -220, Magic +180
  • DEN: The Nuggets are 10-15 against the spread in road games
  • ORL: The Magic are 16-11 against the spread in home games
  • Nuggets vs. Magic picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why the Nuggets can cover

Denver has the best record and the best net rating (+4.5) in the Western Conference this season, with impressive metrics on both ends. While the attention is on the offense for the Nuggets, Denver is in the top eight of the NBA in defensive rebound rate, second-chance points, and 3-point percentage allowed in 2022-23. The Nuggets also create 7.7 steals per game, a top-10 figure, and Denver is facing an Orlando offense that is No. 25 in overall efficiency and No. 27 in assists.

On offense, the Nuggets are incredibly efficient, leading the NBA with 117.8 points per 100 possessions. Denver leads the league in field goal percentage and 3-point percentage, and the Nuggets are in the top five in 2-point shooting, assist-to-turnover ratio and fast break points per game. Michael Malone's team generates extra possessions with a 28.6% offensive rebound rate, and the Nuggets score nearly 55 points in the paint per game, putting consistent pressure on opposing defenses.

Why the Magic can cover

Orlando is outplaying its record in the recent past. The Magic are 17-13 in the last 30 games, posting a top-10 winning percentage in the NBA over that extended sample. Orlando has three young players averaging at least 15 points per game, and the Magic are in the top five of the NBA in free throw creation, averaging 25.8 attempts per game. The Magic produce 14.6 second-chance points per game on the offensive glass, and Orlando is facing a Denver defense that is yielding 48.1% shooting from the field and 56.1% from inside the 3-point arc. 

On defense, the Magic are in the top 10 of the league in points allowed in the paint (47.9 per game), 3-point defense (35.0%), and second-chance points allowed (13.1 per game). Orlando is also above-average in defensive rebound rate (72.5%), and the Nuggets are in the bottom third of the NBA in turnovers (15.0 per game), free throw attempts (22.9 per game), and free throw accuracy (74.9%) on offense.

How to make Magic vs. Nuggets picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, predicting a combined 237 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in nearly 60% of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Nuggets vs. Magic? And which side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Magic vs. Nuggets spread you need to jump on Thursday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.