Numbers say Heat are fine without Chris Bosh, but don't be fooled
All indications are that Chris Bosh will miss the entire playoffs, and the Heat, contrary to what the numbers say, will surely miss him.
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Nobody, least of all this author, was expecting Chris Bosh to suit up and play for the Miami Heat this postseason.
Dwyane Wade all but announced the reality on Friday: He won't.
"Someone who lived for this moment, someone who envisioned these moments -- especially after last year -- he doesn't have the ability to be in it," Wade said of his friend and teammate, who has been sidelined by blood clots for a second straight season.
"Once you've been in it, once you've been a champion, this is the season," Wade said. "This is the season that really counts."
Bosh's message?
"Don't take this for granted," Wade said.
Nobody does, and nobody should.
Wade just revealed Bosh spoke to the Heat today about the playoffs. "He doesn't have the ability to be in it," Wade said.
— Tim Reynolds (@ByTimReynolds) April 15, 2016
AP Video. Dwyane Wade on Chris Bosh, and Bosh's words to the Heat. pic.twitter.com/rcQRXn1nMo
— Tim Reynolds (@ByTimReynolds) April 15, 2016
Unlike last season, the blood clots in his leg did not travel to his lungs -- though Bosh reportedly has been treated with blood thinners, which could make it dangerous for him to be involved in what is very much a full-contact sport.
What does this mean for Miami's postseason chances? Based on their performance in Bosh's absence, the Heat remain very much a threat in the East.
When Bosh last played on Feb. 9, the Heat were 29-24 (.547). Without him, they finished the season 19-10 (.630) and emerged from a four-team pileup to secure the No. 3 seed. They open the postseason on Sunday at home against the Charlotte Hornets. Even without Bosh, they are slight favorites to win the series.
With Bosh on the floor this season, the Heat posted a 102.0 offensive rating and a 100.3 defensive rating, good for a plus-1.7 net. Without Bosh, Miami has a 105.9 offensive rating -- scoring nearly four points more per 100 possessions -- and a 102.6 defensive rating. Overall, they're plus-3.3 without Bosh. That's a difference of 1.6 points per 100 possessions, which could reasonably be the difference in a playoff game.
But don't be fooled. The Heat's improved numbers without Bosh can be attributed more to coach Erik Spoelstra's creative deployment of his resources than to any notion that the Heat are better off without Bosh. Goran Dragic thrives in the more up-tempo attack Miami has adopted in Bosh's absence, with Luol Deng sliding to power forward. Josh Richardson and Joe Johnson have filled in some of the gaps.
The Heat are more explosive offensively without Bosh, quite simply, because they had to be. His length, versatility and experience on defense are sorely missed. During the grind of an 82-game regular season, you can atone for some of that with faster pace and more points.
In the crucible of a best-of-7 series, defense usually prevails. This is where Bosh's presence will be missed the most.
With a healthy, fully functioning Bosh, the Heat were a threat to reach what would've been a dream matchup in the Eastern Conference Finals against former teammate LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers. Without him, they have to hope they can outscore the Hornets enough to advance to a second-round matchup with Toronto -- a matchup in which they probably won't be able to get enough stops to win.
As Wade said, this is the season that really counts. It's also the season when the Miami Heat need -- and will miss -- Chris Bosh the most.
















