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The Toronto Raptors and the New Orleans Pelicans will take the floor for their first action of 2021 on Saturday evening. The Raptors are just 1-3 on the season, though Toronto won its last game to stop a losing skid. The Pelicans are 3-2 overall with a 1-0 mark at home. Patrick McCaw (knee) is out of action for Toronto, with Wenyen Gabriel (knee) out for New Orleans.

Tip-off is at 7:30 p.m. ET in New Orleans. William Hill Sportsbook lists Toronto as a 1.5-point road favorite, holding steady from the opener, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 215 in the latest Raptors vs. Pelicans odds. Before making any Pelicans vs. Raptors picks, you'll want to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from the model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it returned over $5,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks last season. The model is up nearly $8,100 over the past two seasons. Dating back to last season, it is on a stunning 62-36 roll on top-rated picks against the spread, returning almost $2,200 on those selections alone. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Raptors vs. Pelicans. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Pelicans vs. Raptors:

  • Raptors vs. Pelicans spread: Raptors -1.5
  • Raptors vs. Pelicans over-under: 215 points
  • Raptors vs. Pelicans money line: Raptors -120, Pelicans +100
  • TOR: The Raptors are 1-3 against the spread in 2020-21
  • NO: The Pelicans are 2-3 against the spread this season

Why the Raptors can cover

The Raptors haven't played at their optimal level yet this season, but Toronto's defense remains elite. Nick Nurse's team is allowing just 1.02 points per possession, with opponents posting an unsightly effective field goal percentage of 50.6 percent. That mark of opponent's shooting efficiency is in the top-five of the NBA, with the No. 2 mark in turnover creation rate at 19.6 percent. 

New Orleans is also struggling offensively, ranking in the bottom six of the NBA in points per possession and turnover rate. Offensively, Toronto can take solace in the play of Kyle Lowry, Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet. Lowry leads the team in scoring (19.5 points per game) and assists (8.3 per game), while Siakam adds 18.7 points and 9.0 rebounds and VanVleet contributes 17.3 points, 6.3 assists and high-end perimeter defense.

Why the Pelicans can cover

The Pelicans have been potent defensively so far this season, allowing 104.8 points per 100 possessions. That comes with the No. 1 defensive rebound rate in the NBA at 79.8 percent, and the Pelicans rank in the top 10 in free throw rate allowed and turnover creation rate (16.9 percent). Toronto is also struggling offensively, scoring fewer than one point per possession in non-garbage time situations this season. 

The Raptors are dead-last in the NBA in free throw rate, with bottom-tier marks in shooting efficiency, turnover rate (17.1 percent) and offensive rebound rate (22.5 percent). New Orleans should also be able to put pressure on the rim, headlined by the contributions of Zion Williamson and one of the league's best offensive rebounding teams.

How to make Raptors vs. Pelicans picks

The model leaning under on the total, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Pelicans vs. Raptors? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Raptors vs. Pelicans spread to jump on, all from the model that is on an incredible 62-36 roll.